College Football picks against the spread November 3, 2018

College Football picks against the spread November 3, 2018

It’s that time of week again! Time for a big college football Saturday with 52 games here. We had nine prior to Saturday, which means that we had 61 total games this week, the most so far this season. I really need to make up some ground here.

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This is my favorite time of the week. The time when I get to really dive into the spread for the most accurate readings. You know you really love something when you would do it even if no one read it. Back when I first started this on a previous site, I had maybe ten views per week. I still put just as much time and effort into it.

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! A poor week leaves me under .500 at 235-238. This is my worst mark on the season. I also lost 15 more betting points leaving me at -32 on the season, and -1 overall.

As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 10!

Louisville at (2)Clemson(-39.5)(2):

Wow, this is a ton of points. However, Clemson just handed Florida State their worst ever loss in Tallahassee. I know they are capable of covering this. I’ll go Clemson, but lower the bet just in case they let up.

Nebraska at (10)Ohio State(-18.5)(2):

This line has fallen three points, and I do get why. Ohio State’s defense has a ton of holes, and this Nebraska offense has looked really good lately. It didn’t hurt that Nebraska blasted a Minnesota team that gave Ohio State trouble the week before. However, the Buckeyes are dangerous after a bye week. I’m not putting much on this either way. Nebraska either earns a lot of respect here, or some of the fans start getting restless. The Buckeyes have destroyed Nebraska lately. If Frost gets revenge, or at least keeps it close, this job is his forever. I’ll take Nebraska.

(19)Syracuse(-5.5) at Wake Forest(4)

I’m not sure where this is coming from. I do know that the Wake defense has struggled a lot. The offense is getting better, but just how much better? The Orange have better players at every position except wide receiver. I do expect a lot of points in this one, but a lot more for Syracuse. Give me the Orange.

(20)Texas A&M at Auburn(-3.5)(3):

The Auburn offense is terrible, but A&M has had problems on the road and against solid defenses. Auburn has both of those advantages here. However, I’m not all that sure that Auburn can cover more than a three point spread anymore. That said, they did cover Ole Miss before the bye. A&M is a similar team to that, so I’ll go Auburn at home.

(24)Iowa State(-15.5) at Kansas(2):

Kansas is in the same position that Iowa State was in two years ago. The Jayhawks are doing a better job defending their house, and pulled off the upset of TCU last weekend. There is talent on this team, and they are starting to do some good things. Iowa State has cracked the upper half of the Big 12(10), and are only getting better. This has all the looks of a trap game. I don’t think Iowa State loses, but I think this stays within two touchdowns. I’ll take Kansas.

South Carolina at Mississippi(EVEN)(1):

No one knows what to do with this. Both teams have been favored this week, but never by more than 1.5. When in doubt, I usually go with the home team. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t. I trust the Ole Miss offense a little more, so Mississippi, I guess.

Rutgers at Wisconsin(-28.5)(2):

Hornibrook is back, which is bad news for Wisconsin. I’ll take Rutgers. They aren’t going to win, but I don’t know if Wisconsin could cover anyone by more than four touchdowns right now.

Michigan State(-2.5) at Maryland(2):

I don’t trust Michigan State much, but I do trust them more than with Lewerke at the helm full time. Give me Sparty. That defense is still very good.

Oklahoma State(-6.5) at Baylor(3):

There could be 100 combined points in this one, and it still wont be the highest scoring game in the conference. Baylor will keep up for a while, but Oklahoma State pulls away in the second half. Cowboys by a couple of touchdowns.

Air Force at Army(-6.5)(3):

This is always a hotly contested game, but Army has proven several times this year that they are easily the best of the service academies. Army by double digits.

Memphis(-11.5) at East Carolina(3):

I don’t think that ECU can really keep this close because they have had issues stopping the run all year. Give me Memphis.

Central Michigan at Eastern Michigan(-13.5)(1):

I do like this ECU team, and I know they are capable of covering this. However, the same rules apply here as in normal rivalries. I don’t trust it. I’m taking EMU, but I wouldn’t bet this game.

Georgia Tech(-5.5) at North Carolina(3):

I do find it hard to trust lines that are this nuts. It is as low at 4 in some places, and I’ve seen it as high as 7.5. At 7.5 I am significantly less confident in this, but the Tarheels can’t stop the run. I don’t care about Marshall’s status. Oliver is going to run this offense regardless. Give me the Bees.

Texas State at Georgia State(-6.5)(5):

Way too low. The Bobcats have been trash on the road, and slightly above horrible at home. Not that the Panthers are a lot better, but they are at home. The general rule is a free touchdown for home field, and there is no way these two are even on a neutral field. I’m taking Georgia State with ease.

San Jose State at Wyoming(-13.5)(2):

Yeah, I don’t buy this. Wyoming doesn’t have the offense to cover this. However, they may win by ten and still dominate. I’ll take the Spartans, but I doubt they win outright.

South Alabama at Arkansas State(-14.5)(1):

I don’t like the half, but the Jags have been terrible on the road. I think I have to go with Arkansas State here.

Georgia Southern(-7.5) at Louisiana-Monroe(2):

Well, if the Eagles can beat Appalachian as bad as they did, I have to think they can handle the Warhawks on the road by double digits. Give me GSU.

Marshall(-2.5) at Southern Mississippi(2):

This line is about right on since Marshall has looked like the better team. I have no problem giving them a touchdown though. Give me the Herd.

(6)Georgia(-9.5) at (9)Kentucky(2):

Kentucky is finally getting a little bit of respect here at home. It has everything to do with the defense. I do have questions as to what Kentucky is going to do when Snell gets little to nothing on the ground. Can the defense hold up then? Kentucky can’t pass to win, but I don’t really think they win anyway. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if they did, and I think this stays under double digits. Give me the Wildcats.

(13)West Virginia at (17)Texas(-1.5)(4):

Sorry boys, I don’t buy this. If Sam Ehlinger is at 100%, then maybe Texas wins outright. Maybe. I still doubt it. It’s not about the offense at this point. It’s about how the Oklahoma State offense did anything they wanted for much of this game. West Virginia’s defense is good enough to hang on as well. Mountaineers straight up.

(16)Iowa at Purdue(-2.5)(2):

I get this line, but the Boilers just lost to an awful Michigan State offense last week. Sparty’s defense is better than Iowa’s, but not by a large margin. I think I still have to go with Iowa here.

Florida State at (21)North Carolina State(-8.5)(5):

Two teams that got torched by Clemson have a chance to get some of their battered confidence back. FSU is completely out of that right now. NC State wins, probably by a lot.

Liberty at Massachusetts(-1.5)(1):

What’s more impressive: beating UConn on the road or Virginia Tech on the road? That’s what I thought. Give me the Flames.

UTEP at Rice(EVEN)(1):

Yuck! I’m so sick of being let down by Rice. Go UTEP!

Tulane at South Florida(-6.5)(2):

I’m going to say that USF rebounds here since Tulane is not a great road team. I’ll take the Bulls at home for less than a touchdown.

Navy at Cincinnati(-13.5)(2):

That Cincinnati defense is tough, but so is Navy’s. The Bearcats don’t have a ton of explosive players on offense here, so I’m going Navy.

Louisiana at Troy(-9.5)(3):

This looks low. Troy by a couple of touchdowns here.

Kansas State at TCU(-9.5)(4):

Too many. I know TCU is at home, but Pooka Williams ran on them last week. Alex Barnes will here, and the K-State defense is still pretty good since TCU can’t really get behind them without Turpin. Give me the Wildcats. I wouldn’t be shocked if they won outright.

Minnesota(-9.5) at Illinois(3):

I haven’t seen anything from Illinois in the recent past that says they can keep this close. Minnesota by at least two touchdowns.

(14)Penn State at (5)Michigan(-11.5)(3):

I’ll defer to Penn State playing well when they are interested. Well, they should be very interested here since the Big Ten(14) East crown is not out of reach. I think this stays within single digits, especially since the Michigan offense isn’t a high scoring unit to begin with. I’ll take Penn State, but they wont win outright.

(22)Boston College(-1.5) at Virginia Tech(3):

This looks backwards. The Eagles wont be able to run at will on the Tech defense, and I’m not sure the passing game is really good enough to exploit the weaknesses of the Hokie secondary. VT straight up.

Missouri at (11)Florida(-6.5)(4):

This looks low. The Missouri offense has struggled against good defenses all year. Franks could be primed for a huge one against the Missouri D. Florida by quite a bit.

(15)Utah(-7.5) at Arizona State(4):

This also looks low. Arizona State doesn’t have the defensive talent to neutralize all of the good offensive players that Utah has. Something has to give, and it’s going to be the Arizona State defense.

Charlotte at Tennessee(-22.5)(5):

Too many. Charlotte is playing well, and though Tennessee is hanging around in games, this offense is putrid. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Vols didn’t even score 23. Give me Charlotte. They may even win this outright!

Appalachian State(-14.5) at Coastal Carolina(2):

If Zac Thomas misses the game, there is no way the Mountaineers cover. If Thomas is in, I’ll take the Mounties with three confidence points.

Connecticut at Tulsa(-17.5)(2):

UConn lost outright at home to UMass last week. I don’t trust the Tulsa offense, but they have to be able to cover against this awful defense. Give me the Dust Devils.

Houston(-14.5) at SMU(2):

I really don’t like that half. SMU has played solid lately, but can anyone stop D’Eriq King? I doubt it. Give me Houston.

Duke at Miami(FL)(-9.5)(2):

This looks like too many. The Canes are not playing well right now, and I kind of think Duke wins this outright. Give me Duke.

(4)Notre Dame(-10.5) at Northwestern(3):

I think this is going to be a tough game for the Irish. I like this pick a lot more now with that free half point. Worst case scenario, I say the Irish win by ten or so. I honestly think it will be closer though, and Northwestern has a decent shot to win this outright at home.

Louisiana Tech at (18)Mississippi State(-23.5)(1):

Can Mississippi State cover this at home? The defense is good, but the offense, especially the run game, is a work in process Give me La Tech.

UCLA at Oregon(-10.5)(3):

Wow, Oregon looked bad last week. Really bad. However, UCLA’s defense has looked bad every week. The offense took a step back with DTR injured. Speight was decent last week, but decent wont keep this close. Give me the Ducks.

Florida Atlantic at Florida International(-2.5)(2):

These campuses are about a half hour apart. As you can expect, they really don’t like each other. The Owls have easily the best player in this game in Devin Singletary, so give me FAU.

UTSA at UAB(-22.5)(2):

I like UAB, but that’s a lot of points. Oh well, they haven’t really done me wrong yet. I’ll go with the Blazers again.

(7)Oklahoma(-13.5) at Texas Tech(3):

These games have been wild and crazy in recent years. Who can forget two years ago when Baker Mayfield and Patrick Mahomes not only broke the scoreboard in Lubbock, but also broke passing record after passing record. That isn’t going to happen here. Neither is Oklahoma covering. The most the Sooners win by here will be 10. Give me Tech.

(1)Alabama(-14.5) at (3)LSU(5):

This looks like free money. For us, anyway. It obviously isn’t or this line would plummet. It has held steady at this since opening with about 42% going LSU with little juice. Look, I’ll make this simple. LSU is not losing by more than two touchdowns at home to anyone. ANYONE. Give me the Tigers.

Stanford at Washington(-10.5)(5):

Way too many. Myles Gaskin is not a sure thing to play, and he hasn’t been all that good when he has. Stanford might even win this outright. Give me the Cardinal.

USC(-16.5) at Oregon State(3):

Corvallis has been USC’s own personal house of horrors for around 20 years now. This isn’t a great USC team, nor is it a great Oregon State team. However, I don’t think the Beavers are just going to lay down and take it at home. Give me Oregon State.

BYU at Boise State(-13.5)(2):

Zach WIlson has been pretty good starting for BYU, but the Cougar defense will be the story of this game. They have been strong lately, so I tend to think this is a little high. I’ll take BYU.

San Diego State(-10.5) at New Mexico(5):

Juwan Washington will be back for the Aztecs. That is really going to jump start this offense against one of the worst rush defenses in the world. SDSU wins big!

(23)Fresno State(-26.5) at UNLV(4):

Fresno just keeps covering and UNLV has been cover bait. This looks easy. Fresno rolls.

California at (8)Washington State(-9.5)(3):

The Cougars are more than capable of covering this, but Cal has played pretty well lately. They just might keep it close. I still doubt it though. Give me Wazzu.

Utah State(-19.5) at Hawaii(3):

The Rainbows have been covered by everyone in the last six weeks no matter where they play. This Utah State offense has been electric lately. I’ll take the Aggies.

We have the largest slate of the year with 61 FBS vs. FBS games. After two poor weeks in a row, I need a good one here. I went big with points, only having eight one point bets. I had 20 two pointers, 19 three pointers, eight four point bets, and another six five pointers. If I go 4-2 on those instead of 2-4, it can make the difference in the whole week!