Following a Saturday of few surprises, Week Two of the College Football Playoff rankings displayed an SEC bias among other notable items.
Sandwiched between a college basketball doubleheader featuring four top 10 teams and on a night when the nation was dialed into results from historic mid-term elections, Week Two of the College Football Playoff rankings made barely a blip.
The committee’s Top 25 figured to garner little attention because not a lot changed. Last Saturday’s results produced minimal churn with the most-significant outcome Alabama’s 29-0 sandblasting of previous No. 3 LSU in Baton Rouge.
The most compelling aspect was created by the Tigers’ lopsided loss.
And here’s the top five takeaways from Week Two’s College Football Playoff rankings.
The new top four
Alabama and Clemson – which dismantled hapless Louisville, 77-16, Saturday – remained firmly cemented in the top two spots. Notre Dame, the third undefeated Power Five team, survived a challenge on the road at Northwestern and moved up to No. 3. Michigan, whose only loss was at Notre Dame in the season opener, moved in at No. 4.
Those four teams now are in control of their destinies.
Georgia will face Alabama in the SEC championship game on Dec. 1 could play its way in with a victory over the Crimson Tide. Oklahoma moved up to No. 6. The Sooners lost to the Bulldogs in last year’s CFP semifinals and to return to the final four they’ll likely need a loss by Notre Dame or Michigan.
After losing by four touchdowns, LSU (7-2) dropped from No. 3 to No. 7 and is ranked ahead of three one-loss teams – Washington State, West Virginia (which moved up from No. 13 in Week One after winning at Texas) and Ohio State.
S-E-C, S-E-C, S-E-C
As the CFP committee enters the room to deliberate, the members who are former coaches or ADs ceremoniously remove caps of their schools. That doesn’t remove the thinking that they lean heavily toward the SEC.
There are seven SEC teams in the top 25 and six are in the top 16. Of course, last season the SEC placed two teams (Alabama and Georgia) in the final four and those two met in an all-SEC championship game.
With the Tide and the Bulldogs having clinched division titles and set to meet in the SEC Championship game, the speculation is already ramping up that Alabama could again finish in the top four even if it loses to Georgia in Atlanta.
Considering how much the committee values the SEC, that speculation could become reality. But only if the seemingly unbeatable Tide gets beat.
Questioning the methodology
The Bowl Championship Series rankings were an ever-evolving mash-up of computer rankings and human polls. The CFP is using a committee similar to what the NCAA Tournament employs. The 13-member panel employs computerized data and the highly subjective “eye test.”
Joel Klatt, the top college football analyst on FOX, is not a fan of how the committee does its job.
https://twitter.com/CFBONFOX/status/1058074213527867392/video/1
Using ESPN’s Football Power Index and Jeff Sagarin’s computer-genetrated rankings, here are some discrepancies with how the CFP committee ranked some of the top teams.
The FPI has Georgia ranked No. 3 and Sagarin has OU ranked No. 4. Neither formula values Notre Dame. The FPI has the Irish at No. 8 and Sagarin has them at No. 12. Ohio State is No. 6 in both FPI and Sagarin, three spots above where the committee lists the Buckeyes.
Of course, those who think computers know nothing about football can point to the fact the FPI has Penn State No. 7 and Sagarin ranks the Nittany Lions No. 8. In the CFP rankings, Penn State (5-3) is No. 20. Washington State also doesn’t compute. The Cougars are No. 8 in the CFP but FPI has them No. 25 and Sagarin ranks them No. 22.
Two … and then everyone else
We’re in the “p” word era of college football – playoffs (four teams, such as it is). But it’s also apparent that the other “p” word – parity – is much in play.
The CFP committee doesn’t release any point totals for its rankings, but the media and the coaches’ polls indicate the disparity between the two top teams and everybody else. Alabama is unanimous in the Associated Press rankings while in the coaches’ rankings the Tide received all but a single No. 1 vote – Clemson received the other one.
Those who fill out weekly ballots are bemoaning the choices after listing a top 10. The “throw a blanket” over about 30 teams is evident in the AP top 25. There are seven three-loss teams in the Week 10 AP poll. Over the last six years, there was a total of eight three-loss team in the rankings in Week 10.
The CFP rankings include nine teams with three losses.
Good night, Knights
UCF is 8-0 and extended its winning streak to 21 teams. The Knights, though, struggled with Temple, which set a school record for total offense. The good news is that UCF held steady at No. 12 in the rankings.
The bad news is that two teams that lost – two SEC teams that suffered home-field losses and didn’t look the part of highly ranked teams – stayed ranked ahead of the Knights with two losses.
LSU (7-2) dropped from No. 3 to No. 7. That equals the highest ranking of a two-loss team in Week of the CFP rankings; Wisconsin was No. 7 in 2016 with a 7-2 record. And Kentucky dropped just two spots, from ninth to No. 11, despite losing by 17 points to Georgia.
Even with two losses, Power Five schools will have the edge over an undefeated Group of Five team.