NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Sunday November 4
Welcome to the Sunday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Saturday’s NBA DFS winning GPP scores for the second straight night were lower than we have become used to as the $25 Pick and Roll GPP winner put up 330 fantasy points – well below the 350+ plus we have been seeing. With the injury to Goran Dragic, much of the Heat value including Justise Winslow, Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson ended the night as some of the highest owned players on the night but it was Trae Young in the same game who led the entire slate with 56 fantasy points.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Watch the Injuries
Even though it is Sunday and most of the sports focus will be on the NFL, we still have a nice six game NBA slate that kicks off at 6PM EST (not the start time). However if you do want some NFL DFS and Fantasy Football coverage – don’t you worry, we have every format and DFS site covered for FREE here at Fantasy CPR as well.
Heading into this six game slate, there are a few key injuries we need to watch that could have a massive impact on this slate. The first is the status of Raptors forward Kawhi Leonard is officially questionable with an ankle injury but with the expectation he was due for a rest day with a back-to-back on Sunday/Monday anyways – I think it would seem like a safe bet he would miss tonight’s contest against the Lakers.
We already know the deal this year – when Kawhi is out, you fire up some Kyle Lowry ($15.4K) who sees over a 6% usage bump and is putting up 1.52 FP/M with Leonard off the court this season. Lowry has put up 43 and 55 fantasy points in the two previous games that Kawhi has sat out and with the largest pace boost of any team on the slate as they take on the Lakers – this seems like a lock and load Lowry spot tonight.
The Timberwolves are the other key spot to watch here as we already know that Jeff Teague is out while Derrick Rose (questionable) and General Soreness himself, Jimmy Butler, may also miss this game against Portland.
This team is a total mess right now with Jimmy Butler seemingly holding them hostage with this “I will let them know which game I will miss” nonsense but if they really are down all three players here tonight, there is going to be massive usage and value we simply cannot ignore.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($16.3K) has put up 46 and 64 fantasy points in the previous two games that Butler has missed and although the match-up with Portland is not ideal, there is simply no other spot for the usage to go on the Minnesota side. Over the last two seasons with Butler and Teague off the floor, KAT has a 28% usage rate while putting up 1.35 FP/M. In their last meeting with Portland last season, Butler sat out, and KAT went for 70 fantasy points on the back of 34 points and 17 rebounds.
Tyus Jones ($9.7K) was everyone’s villain just two games ago when he late scratched but returned against Golden State to play 40 minutes and drop 33 fantasy points in a game where Teague was out and Rose was limited to only 5 minutes.
With these two key games starting 3+ hours after lock, we may not have all the news we need prior to lock but I think there is enough upside to roll the dice regardless of news with Lowry, KAT and Tyus Jones on this slate.
NBA DFS – Attack the weak spots!
Scrolling through Twitter over the weekend, I came across a Tweet from Candace Buckner of the Washington Post who shared a graphic that the Washington Wizards have given up 123.9 PPG this season which is the most an NBA team has given up in the first 8 games of an NBA season since 1991.
Scroll through the positional Defensive Efficiency rankings for the Wizards thus far and you will see they rank 28th in total team Def-Eff and 24th or lower at the PG, SF, PF and C positions. Whether you use something as simple as points allowed or some of the advanced statistics in the NBA, it all points to one conclusion – this Wizards team is one we need to attack in NBA DFS.
Today the Wizards will take on the New York Knicks who see the second largest pace boost of any team on the slate and with a new starting line-up that has seen the Knicks win two of their last three games, this a spot chock full of value we can build around.
What really stands out is the minutes with this new starting line-up- it looks like Coach Fizdale has really trimmed down his rotations and is leaning heavily on his starting guys – playing four of his starters 30+ minutes in their last meeting with Dallas.
Over the last three games, Tim Hardaway Jr. ($13.5K) has led the team with a massive 33% usage rate while putting up 1.13 FP/M and has launched 11 or more 3PA in three of his last four games.
Frank Ntilkina ($8.1K) has played 31-32 minutes in each of his last three games, averaging over 24 fantasy points per game which puts him right at 3x value at this price point. Any time I can find a player who with an average game would hit value and then you put them in a pace up spot against a bad defensive team – it gives you the chance to lock in the floor game while shooting for his ceiling.
Damyean Dotson ($9.2K) and Mitchell Robinson ($8K) are the secondary plays here with Robinson coming off a huge 13 point, 10 rebound and 4 steal/block game against Dallas where he dropped 40 fantasy points and now he gets to face Dwight Howard who a week ago could barely jump. I am loading up on the Knicks today.
Last but not least – Joel Embiid ($21.5K) – is by FAR the highest priced player on the slate – over $2K more expensive than LeBron James but my friends, this is a Centers versus Brooklyn match-up. Embiid has gone for 41/13 and 39/17 in his last two games and now gets to take on a Nets team that is giving up the most fantasy points to opposing Centers – oh buddy.
The price is high, but this is where the Knicks value correlates well as you can use a few pieces from New York to offset the large investment in Embiid as a player who could easily break the slate.
NBA DFS – Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
The sample line-up below is NOT an optimized Plug and Play line-up and is simply meant to be an illustrative example based off the logic laid out in this article.
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G: Kyle Lowry ($15.4K)
G: Tyus Jones ($9.7K)
G: Tim Hardaway Jr. ($13.5K)
F/C: Joel Embiid ($21.5K)
F/C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($16.3K)
F/C: Mitchell Robinson ($8K)
UTIL: Frank Ntilkina ($8.1K)
UTIL:Isaiah Canaan ($7.5K)
Slate Overview: At first glance this looks like a solid Stars/Scrubs slate with the value we have in New York and the potential value/usage boosts in Minnesota that allow us to lock in Joel Embiid as a cornerstone piece against the Nets. With so many focused on NFL today, there is always an edge if you are willing to watch the NBA news and react so keep an eye on the injury news today in the later games and help build your teams off that news!
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