Lessons from the first legs of the MLS conference semifinals

What we learned in all four first legs of the MLS conference semifinals and what it means for the second.

The first leg has been played in each of MLS’s four conference semifinal matches. Here’s what we learned and how it will apply to leg two:

Real Salt Lake vs. Sporting KC

— SKC managed a 1-1 draw in Utah in the first leg. It was a slow game and Sporting didn’t look like the clinical, slick possession team they’ve been for much of this season — they managed just 33 percent possession after finishing second in the league in the stat. They were more conservative than usual playing on the road at altitude, but they have to get back to dominating the run of play at home.

— Damir Kreilach has been great for RSL. I have never been on board with putting Kreilach, a central midfielder, up front as a false 9, but my opinion is changing — the Croatian has been magnificent, and RSL’s run of golazos is due in large part to him. Things are going well at the moment for Damir.

He’s not a high-volume possession guy or distributor, but Kreilach occupies good areas and plays smart in the attacking third. He gives wingers Jefferson Savarino and Joao Plata the freedom to roam. In some ways, it’s a Wayne Rooney-type stabilizing influence. That’s important for a young team.

— Albert Rusnak, RSL’s number 10, will be suspended on yellow card accumulation. Regardless of MLS’s draconian accumulation rules in the playoffs, that absence could kill an RSL team facing an away goals deficit. Rusnak scored Real’s goal in the first leg. Replacing him will be difficult, particularly because they have to score at least once to advance.

Pressure rests on Savarino, Plata and Sebastian Saucedo.

— Real have been dreadful on the road all season. Going to Kansas City facing a deficit is not a favorable situation for them. Their result at LAFC in the knockout round gives hope that RSL could surprise people again.

Seattle Sounders vs. Portland Timbers

— Seattle managed a 2-1 loss in Portland, a fine result considering they can head back home with an away goal in tow. A 1-0 win sends the Sounders through. The problem: Two crucial starters left with injuries that could leave them out on Thursday. Center-back Chad Marshall has been ruled out with a meniscus injury, and midfielder Cristian Roldan (who played nearly every possible minute in the regular season) is questionable. Seattle need others to step up.

— Replacing Roldan could be difficult. Brian Schmetzer has been playing him as an outside midfielder, tasked with connecting lines, tracking back on defense and supporting Nicolas Lodeiro in possession. If he remains out, it changes the Sounders’ entire gameplan. Any replacement — Waylon Francis, Harry Shipp, Handwalla Bwana, even Alex Roldan — will do more true winger things. Roldan was basically a number eight playing in wider positions.

Shipp is closest to that style, but he isn’t as smart as Roldan at managing space and controlling games with his passing. Bwana likely fits better as a speedy super-sub, given his lack of ability in possession. Francis was good off the bench for Roldan in the first leg, but Schmetzer should be more aggressive than playing a career full-back at the position.

— Roman Torres is the obvious Marshall replacement. He has plenty of playoff experience (he scored the winning penalty in the 2016 MLS Cup final), but he’s largely fallen out of favor this season and has clearly lost a step at this stage of his career.

— The Ozzie Alonso-Gustav Svensson midfield pairing has to improve to help shield Torres. Diego Valeri dominated them on Sunday:

Torres will not be able to handle Valeri and Jeremy Ebobisse as well as Marshall could.

— Ebobisse is key for the risk-averse Timbers. Portland play narrow and try to strike on counter-attacks, though they did improve with the ball in the first leg. Ebobisse already has a goal in this series and has improved as a clever channel-runner, developing promising chemistry with Valeri.

The young forward helps make up for the anonymity of winger Andy Polo, who was nowhere to be seen in the first leg. Polo is positioned too deep in the Timbers’ Christmas Tree formation, as Taylor Twellman pointed out on the ESPN broadcast.

— The smart money is on Seattle, given their general talent advantages and how stout they’ve been in all phases of the game over the last couple months of the season. But Portland’s attacking big three (Ebobisse, Valeri, Sebastian Blanco) is riding a wave of offensive success, and the potential absences of both Marshall and Roldan could give the edge to Portland.

Atlanta United vs. NYCFC

— Atlanta’s first leg win was only 1-0, but it came on the road, in dominant fashion, and with only one half of a recovering Miguel Almiron. NYCFC were outplayed and now lose the advantages of Yankee Stadium.

— NYC coach Dome Torrent mentioned his team’s numerical disadvantage in the midfield in one of his sideline interviews. Tata Martino’s 4-3-3, with three true central midfielders, overwhelmed Torrent’s 4-2-3-1, in which Maxi Moralez looked more like a Federico Higuain-type second striker than a true midfielder.

Atlanta’s three-on-two superiority in the center stalled NYC’s ability to possess the ball in good spots, something they’ve done with volume under both Torrent and Patrick Vieira. United isolated Moralez and restricted his influence.

Playing Eric Remedi and Jeff Larentowicz next to Darlington Nagbe sacrifices two star Atlanta attackers (expect Hector Villalba and Ezequiel Barco to start on the bench again), but it makes things difficult for teams unable to pass around the deeper numbers. On a real soccer field, NYC could have more success overcoming it using width.

— NYC’s front three of David Villa, Ismael Tajouri-Shradi and one of Ronald Matarrita, Jesus Medina or Jo-Inge Berget will be key. (Torrent should choose Medina, because Matarrita is more of a defensive influence and Berget hasn’t been effective.) Villa does everything he can to hold up play and distribute, but he can only do so much when the attackers on either side of him can’t get on the ball and do stuff.

Medina can create more than Matarrita, who is there to get on the ball and sprint to the touchline, and Berget, who plays more as a target winger. Villa needs Tajouri-Shradi to make aggressive runs centrally, capitalizing on holes opened by Villa’s intelligent movement.

— How both teams will set up when and if they have to chase a goal will be interesting. Atlanta won’t run into this scenario, in all likelihood, but NYC will be chasing from kickoff. If they try a 3-5-2, we might see a Berget-Villa striking combination.

With Matarrita and Anton Tinnerholm (or an attacker like Medina) playing wing-back and Moralez under the strikers, that kind of aggressive look could threaten Atlanta.

— Tata Martino should stick with the lineup he started with in the first leg, with a front three of Julian Gressel, Josef Martinez and a roaming Almiron. There’s no reason to force Villalba onto the field already up a goal, particularly given the success of Larentowicz, Remedi and Nagbe.

He could go for it from the start with Villalba in for Remedi, though, and try to finish NYC early on the back of a huge home crowd. Given the Light Blues’ playoff history, an outright Atlanta blowout isn’t out of the question.

Columbus Crew vs. New York Red Bulls

— Columbus won the first leg 1-0 at home, on a Gyasi Zardes goal. The buildup was amazing and exactly what Gregg Berhalter wants from this Crew team:

Columbus always finds a way in the playoffs. The Red Bulls won the Supporters’ Shield on the final day of the season and now face a tough test against a Crew team that narrowly made the postseason. This feels like deja vu for NYRB.

— Federico Higuain didn’t start the game for the Crew (he was rested after the knockout round in midweek) and yet he was easily the best player on the field in his 45 minutes. He got the assist on that beautiful Zardes goal above and generally dominated a Red Bulls team that looked slow in midfield.

Columbus will be conservative as they go on the road with a lead, so Higuain’s likely 90-minute presence raises a lingering question: Will Higuain be a defensive liability? The Argentine is 34 and while Berhalter system is designed in part to shelter him, the Red Bulls could attack his side of the field and make dangerous in-roads.

Berhalter places Higuain up front next to Zardes and devotes the Crew to a 4-4-2 defensive shape, an effective way of mitigating Higuain’s declining mobility. Chris Armas will know that and respond accordingly.

— To help kill off the game, it will be interesting to see if Berhalter tries to get the Crew to build from the back and keep the ball away from New York. This could be particularly useful late in the game, if Columbus can maintain their lead. It’s a somewhat risky approach, given how ruthless the Red Bulls can press.

But the Crew were increasingly patient at the back as the game progressed and NYRB tired. This could become a question later in the second leg.

— The Red Bulls need more from Daniel Royer. Royer was quiet coming off the wing in the first leg, and Kaku was in Wil Trapp’s back pocket for the entire 90 minutes. Armas should start Marc Rzatkowski over Alex Muyl opposite Royer for more of an attacking influence. Derrick Etienne Jr. can be explosive, but he is too inconsistent to start.

— New York’s history of playoff failure — dating to the MetroStars and most recently appearing in the 2018 Concacaf Champions League semifinal second leg against bunkering Chivas — could appear once again. Bradley Wright-Phillips missed a golden chance late in the first leg and still has to prove he can score in the biggest moments.

A lot is on the line for the Red Bulls.