NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Thursday November 1

Welcome to the Thursday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Wednesday’s NBA DFS slate was one for me personally that fate smiled upon but I know many of you were not so lucky. As mentioned in yesterday’s Picks and Pivots, I went heavy on a Utah-Minnesota stack and thankfully the one guy I did not include was Tyus Jones who was ruled out well after lock and actually minutes after the game had “started” so late swap would not have even come into play. Jones was 66% owned in the FantasyDraft $25 GPP which simply crushed the field and meanwhile the duo of Derrick Rose and Karl-Anthony Towns led all fantasy performers with 69 and 65 fantasy points on the evening.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Core Build:

Can I just start by saying how much I love the NBA schedule so far this season – we have another solid six game slate tonight and it feels like so far we are getting these 6-8 game slates every single night as opposed to 10+ game slates followed by 2-3 gamers. I love how this has set up for NBA DFS as the player pool is large enough for GPP’s but not completely overwhelming for the everyday player.

Looking at this slate we have a series of high totals (four of 226 or higher and still waiting on POR/NO which will likely make it five of the six games) and no single spread over 5 points as of this writing so we have a ton of high and tight games to build around. Two teams, the Nuggets and Pelicans are on the tail end of back to backs as well with the Nuggets having to go to OT last night in Chi-town and the Pelicans traveling to Portland after a shootout in Golden State.

For me though, my core is simple as it has been in every single game since he returned for Oklahoma City as Russell Westbrook ($19.1K) remains under $20K on FantasyDraft. Westbrook is back to doing typical Westbrook things since his return with a 35% usage rate and 1.56 FP/M and I think the over-looked aspect of his return is how fast OKC is playing – as they rank third in the NBA in pace since he came back into the line-up.

I will continue to beat the drum for Paul George ($17.2K) as an elite GPP play as he has been 1% owned on each of his last two slates and was the leading scorer on the slate the last time the thunder played. Everyone jumps on the “other guy” in NBA DFS when there is an injury and they just as quickly jump off when the stars return which is why with Westbrook back, everyone seems to forget about PG13.

George is ranked 4th in the NBA in 3PA per game at just under 10 and his ability to rack up peripheral stats including last game where he got 12 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 blocks, gives him an incredibly high ceiling at basically no ownership as long as he stays at this price.

Steven Adams ($13.4K) is the perfect correlation play in stacking OKC as he just racks up fantasy points (38+ in four of his five games) and does so without any usage and all based off secondary stats and easy scores.

What I really love about this mini-stack is that there really is only one piece worth running it back with – Kemba Walker ($16.2K) who has a 32% usage rate while averaging just under 50 fantasy points per game. Outside of Kemba, I just do not see a ton to like here – I suppose you can make a case for Nicolas Batum if you are full on game stacking but he is priced up at over $11K and will have to deal with PG13 defense. I would rather go with Jeremy Lamb ($8.9K) for a considerable discount against a OKC team ranked dead last in the NBA in fantasy points to opposing SG’s.

This looks like a nice spot to build around the Thunder trio and run it back with Kemba who will have to shoulder quite the load in what is expected to be a high scoring game (227.5) with a close spread (CHA by 1.5).

NBA DFS – Value Plays:

Looking over this slate we actually do not have a ton of “new” injury news which is normally what drives much of the NBA DFS discussion as we saw yesterday once Jimmy Butler/Jeff Teague were ruled out you could not go into an article or podcast without hearing Derrick Rose or Tyus Jones mentioned.

The only real injury news we are waiting on is Jaylen Brown who is questionable for the Celtics who take on the Bucks in the lowest total game on the slate. If Brown were to miss it would likely give a nice boost to Terry Rozier ($8.5K) and/or Marcus Smart ($7.8K). Looking back at last season and trying to find a game in which Kyrie Irving played and Brown sat, it looks like it was Marcus Smart who made his way into the starting line-up and if that is the case again tonight, Smart would become one of the better point per dollar value plays on the slate at this price point.

The one guy I have some interest in on this slate from a GPP perspective is Gordon Hayward ($9.4K) which is really driven by how far his price has fallen. Yes, I know he is on a minutes limit, playing 23-25 minutes per game but as a reminder, coach Brad Stevens said Hayward would be on that limit for the first two weeks, which we are now past and he played a season high in minutes last game (yes I know 26 is not a crazy boost over his 23 minutes the previous two games) but if Jaylen Brown does sit out, could we see those minutes creep up to 28-29? Nobody is playing Hayward right now but he has put up back to back games with double-digit shot attempts and there is some GPP appeal here in being early to the party before his price and role “formally” increase.

NBA DFS – Pivot to the “Bad Teams”

OK maybe it is unfair to put the Sacramento Kings into this grouping as they have started out the season under a new coach 5-3 but let’s be honest, did you really think you would open up this slate and prioritize a Kings/Hawks stack?

These two teams play at the first and second fastest paces in the NBA which is why we have a slate leading 231 game total in this one. The nice part of this stack is that no player costs more than $13.5K so you can pretty easily build a game stack here on FantasyDraft without much of an issue if you choose.

Buddy Hield ($12.4K) is coming off back to back games with 47 fantasy points while teammate Nemanja Bjelica ($12.1K) is sporting 1.3 FP/M in his last three games. You want to run it back with Trae Young and Alex Len ($9.6K) who just dropped 40+ on the Cavs? You can certainly make the case as well.

Here is my take – this SHOULD be a pivot spot but writing this at 6AM EST, I could see the total and the game log watchers driving this game to be everyone’s “sneaky stack of the day” which by the way – tends to not be sneaky if everyone thinks the same.

The Cavaliers are now one game removed from Ty Lue and we saw more or less the same rotations under the new regime although it was interesting to see J.R. Smith get a DNP CD. Collin Sexton and Jordan Clarkson really drove the second unit with 25 FGA combined but as much as we want them to make a youth movement here – they still managed to play Sam Dekker 29 minutes.

The match-up with the Nuggets may not be the perfect spot to attack but this Denver team just played a OT game against the Bulls and now has to travel to Cleveland after they ran Jamal Murray 44 minutes and Gary Harris 38 minutes. The Cavs played at a crazy fast pace last game which was surely driven by the opponent (Atlanta) but the usage for Clarkson and Sexton at north of 24% each trailed only Larry Nance Jr. for the team lead and if we continue to see their minutes trend up while veterans like George Hill (only 20 minutes last game), we could jump on this youth movement before it starts.

NBA DFS – Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:

The sample line-up as shown below is NOT an optimized Plug and Play line-up and is meant for illustrative purposes only. 

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G: Russell Westbrook ($19.1K)

G: Kemba Walker ($16.2K)

G: Marcus Smart ($7.8K)

F/C: Paul George ($17.2K)

F/C: Steven Adams ($13.4K)

F/C: Jerami Grant ($8.2K)

UTIL: Collin Sexton ($8.9K)

UTIL: Jordan Clarkson ($9.1K)

Slate Overview: Going into today I am all over the Thunder-Hornets game as my core and really want to keep an eye on how the industry treats these other games, specifically the Kings and Hawks as I could see that game becoming the fast paced industry darling with recent game logs to support their case. Oddly enough we do not have a ton of injury news but I do think the Jaylen Brown injury is important as it could push Smart/Rozier into the starting line-up against the Bucks.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest DFS NBA news and Fantasy Basketball analysis all season long!