Tua Tagovailoa hasn’t taken a snap in the fourth quarter all year, but could that change when Alabama takes on LSU in Death Valley?
Alabama has been on a roll all year as Nick Saban’s team is putting up points at an unprecedented pace. The Crimson Tide average more than 54 points per game and it’s largely because of the right arm of sophomore quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. The 6-foot-1 220-pound field general is completing 70 percent of his passes for 2,066 yards and 25 touchdowns. He has yet to throw an interception and has yet to take a snap in the fourth quarter.
That could change when he sets foot in Death Valley to take on No. 3 LSU who boasts the nation’s No. 7 scoring defense in the nation, allowing 15.1 points per game. LSU will be able to provide a pass rush with defensive linemen, Breiden Fehoko and Rashard Lawrence, collapsing the pocket and allowing edge rushers to crash down on the quarterback.
If LSU is able to disrupt Tagovailoa’s timing and get him off his spot, it should result in smaller windows for him to drop the ball into. Tagovailoa’s accuracy is unmatched in the college game, but he’s also had large windows to fit the ball against the opposing defenses he’s faced thus far. LSU prides itself on being DBU and they’re led by All-American cornerback Greedy Williams who projects to be one of the first defensive backs drafted in the next NFL Draft.
All of this begs the question: Will Tagovailoa play in his first fourth quarter this year at LSU?
Alabama has been able to sit Tagovailoa for the fourth quarter because of the large first-half leads they’ve been able to build. Backup quarterback, and the starter for the last two years, Jalen Hurts, has finished things off while Tagovailoa chills on the sideline.
But Alabama hasn’t played a team the caliber of LSU yet. Building up a four-touchdown lead that would afford Saban the luxury of sitting Tagovailoa to protect him from injury could prove much tougher against LSU than it would against Tennessee or Ole Miss.
The big x-factor in this game is the first-half suspension of All-American middle linebacker Devin White who was ejected from the last game in the second half because of a targeting penalty. With White patrolling the middle of the defense, he could have narrowed the passing lanes and windows Tagovailoa will see and provide the run support needed to slow Damian Harris, Josh Jacobs and Najee Harris.
This opens up a big opportunity for Alabama to have a big first half that potentially puts LSU out of the game in the first 30 minutes. I think that’s the most likely outcome. The halftime adjustments LSU coach Ed Orgeron makes and the return of White for the third quarter will tell the story of this game. The home crowd could be taken out of the game in the first half with a Tagovailoa aerial assault, which renders the second half, not must-see TV. Alabama is a 14.5-point favorite, but they’ll need to double the spread to make sure Tagovailoa can rest comfortably for the fourth quarter.
A score in the neighborhood of 42-14 would make it a certainty that Tagovailoa sits the fourth quarter, but I think LSU can keep it close enough to at least make him take a few snaps in the final quarter. That said, I don’t expect LSU to pull off what would be the upset of the year and defeat this Alabama team.