How six bubble teams will factor in the tightening NFL playoff race

We look at six bubble playoff teams after Week 9 and examine their chances at slipping into a playoff spot.

As the NFL playoff race materializes, a select few teams can be classified as “on the bubble” after Week 9. This group is somewhere between 5-4 and 3-4-1 and sitting outside of the current top six in each conference.

Division races are still to be decided, and there are some teams that could butt in at some point.

But these six could decide the nature of the wild card races over the last eight weeks of the season. Here’s what we know about each, and what their Week 9 result tells us about their potency:

Miami Dolphins

Miami’s 13-6 win over the Jets was one of the uglier games in the NFL this season. No one managed an offensive touchdown, and Sam Darnold’s four interceptions decided the duel of stagnant offenses.

Brock Osweiler has been Brock Osweiler — not quite horrible, but not enough to win you games without help. Overall, he’s been fine: Through four starts, he’s managed 7.3 yards gained per pass attempt, close to his 2015 glory days with the Broncos, and he’s only thrown three interceptions compared to six touchdowns. His QB rating of 91.1 is the best of his career.

Ryan Tannehill will return at some point in the next couple of weeks. If Miami can go 2-2 in their next four games (against Green Bay, Indianapolis, Buffalo and New England), they could put themselves in position to steal a playoff spot.

Baltimore Ravens

NFL teams go as far as their quarterback takes them. Old and decrepit Joe Flacco is not taking the Ravens very far.

In a 23-16 loss in a crucial game at home against the Steelers, Flacco went 23-of-37 for 206 yards with no TDs and no INTs, a statline that effectively sums up what he is at this point — a risk-averse, low-ceiling QB with little playmaking ability. He has rated as one of the league’s worst on deep passes and has gradually declined from a couple of quality early-season performances.

Baltimore’s defense carries it — prior to the Steelers loss, the Ravens were sixth-best in DVOA, per Football Outsiders. Three straight losses to three good offenses heighten the pressure on Flacco and John Harbaugh to grab one last playoff berth before the Lamar Jackson era presumably begins.

Philadelphia Eagles

Last week’s 24-18 win over the Jaguars in London landed the Eagles a 4-4 record heading into their bye week. Plenty has gone wrong for Philly this season, even after Carson Wentz returned. They ran into the Bucs at the height of Fitzmagic in Week 2, they lost to the Titans with five seconds left in overtime, and they notoriously blew a 17-0 fourth quarter lead to the Panthers on Oct. 21.

Next week’s Sunday night encounter at home against Dallas is pivotal — the one thing keeping the Eagles afloat is the weak NFC East, and a loss to the (currently) 3-4 Cowboys would throw the division into peril. With the Redskins falling flat against Atlanta and losing three offensive starters for the year, the division could be Philly’s to lose.

Seattle Seahawks

Surprisingly enough, Seattle is 4-4 — its offensive line has somewhat stabilized in recent weeks, and the defense is second in the NFL in DVOA, behind only the Bears.

Russell Wilson, newsflash, is still a stud. He’s completing passes at a 66.1 percent clip (which somehow is only barely above average) and has thrown 18 touchdowns to five interceptions. His QB rating is 108.6. It’s helped that running back Chris Carson is competent — Carson is gaining 4.5 yards per carry and is close to a 1,000-yard pace.

They have no shot at winning the NFC West. But the division is much easier than was anticipated at the start of the season; the Jimmy G-less 49ers are 2-7 and the Cardinals’ Josh Rosen is among the heap of struggling rookie quarterbacks. Three tough games loom (Rams, Packers, Panthers) followed by a more manageable schedule down the stretch, aside from a Week 16 battle with the Chiefs. A playoff spot is squarely in the realm of possibilities.

Green Bay Packers

A couple of tough losses will make things difficult for Aaron Rodgers and friends. They could be 4-3-1 if not for Ty Montgomery’s fumble on a late kickoff against the Rams, and a 31-23 loss to division rival Detroit in Week 5 came despite a ridiculous Rodgers performance — 32/-of-52, 442 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions. No matter that they were down 24-0 at halftime.

Green Bay are average on defense — though they are 25th in DVOA allowed to opposing number one wideouts — and have provided Rodgers with at least some healthy skill players. Running back Aaron Jones has emerged as Montgomery fell out favor and eventually was traded. Davante Adams has played well despite a lack of a number two receiver.

They’ll need more from tight end Jimmy Graham and veteran receiver Randall Cobb, who has been targeted just 38 times in the five games he’s appeared in. Overcoming the Bears and Vikings in the NFC North, with the Lions hoping to play spoiler in the midst of their efforts to avoid murdering Matthew Stafford, is a test for Green Bay.

If they miss the playoffs, it should be the last straw for Mike McCarthy.

Next: Best NFL player from each state

Atlanta Falcons

The NFC South is likely the toughest division in the NFL. The Saints are 7-1 and just ended the Rams’ 16-0 bid. Carolina is a quiet 6-2 and have adjusted nicely to the arrival of offensive coordinator Norv Turner. Tampa is still 3-5 despite multiple games of Jameis Winston and arguably the league’s worst defense.

Atlanta is 4-4. The Falcons started poorly and lost a couple of shootouts to New Orleans (43-37 in overtime) and Cincinnati (37-36 on a last-second A.J. Green touchdown) and then won three straight against the Bucs, Giants and Redskins. The latter was a 38-14 slapping of the NFC East leaders. Matt Ryan is starring, and the offense seems to have come fully together.

Julio Jones has been great regardless of his touchdown numbers. Calvin Ridley and Mohamed Sanu are legit options alongside him, and have benefited greatly from the attention drawn by Julio. The injury to Devonta Freeman hasn’t impacted the running back core too much, as Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith dominated Washington.

The defense is bad. Four of their remaining games are against bad offenses, though, and if they can win at least two of games against the Saints, Ravens, Packers and Panthers, they will safely make the playoffs. Once they get there, the offense could win a shootout against anyone.