Nylon Calculus: Nemanja Bjelica is giving the Kings a different look
By Ian Levy
The 5-3 Sacramento Kings have been one of the NBA’s biggest surprises and the emergence of Nemanja Bjelica has, quietly, been one of their biggest drivers of success. The veteran European forward had an unusual summer, originally agreeing to a contract with the 76ers before backing out with the intention of returning to Europe. Another change of heart led to a three-year, $20 million in Sacramento.
This is just Bjelica’s fourth season in the NBA, despite being 30 years old, spending the early part of his basketball life establishing himself as a Euroleague star. He spent his first three NBA season with the Timberwolves, never averaging more than 7.0 points per game or topping 1500 minutes in a season.
Given that sample, the numbers he’s putting up this season are fairly eye-popping. Bjelica is averaging 15.1 points, 6.5 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 1.3 steals and 1.0 blocks per game, in less than 30 minutes. His surprisingly capable defense has been a gift for the Kings but the different look he’s giving the Kings on offense has been transformational, specifically his 54.5 3-point percentage on 6.8 attempts per 100 possessions.
Last season, Zach Randolph and Skal Labissiere played about 53 percent of the Kings’ power forward minutes, according to Basketball-Reference’s position estimates. Todd Whitehead’s incredibly detailed work on defining offensive roles characterizes both Randolph and Labissiere as “Bigs With Skills Everywhere”, a skill group that is characterized primarily by post-ups, spot-ups and screening in the pick-and-roll. Randolph and Labissiere did combine for about 200 3-point attempts last season but both hit about 35 percent and neither finished more than 16 percent of their possessions on spot-ups.
Bjelica is a completely different sort of player, even though he’s played 54 percent of Sacramento’s power forward minutes, about the same share as Randolph and Labissiere played together last year. Listed at 6-foot-10 and 240 pounds, he is characterized by Whitehead’s system as a “Stationary Spot-Up Wing.” As the name implies, this player top primarily operates as a spot-up threat — 42 percent of his possessions were spot-ups last season and he ranked in the 79th percentile in scoring efficiency on those possessions. Bjelica is doing far less spotting-up this season, just 29 percent of his possessions, but his point per possession have jumped all the way to an absurd 1.29.
His ability to space the floor has been enormous for the effectiveness of the players around him. De’Aaron Fox, whose improved finishing and relentless dribble penetration has gotten the most attention on the surging Kings, has an effective field goal percentage nearly 20 percentage points higher when Bjelica is on the floor. Willie Cauley-Stein’s effective field goal percentage increases by 10 points when on the floor with Bjelica. In fact, according to pbpstats.com, every King who has played at least 50 minutes with Bjelica and without him this season has seen an ENORMOUS increase in effective field goal percentage when they’re sharing the floor.
Labissiere and Randolph were less than effective last year but they at least offered some versatility and diversity in their offensive role. Bjelica plays a much simpler offensive game and has been far more effective in it. By extension, every other King appears to be benefiting greatly from the gravity his shooting commands from the perimeter.
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Whether Bjelica can keep up his hot shooting numbers remains to be seen. His three years in Minnesota wouldn’t inspire much confidence that he can be this effective with this much offensive responsibility. But you can’t ignore the bulk of what he did overseas, including winning the 2014-15 Euroleague MVP. At worst, he’s established himself as an accurate and willing outside shooter, the kind who should continue to manipulate space for his teammates.