Fantasy Football: The Buy Week

This is the second installment of The Buy Week. This week, I’ll be highlighting a player at each position that I’m buying moving forward based on their fantasy football performance over the past few weeks and the entire season.

Welcome back to Fantasy Football: The Buy Week. If you read last week’s edition, thanks for coming back. If you didn’t read the first installment from a couple of weeks ago, check it out here.

As I did last time, I am going to do my best to explain the reasoning behind it so that you can make your own decisions on who to target whether I write about them or not.

In fantasy football, when looking at opportunity versus efficiency, opportunity is king. As smart fantasy football players, we don’t ignore efficiency, we just prioritize opportunity higher. Opportunity is especially important when targeting running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.

Buy Dak Prescott

Dak Prescott has had a rough go of it this season. At times he has looked lost without a true stud wide receiver to lean on. Well, the Cowboys’ wide receiver room got a huge boost last week with the acquisition of Amari Cooper. While it generally takes players some time to pick up the playbook, just the threat of Cooper on the outside should open things up for Dak and the entire Cowboys’ offense. Cooper has actually had an extra week to study up given the Cowboys’ bye in week 8.

Dak also has one of the easiest remaining schedules for quarterbacks. With games against Tennessee, Philly, Atlanta, New Orleans, and Tampa Bay, Dak will look like a totally different quarterback in the second half.

More from Fantasy Football

• Top 10 fantasy football dynasty wide receivers heading into 2023
• Fantasy Football: How high should Alexander Mattison’s ADP rise after Dalvin Cook release?
• Top 10 fantasy football dynasty running backs heading into 2023
• Top 10 dynasty quarterbacks heading into 2023
• 5 players fantasy football owners should hope are traded this offseason

Buy Kerryon Johnson

Two weeks ago, Kerryon Johnson had his breakout performance. Last week, he was on the field for 81% of the Lions’ snaps. Theo Riddick did not play in either game, so we don’t exactly know how that backfield will work itself out when he’s back. Riddick has his role, even before his injury, there was no sign that it would expand. This means that Johnson’s real competition for opportunity has always been LeGarrette Blount. Over the last two weeks, while Riddick was out, Blount’s role has not changed. While Johnson’s role has increased. In Week 7 against the Dolphins, Johnson increased his high snap percentage for the year by 13% (up to 59%). The following week, he increased it yet again up to 81%, according to Pro Football Reference.

Another encouraging thing about Kerryon Johnson’s game is he’s being trusted with more work in the passing game. Last week he had 8 targets, and he looked really good catching the ball.

Not to mention, Kerryon Johnson has only scored 1 touchdown this season. If he can hold or increase his opportunity, there should be positive regression coming.

I expect the lost targets from the Golden Tate trade to affect the running backs more than any other position. Tate played primarily in the slot for the Lions and had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 6.5, which means many of his targets were in the middle of the field. Those targets are up for grabs and with sub-par tight ends, I expect the running back position to pick up a lot of the opportunity.

Buy John Brown

Take a look at John Brown and the Ravens’ schedule for the rest of the season. Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, etc., it is glorious. The Ravens should be able to put up some points against those defenses, they’ll have to if they want to win.

According to airyards.com, Brown has a target share of 17%, which, admittedly, is lower than we would like for a trade target. However, it’s still second on the team to Michael Crabtree, 20% target share. A stat that’s even more telling than target share, though, is air yards market share (the percentage of air yards that he is receiving on his targets). For Brown, this number is 36%, more than 10% higher than Crabtree’s 25%. Brown’s 18.4 aDOT tells us he has had and will continue to have week winning big play ability.

Buy George Kittle

George Kittle is turning into one of the league’s best tight ends before our eyes. When you look at 49ers’ box scores, you see consistent, stellar opportunity and efficiency. When you watch the games, you see that as well as superb run blocking ability. Kittle is an all-around tight end. While run blocking doesn’t directly convert to fantasy points, it does keep him on the field, and that leads to more opportunity. In weeks 6-8, Kittle was on the field for 93%, 90%, and 91%, according to Pro Football Reference. In theory, more snaps mean more routes run, which creates more opportunity to catch passes.

After his Thursday Night Football performance this week, it might be a week late to buy low on Kittle. But, if you have the means to still acquire him, do it.

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest Fantasy Football news and analysis!