Stick’s Picks – NFL FantasyDraft Week 9 GPP Targets

Stick’s Picks – NFL FantasyDraft Week 9 GPP Targets (Main Slate)

Week 8 in NFL FantasyDraft wasn’t as profitable as the prior weeks, but it was profitable nonetheless. The unfortunate thing was locking in C.J. Uzomah at the tight end position who netted a whopping zero points. I’ll never understand how he wasn’t able to get a few catches in a 37-34 game, but I digress.

Before getting into the NFL FantasyDraft Week 9 GPP Targets, let’s quickly review the games with the highest totals listed on TeamRankings.com that many DFS players are going to be focusing on when building their lineups (and some thoughts on each game):

• Tampa Bay @ Carolina (55 point total)
  • A LOT of DFS players are going to be stacking this game… I’ll be avoiding it for the most part, as a pivot away from crazy-high ownership. Cam Newton is obviously a great play, but I don’t see Tampa Bay being able to score a lot on this Panthers’ defense. If the Panthers go up early, Cam’s ceiling may be limited, and that can quickly eliminate Cam owners in GPP’s.
  • I have no idea which type of Ryan Fitzpatrick we will see on Sunday. He has been incredible at times, and drop-dead awful in others. For those reasons, I am out.

• Kansas City @ Cleveland (52 point total)
  • Hard to write-off Patrick Mahomes as he’s averaging a ridiculous 30.5 FantasyDraft points per game, but Cleveland’s pass defense is no joke. Mahomes can definitely beat them, but this looks more like a Kareem Hunt game. Baker is worth a look for a GPP lineup or two.

• Detroit @ Minnesota (49 point total)
  • This looks like a game that is going to be overlooked. I love the Minnesota passing attack in this game and the Lions wide receivers. Marvin Jones and Kenny Golladay have incredibly high ceilings now that Golden Tate was traded to Philadelphia. This game is a great pivot for low-ownership, if you think the game script will favor fantasy production.

• Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans (58.5 point total)
  • By far the most intriguing matchup on the slate in terms of fantasy production. Everyone in this game is in play. It sounds like Cooper Kupp is going to play – maybe DFS players overlook him?

• Green Bay @ New England (56.5 point total)
  • Another incredible high-scoring matchup to close out the Sunday slate. Assuming the majority of the DFS community builds around the LAR/NO game, we can get some great plays in this game at relatively low-ownership.

Be sure to follow me on Twitter @sticks022 and @FantasyCPR for more fantasy football information. Thank you for reading and best of luck this week!

NFL FantasyDraft GPP Quarterbacks:

Aaron Rodgers ($13,500)

Rodgers definitely disappointed DFS players who played him last week, but I’m going right back to him for this prime-time matchup against Tom Brady and the Patriots. We all know who A-Rod is, and that is enough for me to always play him with confidence. The Packers also have a ~26 point implied-total, so Vegas doesn’t have much faith in New England’s defense.

Kirk Cousins ($11,700)

Kirk is my favorite GPP quarterback on the slate. The Vikings have a 27 point implied total and the Detroit Lions defense is nothing to fear. The Vikings running game is sub-par, and when reviewing the passing stats for the 2018 season on The Football Database, Cousins ranks second in passing attempts with 341 passes already on the season.

If you’re looking for fantasy points from your quarterback, you are looking for a lot of pass attempts. Kirk averages 42.6 pass attempts per game and is bound to throw 40+ again in this game at home against the Lions.

I have him projected for around 12-15% ownership, which is music to my ears. He is also very affordable which makes it easy to lock in a mini-stack of Cousins/Thielen in 70% of my GPP entries.

Drew Brees ($11,300)

Drew Brees’ price is insanely low for the type of upside he possesses when playing at home in the dome. There’s no way the Saints’ defense can slow down the Rams’ offense, so this should be a game where the Saints really need Brees to air it out (as opposed to a run-first offense they’ve typically been over the past two seasons).

Assuming most DFS players are discouraged with Brees’ pedestrian 22.8 FantasyDraft points per game, we may get a low-owned Brees at home… I like that.

Honorable Mention:

Tom Brady ($13,900)

DeShaun Watson ($11,900)

Jared Goff ($11,300)

Russell Wilson ($11,000)

Baker Mayfield ($10,500)

NFL FantasyDraft GPP Running Backs:

No need to talk in-depth about Todd Gurley ($18,500). I’m not quite sure why FantasyDraft didn’t raise his price some more, but what do I know? At least they didn’t lower his price like DraftKings did, but I’ll keep that rant to myself.

Gurley is always a great play, but I will not be locking him into 95% of my GPP’s like I have in weeks passed. I’ll still have 50-60% exposure to him, but there are so many elite wide receiver plays this week and solid running back pivots, that should allow you to somewhat fade Gurley.

Alvin Kamara ($15,000)

Kamara is going to heavily involved in this shootout against the Rams. For only $15k, I cannot avoid Kamara’s upside in a high scoring game, especially when most of his damage should be in the passing game. I got him projected for 110 all-purpose yards, 6+ catches, and a touchdown. Big week coming for Kamara!

Christian McCaffrey ($14,700)

He may be the chalkiest running back on the slate but Tampa’s defense is terrible. If you wish to play him, you’ll be happy with the results.

Kareem Hunt ($14,600)

Kareem Hunt was somewhat of a let-down last week against Denver. His price is still incredibly reasonable and he has an absolute smash-matchup against a brutal Cleveland run defense. Lock him in as a top-3 running back play for Week 9.

James White ($12,900)

James white is averaging over 8 receptions per game over the past 5 weeks. The Patriots have a ~31 point implied total, but the Packers’ defense has looked somewhat respectable lately. I’m anticipating Josh Gordon and Gronk to be the main focus of the Packers’ defense (and rightfully so). If that holds true, White is in for another huge PPR game.

At $12,900, he is my favorite running back play on the slate in terms of value.

Aaron Jones ($9,400)

Ty Montgomery is no longer a Green Bay Packer. That leaves the Packers’ backfield with just Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams. Aaron Jones continues to be an absolute monster when running the ball (6.2 yards per carry…wow), but McCarthy is set on getting Williams his share of snaps.

As of now, McCarthy is a fool. At $9,400 in a high-scoring game, I’m okay with Aaron Jones being your “salary saver” punt play in hopes he has a productive game regardless of how much Williams plays.

Honorable Mention:

James Conner ($13,600)

Adrian Peterson ($11,300)

Isaiah Crowell ($9,500)

Jordan Howard ($9,200)

Nick Chubb ($8,800)

Duke Johnson ($7,400)

NFL FantasyDraft GPP Wide Receivers:

There are simply too many great wide receiver plays this weekend. I’ll just list the ones I’m going to have exposure to with a little write-up for each. If I were to dive into all of their match-ups and what not, you’d be reading this until Monday morning and never have the chance to set a lineup.

• Adam Thielen ($16,700) – another game with 100+ receiving yards in Week 8. Expect more in Week 9. As I stated earlier, Kirk/Thielen is my favorite GPP mini-stack on the slate.
• DeAndre Hopkins ($15,600) – no more Will Fuller. This should be a huge week for D-Hop.
• Davante Adams ($15,500) – not sure what to expect from Adams this week (assuming Belichick puts a lot of effort into shutting him down). I’d still play him and expect 85+ yards and pray for a touchdown or two.
• Mike Evans ($15,300) – I hate the Bucs this week, but Fitzy loves throwing to Evans. He’s too big for this Panthers’ secondary. Expect 12+ targets and plenty of opportunity for a big fantasy performance.
• Julio Jones ($14,900) – no one on the Redskins can keep up with Julio Jones and he is going to be severely under-owned this week.
• Michael Thomas ($14,300) – hasn’t had a 20+ point fantasy outing since Week 3. This should be a “get-right” spot for Michael Thomas and the Saints’ passing game.
• Keenan Allen ($13,700) – LOVE Keenan Allen this week. I have him projected at ~5% ownership in a matchup where he should dominate. Justin Coleman is an okay slot corner, but Keenan is a top-5 slot receiver. Advantage Keenan.
• Juju Smith-Schuster ($13,000) – best matchup on the field for Pittsburgh wide receivers. A bit too pricey for my liking.
• Emmanuel Sanders ($12,000) – lock button on Emmanuel Sanders. Everybody and their mother is going to be on Courtland Sutton on Sunday. Are we forgetting about Emmanuel? I’ll be all aboard a low-ownership Sanders train.
• Julian Edelman ($11,900) – should get a ton of targets in a high scoring game.
• Cooper Kupp ($11,300) – excellent matchup and may be overlooked due to recent injury.
• DeVante Parker ($9,100) – Parker is finally back. He’s got plenty of upside to blowup at such a cheap price tag.

Honorable Mention:

Robert Woods ($13,300)

Jarvis Landry ($12,300)

Brandin Cooks ($11,900)

Josh Gordon ($10,900)

Devin Funchess ($10,600)

Kenny Golladay ($10,400)

D.J. Moore ($7,900)

Courtland Sutton ($7,700)

Curtis Samuel ($7,000)

NFL FantasyDraft GPP Tight Ends:

Travis Kelce ($12,300)

The dude is a machine. If you can afford him, he’s easily the #1 tight end play on the board.

Greg Olsen ($8,700)

Over the past three weeks since returning from his injury, Olsen has played a minimum of 96% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps. There is no reason to think Olsen isn’t 100% healthy. He is one of Cam’s favorite targets and is coming off of his best fantasy performance of the season.

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The Bucs’ are awful against the tight end – he’s my favorite play at the position in regards to value.

O.J Howard ($8,100)

If I had to roster any Buccaneer, it would be O.J. Howard. He has three double-digit fantasy performances in a row and is primed up for a fourth. Someone is going to have to do something on this offense besides Mike Evans.

Jimmy Graham ($7,500)

Jimmy had a brutal game against the Rams in Week 8. I’m not really sure why he wasn’t more involved in the game-plan, but we have to move on. The Patriots have really struggled against the tight end this season and most of them aren’t nearly the player Jimmy Graham is.

He should be a matchup nightmare for the Patriots. Lock him in for at least 4 catches, 65 yards, and a touchdown.

Honorable Mention:

Rob Gronkowski ($12,900)

Jordan Reed ($9,000)

Kyle Rudolph ($7,100)

Ben Watson ($6,300)

Hayden Hurst ($5,000)

NFL FantasyDraft GPP DST & Sample Lineup:

Not going to same much about the defensive plays as I usually just try to just fit in a solid defense with whatever salary I have left. Here are the teams I’d love to roster this week if I have the salary to do so:

• Chicago Bears ($7,300)
• Carolina Panthers ($6,300)
• Baltimore Ravens ($4,900)

NFL FantasyDraft GPP Sample Lineup:

QB: Kirk Cousins

RB: James White

RB: Kareem Hunt

WR: Adam Thielen

WR: Keenan Allen

TE: Jimmy Graham

FLEX: Aaron Jones

FLEX: Nick Chubb

DST: Denver Broncos

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