With Wednesday’s games out of the way, we’re onto the last two knockout round MLS playoff games. Here’s what to expect.
D.C. United vs. Columbus Crew
X-Factor: Columbus’s aggressiveness on the ball. The way that D.C. United play will be determined by whether the Crew actively attempt to build from the back.
From Columbus’s perspective
In years past, the Crew relied on risk-reward propositions. They played short goal kicks, shuttered their full-backs as wide as possible and played possession soccer. It’s Gregg Berhalter’s thing, and it’s how he’s consistently overperformed with an under-budget squad and emerged as the definitive favorite to get the USMNT job.
Some of those elements are still there for Berhalter and co. Harrison Afful is still playing right-back, and Wil Trapp is still dropping between the center-backs and distributing. This year, though, they’ve edged toward conservatism. They gave up 43 goals in the regular season (DCU gave up 60) and they’ve drastically cut down disastrous errors playing out of the back.
Center-back Jonathan Mensah is in the Defender of the Year conversation, and their other central defenders (Josh Williams, Lalas Abubakar, Gaston Sauro) have held their own. As consistently as the Crew lose games they’re supposed to win, they keep the ball out of their net.
The toothlessness of the attack necessitates this adjustment. No longer can they truly play through inverted wingers (Ethan Finlay is gone and Justin Meram has bizarrely nosedived in effectiveness) and Federico Higuain is too old to save them from Pedro Santos and a depleted Meram. At forward, Gyasi Zardes doesn’t provide the same gravity as his predecessors Kei Kamara and Ola Kamara.
Columbus will still play pretty soccer, and the overlapping of Afful and left-back Milton Valenzuela can be dynamic. But they haven’t counter-attacked to any great degree this year. Santos is a dreadful decision maker on the ball. Zardes touches the ball less than any high-minutes player in the entire league. It’s doubtful that the Crew can keep up with D.C.’s firepower.
They’ve always found a way, though. Last year, when they nearly ousted Toronto FC and advanced to MLS Cup, they entered as an outright dark-horse and in the immediate aftermath of the relocation news. (Thankfully, the Crew have officially been Saved since.) Berhalter is a tactical genius. Anything can happen.
From D.C. United’s perspective
With Luciano Acosta and Wayne Rooney playing out of their minds, D.C. is a popular pick to emerge out of the Eastern Conference. Russell Canouse has solidified the midfield and by extension the once-shaky backline. They have playmaking and speed on the flanks in Paul Arriola and Yamil Asad. Hometown favorite Bill Hamid is back in goal.
Excitement is justified. United haven’t lost since August, and they’ve beaten the likes of Atlanta, NYCFC and FC Dallas since, plus an obliteration of a pesky Montreal team fighting for their lives a month ago.
Acosta is unstoppable with the slivers of freedom Rooney’s presence has given him. He’s gained the confidence to take on the world with the famous Englishmen always available to calm down tough on-field situations. Lucho could exploit Trapp’s lack of athleticism by charging at the Crew up the middle.
It’s anyone’s guess as to the wrinkles that Berhalter will throw at Ben Olsen. He could position Trapp further upfield to cut off Acosta earlier in D.C.’s possession, and potentially make things simpler for Mensah and Williams against Rooney. In possession, he could shift one of the full-backs into the midfield and pull Arriola or Asad from the touchline.
Olsen will have counters to those. Against an advanced Trapp, Acosta will have more opportunities to run at him on the ball, a favorable matchup for DCU. Inverting one of Valenzuela or Afful runs contrary to what Berhalter has done to maximize the Crew’s possession, and it risks getting beat anyway in the middle of the field.
D.C.’s full-backs don’t usually get forward a ton, but the Crew are the most vulnerable team to overlaps in the league given the lack of damage their wingers can do in the opposite direction. Olsen might consider licensing whoever plays full-back (Joseph Mora? Vythas? Even Arriola?) with the freedom to advance on the flanks.
United is no doubt the favorite. Acosta and Rooney could go out and dominate. Asad is a genius passer. The backline, as thin as it is at full-back, has stabilized from early season woes. Hamid brings concerns at goalkeeper (mainly dealing with crosses), but just like the Crew’s Zack Steffen, he has game-breaking abilities.
Berhalter will want a chess match. Olsen may not.
LAFC vs. Real Salt Lake
X-Factor: Defensive midfield, on both sides. Neither team is strong there. Whichever weakness shows itself more could decide this game.
From LAFC’s perspective
After Mark-Anthony Kaye was sidelined for the season, Bob Bradley threw his eggs in one basket: LAFC put their foot on the ball in the attacking half and try to pass you to death with little regard for dropping back on defense, neutralizing weaknesses in the areas Kaye would have covered. They don’t play a true, discernable center midfielder. Few teams have done that in MLS and not been sliced apart.
LAFC make it work. They remain error-prone and slow in central defense, but they will throw as many passing maestros on the field as possible and hope talent wins out. Carlos Vela is naturally the fulcrum; he’s produced the most on the attacking end (14 goals, 13 assists) and presents the biggest threat for RSL.
The midfield three could end up being Eduard Atuesta, Benny Feilhaber and Lee Nguyen. Atuesta will play the most defense of the three, given Feilhaber and Nguyen were centerpiece playmakers elsewhere for years. Good teams should pull this midfield apart and win the majority of duels — these guys are in there because they can pass, not because they can defend.
It remains to be seen if RSL is a good team. The good bet is they’re not. Albert Rusnak has to fully embrace the role of orchestrator to effectively attack LA’s midfield, and that hasn’t happened this season — his touch percentage is 8.9, low for a player in his role.
LA have the edge, based on talent and the general consistency of that talent. You know you’ll get Diego Rossi’s slashing runs from the wing and the horizontal distribution between Feilhaber and Nguyen. Sometimes, Bradley disregards the traditional number 6 position entirely and hands the reigns completely go Feilhaber and Nguyen.
That’s what happened in their penultimate 2-2 draw with feuding Vancouver:
Those two can tear you up if given the opportunity. With Vela inverting and combining with the midfield, in addition to clever Rossi and Adama Diomande runs, LA’s attack can be hard to stop.
Counters in the other direction are the concern. The full-backs (the experience duo of Steven Beitashour and Jordan Harvey, most likely) will venture forward at times. Walker Zimmerman has struggled this season. LA are a make-or-miss team, with a whole lot of “make” potential.
It helps that they’ll play against an even more make-or-miss team, with plenty more “miss” potential.
From RSL’s perspective
In the battle of acronyms, LAFC look better on paper than RSL. Real would have missed the postseason if not for an all-time LA Galaxy choke job, and despite assorted blowout victories, their goal differential is minus-3. They might play disappointing center midfielder Damir Kreilach as a false 9 instead of consensus Rookie of the Year Corey Baird. They’re a bit of an oddball team.
Wingers Jefferson Savarino and Joao Plata ooze skill, but they can be brutally inconsistent — Savarino’s underlying attacking numbers are blah, and Plata fades out of games. The midfield, featuring an aging Kyle Beckerman and no-frills number eight Sunny, won’t make a difference on the ball. They’ll have trouble keeping up with Vela and a channel-running Rossi.
If RSL lose, they may lose big. There’s always a chance they come out of their shell and dominate, but this being the postseason against a Bob Bradley team that has owned Real all season (a combined 7-1 for LA in two matchups), a breakout performance feels unlikely.