Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 9

Fantasy Football: Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 9

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate Fantasy Football predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story. Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

*Funnel Defense refers to a noticeable difference in DVOA between pass defense and rush defense.

Pass Funnel Defenses:

TB (Pass: 32nd, Run: 15th), NO (Pass:29th, Run: 2nd), CAR (Pass: 20th, Run: 7th), DAL (Pass: 24th, Run: 4th), HOU (Pass: 14th, Run: 1st)

New Orleans ranks 29th against the pass and 2nd against the run

One of the marquee matchups of the week will take us down to New Orleans, where Saints will play host to the LA Rams. This game will feature two of the best offenses in league, as the Rams rank second in offensive efficiency and the Saints rank fourth. The interesting matchup to watch, is whether or not Todd Gurley and the Rams will be able to have success running the ball. New Orleans currently ranks 29th in pass defense efficiency, but 2nd against the run. Not only could this possibly put a lid on the normal Gurley explosions, but McVay is notorious for exploiting the weak points of the defense. I by no means would recommend fading Gurley, but I think that Goff and the pass catchers will be poised for a big day. It will be a tough environment the young QB, but I think he should have success in this spot.

Run Funnel Defenses:

KC (Pass: 13th, Run: 32), PHI (Pass: 12th, Run: 23rd), WAS (Pass: 9th, Run: 22nd), LAR (Pass: 6th, Run: 25th), DEN (Pass: 2nd, Run: 28th), CLE (Pass: 1st, Run: 27th)

Overall Inefficient Defenses:

TB (32nd), ATL (31st), DET (30th), OAK (29th), NYG (28th), NO (27th)

Tampa Bay ranks 32nd in overall defensive efficiency

One of the other high total games will feature the Tampa Bay Bucs and the Carolina Panthers. This game has a total has risen up to 55 total points, with the Panthers currently sitting as a -6 favorite. I will be on both offenses from this game, but in terms of defensive efficiency, it doesn’t get any better than this for the Carolina offense. Tampa Bay currently ranks 32nd in overall defensive efficiency, which will be a welcomed change of pace for the Carolina offense. The last three weeks, they’ve face the Redskins (ranked 14 in defensive efficiency), the Eagles (ranked 15th) and the Ravens (ranked 6th). The Tampa Bay defense is severely banged up, and I think Cam, who thrives against inferior opponents, should have a big day on Sunday.

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