Fantasy Basketball Picks – Strategy and Player Pool for November 5th

Fantasy Basketball Picks: LOS ANGELES, CA – OCTOBER 19: Boban Marjanovic #51 of the Los Angeles Clippers shoots a basket as he is fouled by Jerami Grant #9 of the Oklahoma City Thunder during the second half of a basketball game at Staples Center on October 19, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Picks – Strategy and Player Pool for November 5th. Welcome to what will be a DFS Basketball player pool for GPP mass multi entry strategy on both Draftkings and FanDuel.

This fantasy basketball picks pool is designed to replace the mindset of using a core of players and then filling in with best fits and value. When selecting a pool of players for an NBA slate, the goal is to limit your pool to about 15% of the players available.

This lower pool gives a higher variance while a larger pool field with yield a lower variance. When determining my pool, I utilize many tools including my projection model as a guide in determining implied value to salary. I also look at minutes and typically only keep players expected to see 28 or more minutes.

There are some exceptions such as Boban Marjanovic, who when starting, will see minutes in the low 20’s but whose output is near the 1.5 fantasy point per minute mark and is typically of low salary. These plays will be highlighted daily on the punt plays page.

Contest selection is key as well. For example, you have better odds of putting 150 entries into a tournament with a field of 20,000 entries versus a contest that may have a higher prize pool but only allows 20 max entries in a field of 40,000.

I also recommend setting your player pool exposure by selecting 5 to 6 players with an exposure of 60%, your mid level plays at 30 to 50%, value plays at 15 to 25%, and your punts to around 5 to 10%.

Using the csv edit option on both sites is the easiest way to enter in all your lineups once you have generated and here are links on how to do this – Fanduel CSV Draftkings CSV. The player pool on the following pages will be broken down into tiers – Elite (salary above 9k), Mid-tier (7-9k salary), Value/Pivots (5-7k salary), Punts (salary below 5k), and while based on Draftkings pricing, this is the same pool that will be used on Fanduel.

Be sure to follow me on twitter @dfsenchilada for injury updates, Q&A, and final thoughts before lock. And now on to our pool…

Fantasy Basketball Picks: CHICAGO, IL – OCTOBER 29: Stephen Curry #30 of the Golden State Warriors drives to the basket past Wendell Carter Jr. #34 of the Chicago Bulls at the United Center on October 29, 2018 in Chicago, Illinois. The Warriors defeated the Bulls 149-124. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and/or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Picks: Elite Plays

Getting right into it, we have 8 players priced at 9k or more and we need to determine who will make our pool. We know that on any night if Anthony Davis, Steph Curry, and Russell Westbrook are playing they are an automatic into our pool.

These guys are virtually match-up proof and will consistently provide you in the 50 to 60 fantasy point range. I do recommend that their exposure is limited to the 25 percent range if you are doing over 50 lines unless you are dead set on 1 in which case bump the usage up to around 60.

The only other play I like in this price tier is Blake Griffin. He has a 30.7 usage rate which is highest on the team and also leads the team in points per game at 28.6. He is averaging 51 fantasy points per game this season and at a salary of 9800 with a ceiling of 60 plus points, we can expect him to hit 6x value or more.

The Heat give up the right around 20 points and 12 boards a game, setting up Blake for a fairly productive day. At a price of almost 11k, we can fade James Harden until he can prove to be productive coming off of a hamstring injury.

Nikola Jokic is priced only 400 less than Griffin but is also averaging a full 10 fantasy points less so in this case with a lot of good basketball players we will fade. Kevin Durant gets a bit tricky here.

The Grizzlies are on a back end of a b2b with the Warriors coming off fresh from a weekend of no ball. They are 14 point favorites in a game that should be a blowout. We need only one elite level play here and tonight it is Steph.

Fantasy Basketball Picks: TORONTO, ON – OCTOBER 17: The shoes worn by Kyle Lowry #7 of the Toronto Raptors during the second half of an NBA game against the Cleveland Cavaliers at Scotiabank Arena on October 17, 2018 in Toronto, Canada. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Vaughn Ridley/Getty Images) /

Fantasy Basketball Picks: Mid-Tier Plays

This is where we make it or break it tonight folks. Most folks will see the current over under of near 240 and attack the Pelicans/Thunder match-up with all of the star power. The Pelicans are holding the SF position to only 38 fantasy points a game to the tune of 18 points and 7 boards.

Paul George, averaging 22 and 10 is looking at a down-tick in production and with a salary of almost 9k, we need to fade and look to other options with a safer floor. Jrue Holiday is the only other play in this game for me.

He has been on tear since handling the point while Elfrid Peyton is out averaging over 40 fantasy points a game. The Thunder are allowing 45 fantasy points a game to opposing point guards which bodes well for Holiday. Another play i love here is Rudy Gobert.

The Raptors allow 20 points and 16 boards a game to centers culminating to an average of 54 fantasy points a game. Gobert leads the team with a total rebound percentage of 22% (percentage of available rebounds grabbed while on the court) and is averaging about 42 fantasy points a game.

He has a low floor and high ceiling tonight and will be a low owned gem to roster. The rest of the plays in this tier are as follows:

Fantasy Basketball Picks: Value/Pivots

If Wendell Carter Jr. continues to remain under-priced (6100 on DK) then he continues to be a must play. The kid is averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute and has put up solid numbers against the likes of the Warriors, Rockets, and Nuggets.

He faces a Knicks team allowing 20 points and 14 rebounds per game to opposing centers and in his last five games he is shooting almost 50% from the field averaging almost 16 points and 10 boards. If he can see 30 plus minutes tonight, he may be the steal of the day.

This is a loaded tier tonight and we are going to attack this with targeting plays with an expected lower ownership. There really isn’t any chalk to eat here so from here we will play:

Fantasy Basketball Picks: Punts

This tier is pretty simple and straight forward. PLAY Boban Marjanovic if Marcin Gortat sits. This guy is a fantasy point per minute monster who at only 4500 on DK can get you near 30 fantasy points in only 20 to 25 minutes of court time.

If he starts, plan on using him at 100 percent exposure. Another play I love in this range Allonzo Trier for the Knicks. He has seen around 24 minutes of action the past 3 games off the bench scoring over 20 fantasy points each time. He still sits on a salary of 4200 and needs only 25 points to reach a 6x value.

The Bulls can be somewhat forgiving to point guards and in a potential shootout game, it makes sense to roster him this evening. We will round out this tier with:

Next. NBA FanDuel DFS Targets Nov 5. dark

Remember to follow me on Twitter @dfsenchilada for new and injury updates, final thoughts, and projection updates. Have fun and good luck!!