NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stack Attack: 11/5/18
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball with the Stack Attack!
Happy Monday NBA DFSers! We’ve got a healthy 9-game NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball slate to compensate for yesterday’s quiet day and ahead of Tuesday’s small 4-game slate, so we want to make sure to take advantage of it.
The slate is headlined by the NBA TV matchup between the Pelicans and Thunder (top game stack?!) as we’ll see two high-octane and electric offenses square off. There are also some rather low-key matchups that could be ripe with fantasy value while lacking real-life appeal (Bulls vs Knicks, Magic vs Cavs).
As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
Primary Game Stack: New Orleans Pelicans @ Oklahoma City Thunder (238 O/U)
Pelicans Team Ranks:
Pace: T5th (107.6 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 8th (110.6 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 25th (111.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Pelicans are quickly becoming regulars in the Stack Attack articles and for good reason. They rank top-10 in both pace and offensive efficiency on the season and have more than a handful of fantasy-relevant players with a wide range of salaries. This makes it easy to get exposure in some way.
Per usual, the team stack starts with Anthony Davis ($11.8k FD / $11.3k DK) who is currently listed as probable for the tilt against the Thunder. This price actually seems low for AD and my assumption is because he’s failed to top 20 points in 3 straight games. Last game was also his first of the season with less than 10 rebounds. While he made up for it with 7 combined steals and blocks, this was in large part his worst game of the season. This is a prime bounce-back spot for Davis, as he’s completely smashed the Thunder in his career. Since 2016, he’s averaged 30.4 points, 9.6 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 1.4 steals per game against OKC. If choosing between the two studs tonight, my vote would go to Davis.
Surrounding Davis is a fantastic supporting cast of Jrue Holiday ($8.6k FD / $8.3k DK) and Nikola Mirotic ($8.4k FD / $8.1k DK). The latter (Mirotic) has been playing out of his mind this season, averaging over 40 fantasy points per game. With a likely matchup with Paul George, this may be the game to hop off of the wagon.
Holiday is typically a player I recommend more in games that Davis sits, but the fact that I expect Alvin Gentry to put him on Westbrook is boosting his stock tonight even with Davis expected to play. Westbrook exerts a ton of energy on offensive, often times causing his defensive game to lag. He also averages almost 4 turnovers per game, giving Holiday a bump in the steals category which is extremely valuable (especially on FanDuel).
With Elfrid Payton missing the last handful of games, we’ve seen a mixture of Tim Frazier ($3.5k FD / $3.6k DK), Frank Jackson ($3.7k FD / $3.3k DK) and Ian Clark ($3.5k FD / $3.1k DK). None of the three scream “value punt!” as Frazier and Jackson COMBINED to see 7 minutes last game. If there was a gun to my head and I had to choose one, Ian Clark would get the nod. He’s seen 20.5 minutes per game over his last 2 games and should see similar playing time behind Holiday tonight.
Thunder Team Ranks:
Pace: 4th (107.7 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 23rd (104.0 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 7th (102.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)
Similar to the Pelicans’ side of the ball, a strong case can be made for stacking the Thunder tonight, especially given the fact that the Pelicans rank 5th in pace but 25th in defensive efficiency.
If you are not looking to roster Anthony Davis tonight, my guess is that you’ll be keying in on Russell Westbrook ($12.0k FD / $11.1k DK). He’s been his usual self this season, averaging roughly 53 fantasy points per game. He was able to notch a 23-point, 12-assist double-double in only 26 minutes last game. The fact that this game carries a 4.5-point spread could lead Westbrook to see 35+ minutes tonight, only raising his stock. You can’t go wrong with either of the studs, but the slight discounts on each site have me recommending Davis on FanDuel and Westbrook on DraftKings.
My favorite play from the Thunder happens to be Westbrook’s wingman, Paul George ($9.6k FD / $9.2k DK). He’s somehow rocking a usage rate above 30% (30.6%) WITH Russell Westbrook active and also averaging 1.27 fantasy points per minute. Should this game stay competitive, he should be able to absolutely destroy Nikola Mirotic for all four quarters.
I tend to avoid recommending opposing centers against Anthony Davis given how great he is defensively, so I have zero interest in Steven Adams ($7.2k FD / $6.8k DK). While he’s been stellar this season (35+ fantasy points in 5 of 7 games), the matchup is something I would completely avoid.
The salary relief on the Thunder can be found in backup PG Dennis Schroder ($5.5k FD / $5.5k DK). He’s posted 30+ fantasy points in consecutive outings and has consistently seen minutes in the upper-20s to low-30s. He’s their key source of offense off the bench and should see a lot of run alongside Westbrook and the starters at the shooting guard position. He’s a fantastic value on all sites.
Secondary Game Stack: Memphis Grizzlies @ Golden State Warriors (220 O/U)
Grizzlies Team Ranks:
Pace: 30th (99.1 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 19th (104.8 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 4th (101.5 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Grizzlies are never a fun team to roster and they looked awful last night on the first night of their back-to-back, but could be a great source of value tonight. While they come in as the 14-point underdog, their stars Mike Conley ($8.0k FD / $7.8k DK) and Marc Gasol ($8.6k FD / $7.9k DK) come in rather under-priced for their ceilings.
Conley saw limited playing time last night due to foul trouble (27 min) and struggled to find his shot, going 3-16 from the field. The lack of minutes last night could serve as a major plus in the second leg of a back-to-back and the 3-16 showing his not indicative of his season as a whole up to the point. The major pace bump makes him a very intriguing point-per-dollar play on FanDuel as a low-owned cash play.
In Gasol’s last 5 games against the Warriors, he’s averaged 24.4 points, 8 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.4 steals per game in roughly 35 minutes per game. With a lack of a dominant center, we could see Gasol feast on the boards in this matchup. The only concern with Conley and Gasol is the obvious risk of a blowout that would limit their minutes.
Piggy backing off of the under-priced stars on Memphis, Shelvin Mack ($4.5k FD / $4.2k DK) has seen 29, 33 and 28 minutes respectively over his last three games. He’s increased his scoring output in all three (14-19-21) and has recorded 15 assists and 5 steals across the contests. Regardless of the outcome of this game, he should see ample run and he provides a bit of safety in the case that Memphis is blown out.
Garrett Temple ($4.5k FD / $4.7 DK) has also been a cheap source of minutes, seeing 35 per game over his last three. His scoring output has been erratic (anywhere from 8 to 20), but he provides a safe floor at a reasonable price in cash games and should also see blowout run.
Warriors Team Ranks:
Pace: 12th (105.0 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 1st (118.8 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 10th (104.8 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Warriors are a rather boring stack to write up because it’s the usual suspects game in and game out.
Steph Curry ($10.7k FD / $10.3k DK) has been playing out of his mind lately, averaging roughly 50 fantasy points per game this season and proving himself to be rather blowout-proof. This was shown in their game against the Bulls in which Curry only saw 24 minutes of action but still posted 23 points, 8 rebounds, 5 assists and 2 steals for 45.1 FanDuel points. He’s as safe as they come at the PG position, I just don’t see the need to spend up for him with other studs looming around that range.
Similar to Curry, Kevin Durant ($10.7k FD / $10.1k DK) has been dominating this season, leading the entire NBA in points per game and posting a 31% usage rate on the season. Durant is not priced appropriately for the ceiling he provides, but the blowout potential ranks him 3rd on my list of studs behind Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook.
Draymond Green ($8.3k FD / $7.4k DK) remains too cheap across the industry and comes in as my favorite target on the Warriors. The pace-down game won’t affect a player like Green as much as the scorers as he does most of his damage via peripheral stats. We could see a lot of Green on Gasol assuming the Warriors go small, giving him ample opportunities to hit the glass, an area in which he’s been thriving this year (7.5 per game).
Perhaps the best dollar-for-dollar play on the Warriors, however, is Andre Iguodala ($3.8k FD / $3.7k DK). He’s been seeing less than 20 minutes per game but has been making the most of those opportunities. Over the last two games, he’s averaged over 22 fantasy points per game (5.8x at this salary) and has been running a ton of backup PG behind Curry. Should this game get out of hand, we could see 20+ minutes from Iggy tonight at a dirt-cheap price. Should he bust, you can always drop his score on FanDuel with nothing to lose.
Top NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Value Stacks
Boston Celtics
Pace: 21st (102.6 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 27th (102.2 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 1st (96.5 points allowed per 100 possessions)
I never thought I’d be writing up the Celtics as a value stack, but I guess the abundance of depth has that effect on a team when they’re forced to spread the wealth.
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Kyrie Irving ($7.7k FD / $7.7k DK) comes in as a fantastic value play from a point-per-dollar standpoint. He’s rediscovered his stroke, topping 28 points in 2 of his last 3 games and posting a team-high 26.4% usage rate. The Nuggets have done a good job of containing PGs (6th best in league in DvP), but Irving is cheap enough where he could pay off his salary in one half of action if he gets hot.
Following Irving, the two other Celtics who I love for their prices are Jaylen Brown ($4.9k FD / $4.8k DK) and Marcus Morris ($5.4k FD / $5.8k DK). Brown has been a shell of himself this season, but has seen over 30 minutes in each of his last two games and has posted at least 24 FDP in his last 3 (first time over 20 this season). Morris on the other hand has been uber-consistent to start the season. he’s seen 30+ minutes in 2 of his last 3 games and has scored at least 15 points in his last 4. He’ll chip in a handful of rebounds and the occasional block and steal, making him a very safe cash play.
Utah Jazz
Pace: 22nd (102.2 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 13th (107.8 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 13th (106.0 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The absence of Donovan Mitchell will expectedly open up a heap of value, starting with Ricky Rubio ($6.3k FD / $6.0k DK). He holds a team-high 27.3% usage rate with Mitchell off the court and produces over a fantasy point per minute (1.02). He’s posted at least 30 fantasy points in consecutive games and should see that continue in a competitive matchup with the Raptors.
Another player flying under the radar for his price is SF Jae Crowder ($5.4k FD / $5.3k DK). After his 37.5 FDP outing last game, he’s seen at least 31 minutes in 3 of his last 4 games while posting at least 15 points and 5 rebounds in every one. He added 3 blocks and a steal last game, demonstrating his ability in the peripheral categories. His matchup with Kawhi Leonard may cap his scoring upside but could lead to more peripheral stats given his involvement on the defensive end.
Royce O’Neale ($3.5k FD / $3.5k DK) continues to be my kyrptonite, as he flops every time I recommend him, but 20+ minutes per game at minimum price provide for a fine punt. He could be a guy that pops off for 20 points on a given night if he sees the playing time, but he could also be the score you end up dropping, it’s a risk you’d be willing to take if you roster him.
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