Welcome into the inaugural edition of the Fantasy NBA Game by Game Breakdown! We’re diving into the four game slate to highlight some great plays for the Tuesday night slate!
I have always tried to be totally honest with any reader so I’ll continue that when I say this is a first for me. I’ve never written for Fantasy NBA before but I’m quickly falling in love with DFS basketball. There’s something about watching your score pinball up like no other DFS sport.
This breakdown article will be roughly about 2-3 times a week for now as I continue to write NFL content(that hopefully you’re enjoying). As with any other breakdown I’ve ever done, I’ll be relying heavily on stats to back up anything that I’m talking about.
The big difference is that since Fantasy NBA is my newest sport, I really don’t have any preconceived notions or biases about the players like I might have in NFL or MLB. The goal is to highlight one player and then talk about the others a little quicker.
Here’s what I do know – I love watching the Warriors(bring the hate, I don’t care), I LOVE Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Boban Marjanovic is a boss. Let’s get into who looks like a great play tonight!
Fantasy NBA – Hawks at Hornets
Hawks Breakdown
FPPM Leaders – Trae Young, Taurean Prince, Kent Bazemore
This is going to be an interesting matchup. So far, the Hawks are playing at the highest pace in the NBA. The Hornets are down at 22nd so they have contrasting styles. Atlanta hasn’t translated that to points yet as they sit just 12th in points in the league. The Hornets are also 12th in defensive rating.
The last time we saw rookie Trae Young, he was great with a 20 point, 15 assist performance. He’s also currently seventh in touches per game so the opportunity is constantly there for him. One spot where Young might really have his way is driving to the paint.
He currently sits inside the top 15 in drives per game and 52 percent of Young’s points so far have come on drives. In addition, Young is fifth in assist percentage so kickouts off a drive are well in play here.
Charlotte does sit in the bottom 10 of points surrendered to small forwards so this could be a spot for Taurean Prince. He’s second in FPPM(fantasy points per minute) among starters behind Young at 1.04 but is also only playing 28 minutes per game. Kent Bazemore has been wildly inconsistent so far this year so you know what you’re getting into with him.
The Hawks and Hornets are back to back at 16th and 17th in rebounds so there likely isn’t a big advantage to use Alex Len or Dewayne Dedmon from that perspective. The Hornets are also giving up the fourth fewest field goals in the paint so even on a four game slate, I’m likely to head elsewhere for a center.
Players to Consider – Trae Young, Taurean Prince, Kent Bazemore
Hornets Breakdown
FFPM Leaders – Kemba Walker, Tony Parker, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
You can’t talk about the Hornets without talking about Kemba Walker. He’s been fantastic so far, averaging 1.40 FFPM and ranking third in usage in the NBA. With Atlanta allowing the fourth most points per game and playing fast combining with the Hornets in the top 10 in scoring, Walker is going to be a prime option for this evening.
The one spot Walker might really take advantage of is 3 point land. He’s attempting the second most three’s per game behind only Steph Curry of the Warriors at 10.4 a game while shooting 39.4 percent. It just so happens that Atlanta has faced the ninth most three’s in the NBA at 35.9 percent and is giving up the third most DK points to point guards.
Tony Parker is seeing a ton of usage with his new team at 27.3 percent, good for 1.09 FPPM. The issue is Parker is only seeing roughly 18 minutes per game so he has to be wildly efficient any given night to be a fantasy asset.
Nicholas Batum is seemingly always at a reasonable price but his usage and FPPM are way down at 15.1 percent and 0.83. At 34 minutes a game, he’s typically worth a solid 26-30 points since he contributes across the board. The only two positions that Atlanta is solid against is small forward and center.
This is likely a good spot for Batum since he can stuff the stat sheet. I would mostly stick to the guards here unless you wanted to try Marvin Williams or possibly one of the bench players.
Players to Consider – Kemba Walker, Nicholas Batum, Jeremy Lamb, Marvin Williams
Fantasy NBA – Wizards at Mavericks
Wizards Breakdown
FPPM Leaders – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Dwight Howard
Both of these teams are in the top half of the league in pace and in the bottom seven in points allowed so this one should be a fun one. This matchup has me looking at two players in Bradley Beal and Dwight Howard. Beal’s up first with an identical usage to Wall, only 0.05 FPPM fewer than his more well known teammate and we’re going beyond the arc once again.
Dallas is allowing the highest shooting percentage in basketball on shots 25 feet away from the hoop and Beal is seventh in three pointers attempted so far this year. He’s only shooting under 38 percent but I’ll take the field goal attempts against this team. The price point is fair as well when compared to Wall.
Howard recently made his season debut and what’s interesting is he’s been excellent in a small sample for FPPM. He averages 2.0 blocks per game through his career and faces off against a Dallas team that is fourth in drives per game and is first in percentage of field goals in the paint.
Howard will need to counter the size of DeAndre Jordan and has some serious block upside to go with his hearty 1.24 FPPM. Since he missed the start of the season, the price hasn’t fully adjusted yet either. Lastly, Howard has dominated Jordan in 22 career meetings, averaging 19.3 points and 13.1 rebounds to go with 1.8 blocks per game.
We can look towards Kelly Oubre since the Mavs have been blasted by small forwards, giving up the fourth most points to the position. Oubre sees about 28 minutes per game and sees a nice 22.6 usage percentage and 0.88 FPPM. Otto Porter also missed the last game so that’s something to monitor through the day.
Players to Consider – Bradley Beal, Dwight Howard, John Wall, Kelly Oubre, Markieff Morris
Mavericks Breakdown
FPPM Leaders – DeAndre Jordan, Luka Doncic, Dennis Smith Jr.
The usage is really spread out for the Mavs as five players are between 23-29 percent. DeAndre Jordan has the lowest usage despite having the highest FPPM but that’s explained by him averaging a double-double.
It could be partly because Howard has been out for the Wizards but they are dead last in rebounds a game. That really sets up well for Jordan on paper, though Howard has consistently gotten the better of him through their careers. With Washington giving up the most points per game, plenty of options for Dallas are on the table.
Washington lets up the third most fast break points to go along with Dallas at fifth. Washington has also been getting smacked by small forwards and point guards so Luka Doncic and Dennis Smith pop out.
Smith especially draws a plum matchup since the Wizards have given up the most DK points to opposing point guards and he’s ninth in touches per game. Doncic is leading the team in minutes and has a 20 percent assist ratio.
With the way the Wizards are bleeding points, the ceiling is high for Doncic tonight. Harrison Barnes is back in the lineup as well and at 32 minutes per game and his 24.9 percent usage, the 0.76 FPPM is bound to come up in a hurry.
Players to Consider – DeAndre Jordan, Luka Doncic, Harrison Barnes, Dennis Smith, J.J. Berea as a punt
Fantasy NBA – Nets at Suns
Nets Breakdown
FPPM Leaders – Caris LeVert, D’Angelo Russell, Jarrett Allen
You would think the Nets and the Suns would be ready for a fireworks display for fantasy tonight and that may well happen. However, the pace numbers should be noted because both these squads are in the bottom 12 in the NBA.
The flip side is both teams are in the top 12 in points surrendered so we still could see a lot of goodness. Phoenix is giving up the third highest effective field goal percentage so we want to look at Jarrett Allen as a potential stud from the Nets.
The Suns are giving up the most points to centers partly due to giving up the highest field goal percentage on shots less than 5 feet from the hoop. Allen sports a 1.04 FPPM rating with a 61.3 field goal percentage and almost eight boards a game.
Phoenix is picking up the second least rebounds a game so while Deandre Ayton is an exciting rookie, it’s still a prime weakness for the Suns.
It’s hard to not want some action on the guards as well. Caris LeVert has seen jumps across the board in points, rebounds, minutes, you name it. The Suns have been decent agains shooting guards but point guards are a different story.
They give up the seventh most DK points and the combo of LeVert and D’Angelo Russell could be in for a big game here. Russell has seen a dip in usage but still carries a mark of 26.5 and an assist ratio of 28.6 percent.
Russell is also basically tied with LeVert for the FPPM lead on the team. The only slight hesitation is the minutes for Russell, as they are under 28 a game but this matchup could bring out the best in him. Spencer Dinwiddie is an interesting cheaper option as well. He sees 27 minutes per game and matches a 24.1 percent usage with a 0.92 FPPM mark.
Players to Consider – Jarrett Allen, D’Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert, Spencer Dinwiddie, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Suns Breakdown
FPPM Leaders – Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, T.J. Warren
If you rostered Devin Booker his last time out, you might be hesitant to go back to the well. He wasn’t great and the matchup might not jump out. However, Brooklyn is giving up almost 113 points per contest and Booker is 11th in touches per game this year.
He’s become more of a distributor this season, raising his assist percentage from 23.3 percent last year to 33.9 percent in the early going. T.J. Warren has moved to the bench for the Suns but also missed last game. He’s considered questionable as of this writing and in 130 minutes played without Warren, Booker’s usage and FPPM spike to 38.2 percent and 1.31.
Booker’s assist percentage is good for 12th in the association and he could wind up feeding Deandre Ayton some easy buckets tonight. Ayton has a glorious matchup in his own right, as the Nets are giving up the third most fantasy points to centers.
Ayton has been seeing a ton of court time at about 32 minutes per game. The young stud is already 10th in rebounding percentage and only seven teams collect fewer boards than the Nets. The battle of the big men is going to be fascinating tonight.
Players to Consider – Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, Trevor Ariza as a cheap option bu nothing jumps at you
Fantasy NBA – Bucks at Blazers
Bucks Breakdown
FPPM Leaders – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe
We’ve arrived at literally my favorite player in basketball and The Great Freak is the definitive stud on this slate. He leads the NBA in usage and has been excellent this season, raising his assist rate, rebounding rate and maintaining his efficiency.
With a player like this, you don’t have to sweat the matchup very often and Portland is around mid-pack in points allowed. The only thing we might be a little concerned about is Al-Farouq Aminu on the other side. He is a very good defender but it’s not anything Antetokounmpo can’t overcome.
The Bucks run through three players fantasy-wise when they’re healthy but I’m not sure I’m using Eric Bledsoe or Khris Middleton in this spot. Middleton is a sharpshooter who attempts the 12th most three’s in the NBA but the Blazers are holding opponents to the third worst field goal percentage beyond the arc.
Bledsoe is fine but I can’t see anything that is a big reason to use him, especially with some of the other guards already on the slate. No other main rotational player has a usage over about 20 percent or a FPPM over 0.98 and that’s Ersan Ilyasova.
Players to Consider – Giannis Antetokounmpo, you can consider Khris Middleton or Eric Bledsoe but unless something changes today I likely won’t
Blazers Breakdown
FPPM Leaders – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, C.J. McCollum
Using most of the Blazers might be a harder sell this evening. The Bucks as a team are one of the better defensive squads in the NBA, allowing the fifth fewest points per game and carrying the second best defensive rating behind only the Celtics.
That’s very impressive considering they play at the fifth fastest pace in the league. The worst spot by position is center, which makes Jusuf Nurkic somewhat intriguing. Milwaukee and Portland are two of the top three rebounding teams in the league so Nurkic might not have a giant ceiling but does have an 18 percent rebound rate.
He’s averaging a double-double and the Bucks are giving up the 11th most fantasy points to centers. I just wish he was playing more than 25 minutes a game because his 1.32 FPPM is fantastic.
Damian Lillard has actually seen his minutes dialed back just a little bit but is still right around 33 a game and has a very nice usage rate and FPPM. That is the one other weakness for the Bucks is against the point guard position.
Whether it’s just happenstance or a trend, Lillard is only averaging 21 points against the Bucks, well below his career normal.
C.J. McCollum really cleans up when Lillard isn’t on the floor alongside of him, as he’s totaled a 1.38 FPPM mark but he’s only seen about nine minutes in that split. For whatever reason, Portland is running those two together almost exclusively so McCollum is tough to trust tonight.
Players to Consider – Jusuf Nurkic, Damian Lillard, Al-Farouq Aminu, C.J. McCollum
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