NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks: 11/7/18
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball!
After taking the day off from the Stacks article yesterday (only a 4 game slate), I am back to bring you the NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks to target for tonight’s whopping 10-game NBA DFS slate.
My last article centered around Russell Westbrook and Anthony Davis, who combined to score less than 75 fantasy points. It’s not uncommon for one of them to approach that number themselves, so it was quite the disappointing night.
With that being said, Russell Westbrook finds himself OUT for tonight’s match-up due to an ankle injury and while the game against the Cavs is not a game stack that I’ll be targeting, this will open up some value (will hit on later) for our NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball stacks.
As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Primary Game Stack – Minnesota Timberwolves @ Los Angeles Lakers
Timberwolves Team Ranks:
Pace: 12th (104.4 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 16th (105.5 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 29th (113.2 points allowed per 100 possessions)
There may not be two bigger burning dumpster fires than the Timberwolves and Lakers right now, so why not stack them when they square off?!
Jimmy Butler ($9.2k FD / $8.2k DK) is currently listed as questionable because of how he’s been holding himself out of games, but I doubt he misses this National TV showdown against LeBron James. In their first meeting this season, Butler erupted for 32 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 blocks and a steal. He’ll be locked into heavy minutes as the primary defender against LeBron, making him a phenomenal play for his price on DraftKings.
Jeff Teague has already been ruled out for tonight’s game, thrusting Derrick Rose ($5.5k FD / $5.6k DK) and Tyus Jones ($4.3k FD / $4.9k DK) into expanded roles. Last game without Teague, it was Rose who drew the start, dropping 21 points while Jones only saw 15 minutes of playing time.
This has been a carousel throughout the season and I expect Jones’ minutes to spike back up a bit in this pace-up matchup. Rose holds a team-high 31.8% usage rate with Teague off the court, making him a super solid cash game play on both sites, while Jones’ is a riskier GPP option that will save you some salary.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9.4k FD / $8.8k DK) has finally gotten back on track, topping 55 fantasy points in 3 of his last 5 games. He’s posted 4 double-doubles in that span and has averaged 21.8 points, 12 rebounds, 3.2 assists, 2.2 blocks and 1.6 steals in 33.7 minutes per game in that stretch.
The Lakers allow the 2nd most fantasy points per game in the league to opposing centers (66.99), so he has another opportunity to smash here. He’s a great secondary-stud on tonight’s slate, especially for a discount on DraftKings.
Another player that could provide a steady floor for cash games is Taj Gibson ($4.9k FD / $4.5k DK). He’s posted at least 27 fantasy points in 5 of his last 8 games (5.5-6.0x his current salary on FD/DK) and has pulled down a total of 17 rebounds over his last two games. We know that the Lakers struggle to contain bigs on the glass, so this could be another game in which Gibson has a heightened floor.
Lakers Team Ranks:
Pace: 4th (108.0 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 10th (108.7 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 23rd (110.3 points allowed per 100 possessions)
Yet another dumpster fire is the Los Angeles Lakers. While Luke Walton‘s coaching job is supposedly secure, if they don’t string together some wins, I have a feeling LeBron will change Walton’s status.
LeBron James ($11.2k FD / $11.1k DK) feels way too cheap, regardless of the fact that he’ll see Jimmy Butler defense assuming that Butler plays. In their game last week, James posted a 29-point, 10-rebound, 8-assist stat line with a pair of both blocks and steals.
The Timberwolves also rank 2nd last in the entire league in team defensive efficiency, so I find it hard to believe anyone will be able to stop LeBron on a drive not named Jimmy Butler. Frankly, he won’t be able to either. He’s my top stud on the slate tonight and it’s not close.
While James is the clear cut center of the game stack, the Lakers’ supporting cast all have reasonable price tags that make them extremely enticing options. Brandon Ingram ($5.9k FD / $5.7k DK) finds himself below $6k on both sites and with Jimmy Butler likely matching up with LeBron, that make leave him with Andrew Wiggins defense.
For those of you that are unaware, Wiggins’ defense is rather non-existent. He ranked 71st out of 75 qualified SFs in DRPM (defensive real plus/minus) last season, aka a bottom 5 defending SF in the LEAGUE. Ingram is a phenomenal play on both sites tonight based on matchup alone.
Point guards Lonzo Ball ($5.7k FD / $5.2k DK) and Rajon Rondo ($5.7k FD / $5.1k DK) have been splitting the PG duties virtually in half lately. This severely limits their upside with their minutes rather capped, but if I had to choose, Rondo gets my vote.
He’s averaging over a fantasy points per minute (1.08) and has a higher usage rate, rebounding rate, and assist rate than ball. He’s the perfect PG to put on the court with LeBron.
Josh Hart ($4.3k FD / $4.1k DK) has seen his minutes spike back up, seeing 26.3 over his last 5 games. His price has not yet caught up to the opportunity he is seeing, making him an attractive NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball value play.
NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Secondary Game Stack – New York Knicks at Atlanta Hawks
Knicks Team Ranks:
Pace: 25th (101.0 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 26th (102.7 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 18th (108.3 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Knicks were half of arguably the most exciting game of the week on Monday night in a 2OT thriller against the Bulls. This was also a game in which Tim Hardaway Jr. ($7.5k FD / $7.8k DK) was “active” off the bench but failed to touch the court. I have a hard time believing that happens again and fully expect him to start.
If that’s the case, he’s arguably the best mid-range SG on the slate. He’s posted an elite 33.2% usage rate and his first game against the Hawks this season, he poured in 31 points with 6 rebounds and 5 assists. If you’re into a good revenge narrative, then this play is for you.
Enes Kanter ($7.3k FD / $7.1k DK) saw a season-high 40 minutes last game and erupted for 23 points, 24 rebounds and 7 assists against the Bulls.
While this likely means he’ll be back around his low-to-mid 20s regarding minutes this game, his matchup against the foul-prone Alex Len lines up for another smash spot. He’s a fantastic GPP play tonight and would be a great cash play if we had certainty he would see ample run.
The rest of the Knicks are hard to pin-point because all of their minutes are so erratic. Allonzo Trier ($4.2k FD / $4.5k DK) has seen at least 21 minutes in 5 straight games while going over 21 Fanduel points in 4 of those 5. He’s a great cash-game SG2 if you’re looking to save some salary. Aside from Trier, I don’t trust the Knicks value plays enough to endorse them in cash games.
Hawks Team Ranks:
Pace: 1st (109.5 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 28th (101.5 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 21st (109.5 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Hawks are seeing a major downgrade in pace, but the fact that these teams struggle defensively should negate some of the pace difference when it comes to production.
Trae Young ($7.6k FD / $7.6k DK) has recorded 3 straight double-doubles, averaging 18.7 points and 11.7 assists over that span in 29.4 minutes per game. He doesn’t contribute much in the steals category, but he’s held his own on the glass (3.2 rebounds per game) and can get hot quick (already has scored 35 in a game). The Knicks are stout against PGs (26th overall in DvP), but I think Young is a phenomenal GPP play tonight and should come at little to no ownership.
If Taurean Prince is inactive again (he sat out Tuesday with an ankle injury), we can fire up Jeremy Lin ($3.8k FD / $3.7k DK), DeAndre Bembry ($4.9k FD / $4.6k DK) and Kevin Huerter ($3.6k FD / $3.4k DK).
Huerter drew the start for the injured Prince last night, playing a career-high 32 minutes while posting 28.5 Fanduel points. He recorded 4 combined steals and blocks, so we cannot expect him to repeat that, but those minutes for that price are enticing enough to warrant a droppable punt on FanDuel.
Lin is a high usage player when on the court, fresh off of a 19 point game in 18 minutes. He’s now topped 26 fantasy points in 3 of his last 4 games and his price is STILL under $4k on both sites. Like Huerter, he makes for an extremely sensible punt on both sites.
Bembry’s price is starting to rise to the point where I may be a bit uncomfortable recommending him, but I do expect him to carry ownership if Prince is out. He could still be in line for the start regardless of the fact that Huerter drew it last night.
NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Top Value Stacks
Oklahoma City Thunder
Pace: 5th (107.8 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 19th (104.8 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 8th (103.5 points allowed per 100 possessions)
With Russell Westbrook confirmed out, this should open up a handful of opportunity for the secondary pieces of the Thunder. The primary beneficiary will obviously be Paul George ($10.2k FD / $9.1k DK), but FanDuel was quick to react to his recent production.
He comes in as one of the value plays from a point-per-dollar standpoint on DraftKings, as he owns a 34.7% usage rate with Westbrook off of the court.
Perhaps the top value play on the slate is Dennis Schroder ($6.4k FD / $6.9k DK). Again, this is a play that is considered a value play from a point-per-dollar standpoint more so than strictly his salary.
With Westbrook off the court, he’s averaging 1.06 fantasy points per minute with a 32.2% usage rate. The Cavs are dead last in the league in team defensive efficiency (115.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) and if this game ends in a blowout, Schroder should still see ample run.
Jerami Grant ($5.4k FD / $5.1k DK) has seen his role expand over the last two games, averaging 32.5 minutes with 17.5 points, 5 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.5 steals per game. He’s also posted double-digit points in 6 straight games. With Westbrook out, we could see this continue for quite a reasonable price. He’s another player that could see extended run should this be a blowout.
Memphis Grizzlies
Pace: 30th (98.4 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 18th (104.9 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 10th (104.3 points allowed per 100 possessions)
I wrote up the Grizzlies against the Warriors on Monday and it didn’t work out. Tonight should be different.
We’ve seen the salary of Mike Conley ($7.3k FD / $7.3k DK) drop after two mediocre games on the Grizzlies B2B earlier int he week. Before those games, Conley had posted at least 37 fantasy points in 5 of the previous 6 games, going over 40 in 3 of them.
The Nuggets are a good defensive team, but Jamal Murray is their weak link. He was just torched for 30+ from Kyrie Irving last game and 76th out of 82 qualified point guards in DRPM last season.
Garrett Temple ($4.2k FD / $4.4k DK) continues to be a cheap source of minutes, as he’s seen at least 27 in his last 4 games with 3 of those going for 34 minutes or more. He’s an erratic scorer so his ceiling isn’t the highest, but you could do a whole lot worse at his salary.
One value play that I really like for GPPs tonight is Jaren Jackson Jr. ($5.9k FD / $4.9k DK). He started off the season hot and fizzled out rather quickly until the Warriors game. He saw 32 minutes (season-high) in that game and posted 15 points, 6 rebounds, 2 assists and 5 blocks.
While we cannot rely on a literal handful of blocks every game, the rise in minutes shows the trust they have in him. He matches up great with Trey Lyles (not so much Paul Millsap) and could see some extended run if this game gets out of hand. The $5k-$6k range is ripe with PF options tonight which is limiting me to recommending Jackson for GPPs, but he could be a difference maker.
Kyle Anderson ($4.8k FD / $4.1k DK) has been a massive disappointment early in the season, but he’s still seeing minutes in the upper 20s and can contribute across the box score. He has to break out of his slump at some point and won’t hurt you too badly if he doesn’t. He’ll likely carry a bit of ownership in cash games on FanDuel as a SF2 and it’s not the worst idea in the world.
Next. DraftKings NBA Main Slate Nov 7. dark