FanDuel NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball GPP Breakdown: Wednesday, November 7

Welcome back to the Wednesday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown. I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love FanDuel NBA DFS more than Joel Embiid loves to troll his opponents (gotta love the Process!)

All kidding aside, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

We finally have a BIG slate tonight, with 10 games on this lovely post-election day Wednesday.  I’ll continue to go position by position instead of game-by-game, especially on these larger slates.  You really have to narrow your player pool, you can’t play everyone. I try to give 2-3 options at each position and some cheaper “value” options to consider as well. Finally, I always include my “Game Stack of Night” which is my favorite game to target with multiple players from both teams.

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. no major injury news we are waiting on for today, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be some surprises during the day with players resting.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: GPP Roster Construction

Roster construction on FanDuel has been tricky at times since they’ve made a major change this year with dropping your lowest score.  Punting one or two roster spots with near minimum priced players has appeared to be a very viable strategy, as it simply allows you to roster more 7k+ players with higher ceilings.  My best FanDuel NBA lineups have been made using this strategy and I guarantee if you start looking at winning GPP lineups in the tournaments you’re entering you’ll see others are doing it, too.

"If you’re not taking some chances with cheap players, you’re doing it wrong."

Even with only 8 spots counting on FD, we are seeing winning GPP lineups that are topping 350 FD points with regularity, which means we’re looking for an average of 40-50 points from those 8 players in our lineups.  You simply cannot get a floor game from any of those 8 spots that count if you want to be in contention to take down a tourney. Taking chances with cheap players in order to pay up for the studs you really want just makes a lot of sense.

"The key to winning a GPP on any given night is finding players who hit their ceilings.  5x or even 6x value is not enough."

We want 7x or better from players in order to take down GPP contests.  My favorite stat to look at is fantasy points-per-minute.  If you’ve been reading this column for a while you might notice I mention it quite often. I’m usually looking for players who can get at least one FPPM because that means they have the potential to score well beyond their average if they get more minutes than usual, have a really hot shooting night, or rack up a bunch of defensive stats.  Let’s take a look at each position to see who can get us there tonight.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Point Guards

Kyle Lowry (8800)

Lowry has been on fire to start the season with nine straight games now with double-digit assists and upping his scoring average this year to over 17 points per game. He’s had some big games lately with Kawhi Leonard sitting out and Leonard’s status is unknown for tonight’s game.

I plan to have some Lowry exposure regardless of Kawhi’s status because he’s been really good even with Leonard in the lineup (17-4-10 this year).  Toronto has been so good this year and hopefully, the Kings can hang with them long enough for the Raptors starters to rack up some big stat lines tonight.

Derrick Rose (5500)

Jeff Teague is already out and Tyus Jones simply can’t score so the T-Wolves have no choice but to give Derrick Rose heavy minutes and let him try to carry the offense. If Jimmy Butler ends up sitting then Rose will become really chalky.  Rose put up an 11-7-7 line in 29 minutes last week against L.A. in a game in which Butler and Teague both played.  I think he’s primed for a big night whether he starts or comes off the bench tonight.

Value: Shelvin Mack (5200)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Shooting Guards

Zach Lavine (9000) and Jrue Holiday (8800)

These two guards face each other in a game with a nice 230 total tonight. Neither team is playing much defense and despite the Bulls being 10 point underdogs, this is a game I want some exposure to.

Lavine has a whopping 33.8% usage rate this season and is attempting nearly 20 shots and over 8 free throw attempts per game. He scored 41 real-life points in double-overtime against the Knicks on Monday and his price hike is likely to keep his ownership down as I don’t think many will want to pay such a hefty price tag for him.

Holiday looks like he’ll like be the point guard again tonight with Elfrid Payton looking doubtful again.  He’s been simply outstanding in that role, averaging 22-4-10 in the five games that Payton has missed and he has the potential to have another big night tonight.

Dennis Schroeder (6400)

Welcome back, chalk Schroder! With Westbrook already ruled out, the young German guard should end up as a very popular pick since he’s massively underpriced for his role as the starting point guard for the Thunder tonight. This is a situation where I’m happy to eat the chalk and try to be different in a different way tonight, I think Schroder goes 6x on this price against the hapless Cavs. If you can see a pattern here, I love using players who basically are point guards in my shooting guard spots.

Value: Alonzo Trier (4200), Antonio Blakeney (3800)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Small Forwards

Nikola Mirotic (8400)

Miro continues to produce, even with Anthony Davis back in the lineup for the Pelicans. He’s got 7 double-doubles this season and has produced over 40 FD points a game this year. I’m looking to fade Anthony Davis, who hasn’t looked right in his two games since returning from injury, and pivot my New Orleans exposure to Holiday and Mirotic in a game that the Pelicans could score 120+ tonight.

Justise Winslow (5700)

The price hasn’t gone up fast enough on Winslow, who now has two really solid games since entering the starting lineup for the Heat. I love Winslow’s upside as he contributes in nearly every category even though he doesn’t score a lot.  Hassan Whiteside could miss tonight’s game again, which would mean more rebounds available for Winslow.  He’s averaged 35 minutes a game over the last two games and I think Miami will need his energy and defense out there tonight to compete with the Spurs.

Value: Harrison Barnes (5100), Mario Hezonja (4200)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Power Forwards

Blake Griffin (9600)

It continues to be the “Blake Show” in Detroit this season as Griffin has been downright dominant in all but one game this year (a 15.7 FD point outing against Boston).  You can’t ignore his massive floor and ceiling right now and his price is technically still too low considering he has four 50+ FD point games including that epic 77.8 performance against the Sixers earlier this season.

Blake’s 30% usage rate is very appealing and Orlando is a matchup that he can exploit as we love to target big men against their weak interior defense. Blake had a near triple-double in his only game as a member of the Pistons against Orlando last year. I think we have to continue to consider him on every slate until he’s priced over 10k.

Wendell Carter Jr. (7400)

I’ve been playing Carter Jr. over on Draftkings because of the major discount on him over there, but tonight I think he might be worth all 7400 bucks and deserves consideration for your Fanduel lineup. He’s been terrific since entering the starting lineup for the Bulls and his athleticism and rebounding is much needed by Chicago on the interior.

He’s had his minutes limited several times by foul trouble, but when he’s on the floor he’s been putting up a solid 1.2 FPPM. Centers are a position I like to use against the Pelicans and there should be plenty of rebounds and easy scoring chances inside for him tonight.

Value: Derrick Favors (5100)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Centers

Joel Embiid (11300)

He’s the most expensive center on the board, but I can’t help but want some Embiid exposure tonight against Indiana. I like using centers against the Pacers and I think Embiid could do work against Myles Turner on the inside. Embiid averaged 26.5-11-3.5 with 3 steals/blocks in his last two games vs. Indiana last year and he’s at an elite 1.6 FD points-per-minute on the season. I love paying up at center tonight and I think Embiid may get overlooked with all the solid options.

Karl-Anthony Towns (9400)

KAT has been tough to figure out this season. He looked lost for the first six games of the season before breaking out for two massive 60+ games last week. One of those games was a 25-16-6-1-4 line against the Lakers, who KAT faces again tonight. His usage is trending up lately with 25% in his last 5 games and with Jeff Teague out and Jimmy Butler being questionable pretty much every night, we could see Minnesota feed Towns tonight in a game that should have no shortage of offense.

Value: Jakob Poeltl (3500, Gasol is out)

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Game Stack of the Night

Chicago (+10) @ New Orleans (230 total)

I normally wouldn’t target a game with this big of a spread for a game stack, but I think the Pelicans defense has been so bad that Chicago can score with them tonight and keep it close long enough for all players involved to pay off their salaries.

The primary targets here are Zach Lavine, Wendell Carter Jr. and Antonio Blakeney (cheap punt, heating up off the bench) while I’m going to focus my New Orleans exposure on Jrue Holiday, Nikola Mirotic and possibly even Julius Randle (who’s somewhat underpriced at 6300 considering his 6th man role and 27% usage rate.)

Notice I am not playing Anthony Davis. I really think he’s nursing an injury and not looking to score on offense as a result. He’s simply not worth 11800 of salary cap to me until we see him put up a vintage AD performance and show he’s fully healthy. Also, don’t play Jabari Parker, he sucks.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Slate Overview

With so many options tonight, there’s plenty of different ways to build rosters and I see a lot of potential value at just about every position. One spot I really want to pay up if I can is at Shooting Guard and possibly Center.  I love locking in a high priced stud in those positions and I feel like people too often try to punt these spots instead of getting leverage on the field by trying to pay up for the player who scores the most raw points at the position.

Remember the sample lineup is intended to give you a starting point for roster construction and is not intended to be a “plug and play” lineup.  Here’s where I am as of 5:00 AM this morning.

PG: Shelvin Mack (5200)

PG: Derrick Rose (5500)

SG: Dennis Schroder (6400)

SG: Jrue Holiday (8800)

SF: Justise Winslow (5700)

SF: Mario Hezonja (4200)

PF: Blake Griffin (9600)

PF: Wendell Carter Jr. (7400)

C: Julius Randle (6300)

There you have it, peeps! I hope you enjoyed my comprehensive slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter