What you can expect of a Bryce Harper contract

There hasn’t been a free agent like Bryce Harper in a decade or more. Which is why his contract may look a little different, too.

This is a good time for teams to play hard to get with Bryce Harper in the free agent pool. We’ve already had reports that the Cubs, Dodgers, and Yankees are shying away from huge luxury tax penalties, in a seeming, “I’m not looking at you across the bar,” fashion. Maybe they’re serious. Maybe they’re just trying to lower the boxcars numbers Harper is going to get by any amount they can. Next they’ll be punching Harper and his agent Scott Boras in the arm in the playground and then running away.

But players don’t like Harper don’t end up in the shop window very often, which is why he’s going to have a host of suitors. And at least one is going to be desperate enough to acquiesce to most of his demands. Which means the contract could get a little silly, not just in numbers but in structure as well.

This is Scott Boras at work too, and he’s not going to shorten his time with all eyes on him by any stretch. This is how you attract new clients that make the GDP of most European nations. You make yourself the center of attention, and you maximize your client’s worth.

So what are we in for?

Opt-outs! Get Your Opt-outs!: Most free agents hit the market at 29 or 30 or older, and they know this is probably the last big contract they’re going to get. At least the last one that makes it on the ticker of ESPN or Fox Sport or whatever. They may strike one more deal at 34 or 35, but it’s highly unlikely, especially now when common thinking has most baseball players turning into decrepit mules at 32.

That’s not the case when you’re 26, as Harper is. Harper could conceivably cash in again at 29 or 30. Or 28. That was the theory behind Jason Heyward, who hit the market at a springy 27, getting an opt-out after three years (going great so far!).

So you can expect Harper to have opt-outs as early as two years into the deal, certainly no more than three, and maybe one or two more after that. And hey, look at that, three years into this deal the current CBA runs out. And it’s not like Scott Boras, who wields no power within the MLBPA at all, is going to push for a new CBA with a significantly higher or no luxury tax threshold at all. And Harper will be 29 then. Funny how that works.

Which means…

Your better be ready to win in that window: If there’s a new CBA with more player-friendly terms, you can be sure Harper is opting out for them. Which means you’d look awfully dumb if you signed Harper, paid him $100-110 million or more over three years and ended up with nothing more than a handful of yourself.

So the noise the White Sox are making about signing him is cute, but doesn’t make a lot of sense unless they plan on paying him more later in the deal than early. The Giants probably have to go for it considering the age of their core players, but really, where are they going with the duct-taped remains of Madison Bumgarner and Buster Posey coming off surgery and various men holding a squeegee in the outfield?

You can see why the Phillies are considered the front-runner, and despite their protestations the Cubs as well, Those teams are ready to take on the next three years like there’s no tomorrow.

There will be a mystery team: This is a Boras client. Right before he inks with the Phils or Angels or whatever, there will be a breathless report from a sweaty baseball wonk saying there’s a mystery team in on the bidding, trying to squeeze every last dollar out of whoever Harper was going to sign with anyway.

It’s amazing that everyone keeps falling for this, but no writer wants to then suffer the off-chance that he signs with the Rockies or something and he or she had no inkling. Especially with any internet cave troll able to claim that they had it. You can’t lose to cave trolls!

Who’s the mystery team? The Rangers? The Brewers? Is it you? You could be the mystery team! Congratulations!

Get ready folks, it’s about to be a ride.