NBA DFS Stack Attack for November 3 2018

Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in NBA DFS with the Stack Attack!

Last night was a big night in NBA DFS. No, there was not a record-setting performance, no there was not an unbelievable game-winner going viral. It was a monumental night in the NBA, in Orlando specifically, as the behemoth himself Boban Marjanovic drew the start.

The community jokes around a lot about Boban, but in all seriousness I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a more productive player on a fantasy point-per-minute basis. Is it his massive hands? Or maybe his dashing good looks? Maybe it’s his downright dominant style of play that rivals LeBron James? We will never know. But to recap last night, when Boban is in play, he should be in your lineup.

Unfortunately the Clippers do not have a game tonight, but there will be a heap of less exciting and noteworthy plays to build around. We have 7 games tonight around the association and some key spots to attack.

As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA DFS or Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.

With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.

Top Game Stack: Los Angeles Lakers @ Portland Trail Blazers (236.5 O/U)

Lakers Team Ranks:

Pace: 4th (108.1 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 9th (110.1 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 21st (111.0 points allowed per 100 possessions)

A team playing at the 4th highest pace in the NBA with the highest over/under on the slate always deserves our attention. Couple that with the fact that their coach is on the hot seat and their star player is losing patience and we could see a very aggressive Lakers’ squad tonight.

The Blazers are a middling defensive team, but LeBron James ($12.0k FD / $11.3k DK) is one of the few matchup-proof players in the league, for obvious reasons. He’s been doing everything in his power to will his team to a win lately, averaging 30.3 points, 9.3 rebounds, 7 assists and 2.5 steals per game over his last 4 and should slow down tonight. he’s a great spend on both sites, although I do think he’s better suited for DraftKings with James Harden sitting $500 less expensive than him on FanDuel.

The Lakers rotation has been tight over the last couple of games, with all 5 starters seeing over 30 minutes last game against Dallas. The most surprising part was the fact that JaVale McGee ($7.6k FD / $6.4k DK) saw 35 minutes. He’s averaged 1.27 fantasy points per minute, trailing only LeBron for the team lead. With his ability to rack up peripheral stats, his price tag is actually rather reasonable across both sites.

I expect the Blazers to assign Al-Farouq Aminu to LeBron James tonight given his defensive abilities, making Kyle Kuzma ($6.6k FD / $6.2k DK) a viable option at the PF position. He’s averaged a shade under a fantasy-point-per-minute (0.96) and the shot volume has been there, as he’s only attempted less than 13 shots once this season. Lonzo Ball ($6.1k FD / $5.2k) is dirt cheap compared to what we’re accustomed to paying, but the fluidity in playing time between him and Rajon Rondo ($5.6k FD / $5.3k DK) has me leaning Rondo if I were forced to make a choice. Both, however, are looking like fades this evening.

Blazers Team Ranks:

Pace: 15th (103.7 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 2nd (113.2 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 11th (105.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)

The Blazers’ side of the ball is the part of this game that is much more attractive, as the 2nd most efficient offense in the league is getting a massive pace bump and has an implied total approaching 120 (119.75).

This game script sets up beautifully for Damian Lillard ($9.7k FD / $9.9k DK) as he’s torched the Lakers over the last 3 seasons. He’s scored over 40 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 10 games against them and most recently has averaged 46.2 FanDuel points per game in his last 4 outings against the Lakers. He’s only seen 27 and 30 minutes in his last two games but this is a game in which I expect him to be around his normal 35-40 and his 1.39 fantasy-points-per-minute show that he could be a shoe-in for 5x value.

His wingman, CJ McCollum ($6.8k FD / $6.4k DK) feels way too cheap across the industry. People will be a bit afraid of the KCP defense, but Caldwell-Pope has struggled to crack 20 minutes per game this season and is no longer in the starting lineup, rendering that argument useless. While his usage rate isn’t as high as Lillard’s, a 26.5% usage rate at under $7k is a fantastic bargain.

With Mo Harkless remaining out, we should see Jake Layman draw another start while Evan Turner ($5.0k FD / $4.9k DK) should continue to see minutes in the mid-high 20s. He’s the type of player that racks up peripheral stats in up-tempo games, making this one of those games where he could be a great cash play as a SF2.

Jusuf Nurkic ($7.0k FD / $6.4k DK) is typically hard to trust, but he’s rocking a 26.7% usage rate this season and has really come around over his last two. In those games, he’s averaged 21 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2 assists in 26 minutes per game. The Lakers are the 3rd worst team in the NBA against centers, surrendering 64.02 FanDuel points per game, giving Nurk another chance to smash tonight.

Secondary Game Stack: New Orleans Pelicans @ San Antonio Spurs (229 O/U)

Pelicans Team Ranks:

Pace: 3rd (108.4 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 3rd (112.5 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 26th (112.6 points allowed per 10 possessions)

This game once again rides on whether or not Anthony Davis ($12.2k FD / $11.5k DK) plays, but with the O/U set at 229 I think it’s a fair assumption to say that he’ll suit up. If that is the case, he makes for one of the top studs on the slate, but not one that I would recommend targeting. This is not saying he’s a bad play, but the injury risk combined with the fact that both LeBron and Harden carry more attractive individual matchups put AD 3rd on the stud priority list.

Where the Pelicans get interesting is the backcourt. With Elfrid Payton already ruled out, we should see more starter minutes from Tim Frazier ($3.6k FD / $3.7k DK). He’s played 25 minutes per game over the last two with Payton out and while he’s only been able to turn that into 15.1 fantasy points per game, the opportunity has been there. Last game in particular (30 min vs POR), he was able to attempt 7 shots and also dish out 5 assists. He failed to record a steal or block which capped his upside, but with FD’s new scoring system he makes for a logical punt.

Jrue Holiday ($8.5k FD / $7.9k DK) has been phenomenal as of late (42.5 FDP per game over his last 3) but his usage will take a hit if Davis plays. He is also tasked with a tough matchup against Spurs’ DeMar DeRozan, making him a fade at this price point.

The weak spot of the Spurs’ lineup is the forward position, as they’ve allowed an average of 49 FDP per game to SFs. Nikola Mirotic ($8.3k FD / $8.2k DK) profiles more as a combo forward, but his 27.6% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute rate make him a very intriguing GPP play.

Spurs Team Ranks:

Pace: 27th (101.0 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 5th (111.4 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 17th (107.5 points allowed per 100 possessions)

The Spurs are receiving the largest pace bump on the slate, which means we could find a ton of value here, starting with LaMarcus Aldridge ($8.1k FD / $8.3k DK). This is the cheapest that we have seen him this season as he’s coming off of back-to-back mediocre games.

When you take into account the fact that he only saw 23 minutes last game and only shot 6-17 two games ago, you start to understand why he was rather underwhelming. The Pelicans allow an average of 46.24 FDP per game to the PF position and from a point-per-dollar standpoint, there may not be a better play on the slate than Aldridge.

DeMar DeRozan ($9.9k FD / $9.4k DK) has been stellar in his debut season with the Spurs, but this is not a price I recommend chasing against a perimeter defender like Holiday. I would much prefer to allocate that money towards someone like Damian Lillard in a smash spot.

Rudy Gay ($6.8k FD / $6.5k DK) has also been a surprisingly consistent source of production for the Spurs this season. He’s seen minutes anywhere from the mid-20s all the way up to 40 this season and has gone over 45 FanDuel points in two of his last three outings. He’s a safe cash play with a reasonably high ceiling.

There are a few value pieces in the Spurs offense that we could look to take advantage of as well in Bryn Forbes ($4.0k FD / $4.3k DK) and Marco Belinelli ($3.8k FD / $4.1k DK). Both have been rather consistent in their roles, as Forbes has only scored below 20 FanDuel points once this season. To clarify, he’s hit at least 5x value in 7 of their 8 games this season and has also seen at least 27 minutes in 7 of those 8.

Belinelli on the other hand has seen a surprising 24.3% usage rating and has averaged 11.8 shots per game over his last 4. He’s never going to contribute a ton peripherally, but add in a few boards and a steal or two and it’s not hard for him to hit value at near minimum-price.

NBA DFS Value Stacks

Utah Jazz

Pace: 21st (102.7 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 10th (109.6 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficency: 13th (106.4 points allowed per 100 possessions)

The Jazz burned a whole lot of bridges yesterday, as value plays Dante Exum ($3.8k FD / $4.0k DK) and Royce O’Neale ($3.5k FD / $3.6k DK) posted less than 15 fantasy points COMBINED.

A lot of this can be chalked up to the fact that they both got in early foul trouble with 3 fouls early in the 2nd quarter, but nonetheless it was a disappointing showing. If Donovan Mitchell remains out, however, you can go right back to the well knowing that Exum has a 24.4% usage rate at almost minimum price.

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Ricky Rubio ($6.2k FD / $5.8k DK) was the primary beneficiary of Mitchell’s absence, as he posted a 22-point and 11-assist double-double on 17 FGAs. With Rudy Gobert likely tied up with Nikola Jokic all game, we could see even more of the offensive responsibility fall upon the under-priced Rubio.

Another value play to watch if Mitchell sits is Jae Crowder ($5.2k FD / $5.1k DK). He’s scored 18 points in back to back games and has posted over 30 fantasy points in those outings. His minutes are secured in the mid-to-upper 20s and if Mitchell is out again, we could see that creep into the low-30s like last night.

Cleveland Cavaliers

Pace: 26th (101.4 possessions per game)

Offensive Efficiency: 15th (106.2 points per 100 possessions)

Defensive Efficiency: 30th (115.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)

At this points it’s really sad to see what happened to the Cavs. They lost LeBron in the offseason, fired their coach less than 10 games into the season and have now lost their only glimmer of offensive hope in Kevin Love for the next 6 weeks.

With Love out, they’ve been filling the void with Sam Dekker ($4.5k FD / $4.8k DK), who has recorded 8 steals over his last three games and also saw 34 minutes last game against the Nuggets. His price is getting to a point where I may be a bit uncomfortable, but his ability to contribute in peripheral categories and the fact that he’ll NEED to shoot the ball gives him value.

Without Kevin Love on the court, Jordan Clarkson ($4.7k FD / $4.5k DK) carries the highest usage rate (31%) and is one of only three Cavs to average over a fantasy point per minute (1.02). He’s been extremely scoring dependent this season (8 assists in 8 games), but does have the ability to put up 30 raw points which would be crushing value in itself.

Larry Nance Jr. ($6.3k FD / $5.4k DK) seems like he will be the biggest beneficiary of Love’s absence in the long run, as he’s averaging 1.25 fantasy points per minute with him off the court. The issue is that he’s seen less than 20 minutes in his last two games and has failed to crack 25 minutes in every game but one. He’s more of a GPP play given his price tonight, but if he sees 30 minutes, he should crush value.

Thank you all for reading the NBA DFS Stack Attack for the 11/3 Main Slate! If you have questions, fire away on Twitter (@JMetz34)! Good luck tonight!