Sentimentality would suggest the Yankees should re-sign CC Sabathia over J.A. Happ. Production on the field suggest a much different course of action.
The Yankees have a proud tradition of trying to allow their stars to finish their distinguished careers in pinstripes. CC Sabathia would like that tradition to lead Brian Cashman to make him a nice offer in free agency. Unfortunately for Sabathia, New York’s interest in another veteran southpaw might push him to another team.
The identity of the potential usurper, of course, is J.A. Happ. He is only a little over two years younger than Sabathia, but it’s obvious he is taking much better care of his body. That’s allowed Happ to continue to pitch at a high level at the age of 36. He went 17-6 in his 31 starts last season with a solid ERA of 3.65. That’s put him in position to receive several lucrative, multi-year contract offers in free agency.
At first glance, Sabathia’s numbers don’t look all that different. He went 9-7 for the Yankees in 2018 with an identical 3.65 ERA. Despite his knee issues he only started two fewer games than Happ. That allowed him to finish the season just 24. innings pitched behind Happ on the season.
The problem with bringing Sabathia back is that you can’t reasonably expect him to reproduce his 2018 campaign in 2019. He started last season off very well, but the wheels were coming off his season down the stretch. That just wasn’t the case for Happ. That’s the reason Aaron Boone went with Happ in Game 1 of the Division Series while Sabathia didn’t get close to a start against the Red Sox.
Happ may not pitch quite as well in 2019, but there are more reasons for optimism in his case. He’s never been overly reliant on velocity. The former Blue Jay hasn’t needed to recreate himself like Sabathia has. Happ doesn’t know what it’s like to throw in the high-90s. He’s always relied on top-notch command to get guys out. That isn’t a skill that’s likely to decline sharply due to age.
In fairness, Sabathia won’t be looking for the same contract that Happ will. He’d likely be thrilled to return to the Bronx on a one-year deal with a salary of somewhere around $8 million. That offer won’t be enough dollars or years to secure Happ for the foreseeable future. Cashman should expect to hand Happ a three-year deal that will pay him somewhere around $15 million per season.
The difference in years and dollars shouldn’t be enough to shift this debate Sabathia’s way. The right move for the Yankees will be to bring Happ back and continue to work hard to elevate the quality of their starting rotation in subsequent transactions. That’s the only way Cashman and company can really shift the balance of power in the AL East this winter.