NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday November 2

Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Thursday’s NBA DFS slate saw some monster winning scores pushing over 380 points on FantasyDraft as three players went for 60+ fantasy points including De’Aaron Fox (71), Joel Embiid (69) and Russell Westbrook (60). 

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Core Build:

We have a nice looking eight game slate tonight to jump-start our NBA DFS weekend before we get into all the NFL, College Football and even UFC goodness. We already have some big injury news to monitor with Donovan Mitchell ruled OUT, Devin Booker questionable and James Harden doubtful for tonight with an eye on a return to the Rockets on Saturday.

I say this every time he is on the slate, but for as long as Russell Westbrook ($19.4K) is priced under $20K, I just see no reason not to simply lock him in every night. Westbrook is coming off a 60 fantasy point outing last night with 29 points, 10 assists and 8 rebounds and it is that upside you are going after every single night in NBA DFS by rostering him.

This Thunder-Wizards game has a 230 total (second highest on the slate as of this writing) with a 3 point spread – the perfect game environment for a core stack in my opinion. Since Westbrook’s return to the OKC line-up this team is playing at the 3rd fastest pace in the NBA and overall this game features the 5th fastest team (Washington) versus the 6th fastest team (OKC) in terms of pace. Washington by the way also happens to be ranked 25th in defensive rating – so all things are pointing towards OKC and Washington being where I start my builds tonight..

Another night of NBA DFS and another night where Paul George ($16.5K) gets completely ignored by the NBA DFS community – as he was 4% owned last night and came in as the 9th highest scorer on the slate, one game after being the top performer on his slate.

If I played PG last night at $17.2K, I am for sure taking the $700 savings tonight and going right back to him. PG13 put up 43 fantasy points last night – solid right – but dig deeper – he went 4-20 from the field and 0-10 from three-point range. No seriously, he basically could not score and STILL put up 42+ fantasy points. Imagine if some of those shots go in? Right back to my man again tonight.

Steven Adams ($13.1K) is going to be a correlation piece for me every time I stack the Thunder as he scored all of 5 real life points last night and still worked his way to 31 fantasy points. Tonight, he gets a Wizards front court welcoming back Dwight Howard who Adams averaged a double-double and 37 FPTS against in two meetings in Charlotte last season.

NBA DFS – Wizards Welcome Back Dwight:

When your team is 1-6 and your coach is on the hot seat, nothing typically fixes all that more than welcoming back Dwight Howard (hello sarcasm).

First, off, I am not playing Dwight Howard against Steven Adams defense and when you read this report that he could barely jump (a skill I have heard is important in basketball) just a week ago – I am not going in on Mr. Howard quite yet.

If you are playing Washington it very simply starts with the back-court – John Wall ($15K) and Bradley Beal ($13.5K) who have accounted for over 60% of the usage so far from Washington this season. This is really where it all starts and ends for me as by zeroing in on Wall/Beal on the Washington side and running it back with Westbrook/PG13 on the other – you are capturing nearly all the usage in the fastest pace game of the night.

With Howard back it makes Ian Mahimi a tough sell and although I suppose you can argue fringe pieces like Otto Porter Jr or Markieff Morris, I hesitate to attack the wing defense of OKC with Paul George waiting there.If you are going to run the fringe pieces from the game, I would honestly lean more towards the OKC side, specifically Jerami Grant ($7.6K) who is locked into the starting PF role and his high energy, peripheral based fantasy game correlates in a similar fashion to Steven Adams at essentially half the cost.

NBA DFS – Value Plays and Pivots:

In order to fit in a high-cost stack like OKC-Washington, it means finding value and there will likely be no higher-owned value play than Dante Exum($7.4K) who will step into an expanded role with Donovan Mitchell out for Utah tonight. Exum was on the court down the stretch for the Jazz last game when Mitchell came off and responded with 26 FPTS in 25 minutes of court time. In fact, in nearly 70 minutes of court time this season with Mitchell off the floor, Exum is sporting a team-high 28% usage rate and will be one of the best value plays on this slate and likely one of the chalkiest.

Outside of Exum, I cannot envision many going “all-in” on the Jazz in a slow-paced game against Memphis but I think expanding your Utah player pool is a viable strategy with Mitchell out. Take a look at the rotations last game as outside of the starting five, only Jae Crowder, Dante Exum and Royce O’Neale saw any material run (30, 25 and 18 minutes). With Mitchell out tonight and Alec Burks questionable, we could see O’Neale continue to gain more bench run as he has played 15-17 minutes in each of his last four games and at only $6.3K he could make for a low-owned punt play from the Utah side.

Minnesota and Golden State will face-off tonight and it is expected that Jimmy Butler will return to this dysfunctional Wolves squad while Jeff Teague remains questionable. if Teague were to miss again, could we go back to Derrick Rose ($10.4K) after his 50 burger? Sure, I guess but what about…going back..to…Tyus Jones ($7.2K)?

Yes, Tyus Jones – the guy who burned the entire world last game with a post-lock scratch as one of the highest owned plays on the slate. If Teague misses, aren’t all the reasons you wanted to play him before still valid? Yes, Butler is back (we assume) and Jones is listed as questionable but if you are playing in a large field GPP – I love the idea of taking a shot at a guy who was just 60-70% owned and will now be lucky to crack double-digit ownership. You feeling lucky?

Last but not least – is it BOBAN time? Boban Marjanovic ($7.4K) continues to be the ultimate GPP dart as the definition of a boom/bust play. Take a look through his recent game logs:

• Washington – 11 minutes – 13 pts/9 rebounds/2 blocks and 31 FPTS
• OKC – 10 minutes – 5 pts/2 rebounds/3 blocks and 14 FPTS
• Last night against Philly – 23 minutes – 15 points/11 rebounds/3 blocks and 38 FPTS

The range of outcomes is wide with old Boban but from a GPP perspective he is one of those rare punt plays that has the ability to crush value on any given night. His volatility is scary and after playing a season high in minutes it may be a bad idea to chase this on a back to back, but with Nikola Vucevic on the other side of this game, the Clippers could need him again to help protect the interior.

NBA DFS – Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:

Please note – the Sample Line-up below is illustrative ONLY and is not meant to be a Plug and Play line-up. 

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G: Russell Westbrook ($19.4K)

G: John Wall ($15K)

G: Bradley Beal ($13.5K)

F/C: Paul George ($16.5K)

F/C: Steven Adams ($13.1K)

F/C: Jerami Grant ($7.6K)

UTIL: Dante Exum ($7.2K)

UTIL: BOBAN ($7.4K) 

Slate Overview: Even with eight games on the slate, I find the Thunder and Wizards being by far my favorite spot to attack here tonight and this goes for cash games and GPP alike. We have two of the fastest pace teams in the NBA and one of the worst defensive teams (Washington) and a core group of players that essentially take up all the fantasy production. In a high and tight game environment (230 total and 3 pt spread), this is a game stack I think you can use in any format and mix and max a few value pieces to make it work. Enjoy tonight’s slate and let’s get our weekend started off with a bang…or a Boban.

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