Fantasy NBA Game By Game Breakdown, Thursday November 8

We have another small four game slate on our hands tonight so let’s get this slate broken down and figure out who to play for Fantasy NBA tonight!

So before we get to far down the road here, I would like to point out that I try to ride the middle on these breakdowns as far as DraftKings or FanDuel, for Fantasy NBA. Hopefully some of the stats and trends are useful for both sites, but my personal default is DK.

I don’t really play FD at all and it’s important to note that the sites are very different in price and scoring. Keep that in mind when reading and don’t ever hesitate to tweet me at @bucn4life and I’ll help the best I can or tag someone in from the CPR team that can. Alright, let’s go to work!

Fantasy NBA – Rockets at Thunder

Pace Ranking – Rockets at 22nd, Thunder at 5th

Rockets FPPM Leaders – James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela

To the surprise of nobody, James Harden sits fourth in the NBA in usage and second in drives per game. That second number could be important in this spot because the Thunder are giving up the highest field goal percentage on shots between 5-9 feet from the hoop.

Harden is shooting just 25 percent from that range this season, down from about 33-34 percent the past two years. This could be a spot for that percentage to start heading back up. Both Harden and Paul are cheaper than we normally see them tonight.

From there, Clint Capela and Steven Adams have a history of mostly canceling each other out in their 10 career games. Both players average under 11 points and right about seven boards so if that trend held up, neither play would be anything special this evening.

This could be a bad matchup for the Thunder since they allow the fifth highest field goal percentage from beyond the arc. The Rockets are hoisting an incredible 41.9 three’s a game and should be able to find the bottom of the net in this one.

Harden himself is over nine attempts a game, followed by Eric Gordon, Carmelo Anthony and Chris Paul. You could find some value from the Rockets, especially if Eric Gordon is ruled out.

Both small and power forwards have done well against the Thunder so far this season, putting guys like Anthony and P.J. Tucker as potential values depending on how news breaks. Just keep in mind that neither player carries a FPPM over 0.86 so far this year.

Players To Consider – James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela, Carmelo Anthony, P.J. Tucker, Gerald Green

Thunder FPPM Leaders – Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams

The biggest question on the slate is the health of Russell Westbrook. He suffered an ankle injury a few nights ago and missed last night’s game, leaving him in doubt for this one. If he’s active, he carries a little more risk than Westbrook normally does.

If he’s not, we’re going to have some options from Oklahoma that will garner extra attention. Paul George actually drops just a hair in FPPM without Westbrook on the floor from 1.28 to 1.21 but is still carrying a monster usage rate of 34.7 percent.

Not only would he be tasked with being one of the main scorers but the Rockets sit 23rd in rebound percentage. That’s a spot where George can rack up some additional stats without Westbrook.

Right behind George in usage with no Westbrook is Dennis Schroder. His usage is only two percent behind and the FPPM is right there as well. While all that is fine, dealing with Chris Paul defense is going to be tricky and that’s something to consider when rostering him this evening.

As we mentioned before, Steven Adams has battled Cappela to a stalemate but does score 1.04 FPPM when Westbrook is off the floor. What intrigues me with Adams is the Rockets are giving up the 10th most field goal attempts within five feet and the fifth highest field goal percentage.

Adams has attempted basically every shot this year with eight feet of the basket. A player like Jerami Grant could be in play here as well as the Thunder will be on a back to back situation and he already sees 30 minutes a game. That makes up for his 0.73 FPPM.

Players to Consider – Paul George, Dennis Schroder, Steven Adams, Jerami Grant

Fantasy NBA – Celtics at Suns

Pace Ranking – Celtics at 19th, Suns at 20th

Celtics FPPM Leaders – Kyrie Irving, Al Horford, Marcus Morris

The Celtics aren’t the best team in terms of daily fantasy. Part of it is eight members of their team average over 22 minutes per game so there’s a lot of hands in the proverbial pie. On top of that, Irving has the highest usage rate on the Celtics but it’s just at 26.5.

Tied for second on the list is Jason Tatum and Marcus Morris at 23.4 so there is definitely not a usage monster to target. There are a couple of plays that stand out a little bit and one of them is indeed Tatum.

He does lead the team in minutes and averages 0.95 FPPM when he’s on the floor. The Suns have gotten beat up by small forwards this year, giving up the sixth most fantasy points. The problem on DK remains the price. You would need about 39 points from Tatum to reach the 6x mark and his odds of doing that given the current stats aren’t great.

The other Boston player that I’m very interested in is Al Horford. The Suns have Deandre Ayton down low but he’s not proven to be very intimidating defensively to this point if DK points to opposing centers is any indication.

The Suns are the second most generous team to opposing centers and Horford has so many ways he can hurt you with a 23.3 assist percentage. It’s fair to point out that his rebound percentage is down to a career low 9.5 percent but this seems like a spot to correct that.

Past those two, Boston players are on the radar but typically need a player to be out to heavily consider them unless it’s a wonderful matchup. Irving gets a nice matchup but needs 48 DK points to hit 6x. He’s been under 35 in five of his last 10 contests.

Players to Consider – Al Horford, Jason Tatum, Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, Gordon Hayward, Jaelyn Brown

Suns FPPM Leaders – Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, T.J. Warren

This is not a spot to use the Suns heavily. The Celtics give up the fewest points in basketball and match it with the best defensive rating.

When you combine that with the pace numbers, it’s hard to get too excited. The leaders in Booker and Ayton both draw bottom 10 matchups by position as well so it’s hard to find much. I usually won’t try to attack a brick wall and that’s how the Celtics have performed.

Booker does have a usage well over 30 percent which is usually attractive but I’d rather not spend on him with all the other guards at my disposal.  Phoenix is likely a fade for me tonight.

Players to Consider – Devin Booker, Deandre Ayton, T.J. Warren, Isaiah Cannan and Trevor Ariza as values if needed

Fantasy NBA – Clippers at Blazers

Pace Rankings – Clippers at 9th, Blazers at 16th

Clippers FPPM Leaders – Boban Marjanovic, Tobias Harris, Danilo Gallinari

BOBAN!!! Ok, more seriously now. With the Clippers, it’s generally just a few guys that we want to look at. We have to talk about Boban and try to figure out what to do with him. The FPPM are unbelievable but there’s concern about how many minutes he will get.

He’s yet to exceed 23 and the last game he sat out the entire fourth quarter for just 18 minutes. He still scored 27 DK points and it worked but the price is over $5,000. He needs 33 points and would need at least 23 minutes given his current pace.

On top of that, the Blazers are a middle of the pack matchup and is fourth in rebound rate. Boban is a giant of a man but I’m not sure if he’s matchup proof quite yet.

Tobias Harris just feels like a safe player every night regardless of matchup or anything else around him. He’s leading the Clippers at a little over 33 minutes a game and the price tag is right on the high end of being fair.

One player that is actually a better FPPM player than Harris or Gollanari is Montrezl Harrell. He gets about 23 minutes per game and is at a 1.23 FPPM mark. Given the Blazers lineup construction, he could see a few more minutes in this game.

He actually saw 30 minutes in the last game and that marked back to back games where he’s seen 25 or more. Lou Williams is always in play as well in a solid matchup and a 33.9 usage rate off the bench.

Players to Consider – Tobias Harris, Danilo Gallinari, Montrezl Harrell, Boban Marjanovic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander if Avery Bradley is out, Lou Williams

Blazers FPPM Leaders – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, C.J. McCollum

Both of these teams are in the top 12 in points allowed so there’s a good chance this could be on the lower end of the scoring tonight. I wasn’t remotely on C.J. McCollum this past game because he’s getting almost literally no time without Lillard on the floor last season.

That was a big boost to his fantasy value last year and it hasn’t carried over. Having said that, either one of these guards can shoot the lights out on any given night. The one issue with them could be the Clippers are allowing the fifth lowest field goal percentage on three’s.

That makes up almost 40 percent of the shots Lillard takes and 36 percent for McCollum. It’s something to note in this spot.

Past the guards, there’s plays to be had with Jusuf Nurkic and maybe Al-Farouq Aminu. Both these teams are good on the glass with a top ten rebounding percentage and I’m interested to see how the Clippers match up with Nurkic when he’s on the floor.

Do they try to match size with Boban or try Harrell there? Aminu sees the third most minutes but doesn’t have a ton of usage of FPPM. He’s player that can pop up if his shot falls some nights. The big dip for him has come from attempting fewer shots across the board this season.

Evan Turner is emerging a little bit as well. Since Lillard and McCollum are off the floor at the same time, Turner has been running the second unit a good bit. The production is scattered but he’s showing 40 point upside.

Players to Consider – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Evan Turner,  Al-Farouq Aminu

Fantasy NBA – Bucks at Warriors

Pace Rankings – Bucks at 6th, Warriors at 10th

Bucks FPPM Leaders – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe

This game is going to be a blast to watch and I’m excited for Giannis in a spot that should carry a super fast pace and he should dominate in. Draymond Green will miss this game which is one less body the Warriors can use to try and slow him down.

His usage is still tops in basketball and the 1.70 FPPM is incredible. You really don’t need a reason to play Antetokounmpo tonight whatsoever. The question turns to who you can play with him to get some pieces of this game.

With the Warriors very likely to run small in this game, Ersan Ilyasova could be a nice cheap option. You need to spend down somewhere if rostering some of the studs this evening. If he sees his normal allotment of minutes in a fast paced game, he could provide some solid value and a little bit of three point shooting. 46.3 of his shot attempts are beyond the arc and he has a 12 percent rebounding rate as well which could come in handy in this game.

Khris Middleton will likely see Klay Thompson on defense but I’m not as concerned if they can keep this game close. He’s trying right around eight three pointers a contest and should be able to attempt and make a couple extra given the environment. Eric Bledsoe is a perfectly fine option and has a decent 1.09 FPPM but the guard position is so loaded tonight, I’m not sure I’ll go that route.

Players to Consider – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe, Ersan Ilyasova, Malcolm Brogdon

Warriors FFPM Leaders(With Draymond Green off the court) – Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, Jonas Jerebko

There’s a pretty solid chance I’m going to have ALL the Steph Curry tonight. It’s a natural assumption to think that he and Kevin Durant would carry the load with Green out of the lineup. Well, in right about 134 minutes this year, Curry has a gargantuan 44.2 usage and 1.75 FPPM.

That’s higher than Giannis by just a little bit! The usage is about 11 percent higher than Durant and the FPPM is about .30 higher as well.

The Bucks have faced the most three pointers in basketball and while they have defended the three well so far, this is Curry we’re talking about. Given the percentages and usage, I’ll take Curry in this spot.

One way to get to Curry is to potentially pair him with Jerebko for cheap. He’s only seeing 16.5 minutes a game but that stands to jump a little without Green on the floor and in a limited sample size, Jerebko has produced a 1.16 FPPM mark.

Even a bump to 20 minutes would have him right at the 6x mark for his salary. Obviously Durant is going to be popular and even Klay Thompson could be a solid guard play. He’s shooting 46.9 percent from three the past 10 days and this could be a game for the old school Splash Brothers given how many three’s the Bucks face every night.

Be sure to monitor news to see if we get word on how the Warriors will replace Green through the day.

Players to Consider – Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Jonas Jerebko, Kevon Looney, Alfonzo McKinnie, Jordan Bell

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