FanDuel NFL DFS: Week 10 GPP Pivots

FanDuel NFL DFS:  Week 10 GPP Pivots

What’s up, everyone?  After writing about nothing but the NBA for several weeks now I’m back on the NFL beat this week and looking to give our loyal FantasyCPR readers some GPP pivots off the chalk for your Week 10 Fanduel NFL DFS contests!

I’m going to go position by position and try to identify the chalk plays at each position and then recommend my preferred pivot. The goal here is to try to find a lower-owned play that outperforms the chalkier play, giving you leverage over the field in your GPPs.

I use a variety of sources to identify ownership, and by this point in the week we start to see the DFS community start to consolidate ownership around 2-3 plays at every position, leaving a number of solid players in good spots overlooked.

Remember, you don’t need to build an entire roster of contrarian plays! What you need to find is the low-owned player or stack that goes off and shoots you ahead of the competition. Pairing low-owned plays with chalkier plays is usually the way to go.

Chalky plays are usually good plays, but not always. NFL, like every other sport, is filled with variance and anything can happen on any given Sunday! (now I feel like rostering “Steamin’ Willie Beamen”)

Let’s get into the picks this week!

FanDuel NFL DFS:  Quarterback

Chalk: Jared Goff, Drew Brees

Pivots: Aaron Rodgers (8600)  vs. Miami, Philip Rivers (8200) @Oakland

I’m seeing Rodgers ownership estimated in the single digits as of right now and anytime I can get a QB of his caliber at low ownership in a plus matchup at home, I’m going to be very interested.  Miami’s pass defense comes in ranked 23rd overall in the NFL.

If Miami hangs around, which I think they could be based on how mediocre the Green Bay defense is, then Rodgers should have plenty of opportunities to rack up passing yards and TDs and he’s always a threat to run one in on the ground as well.

Rivers has one of the top matchups on the board against Oakland, whose defense ranks dead last in pass defense this season. Rivers tends to get overlooked on a weekly basis, but he has as much as upside as anyone and has plenty of weapons in his arsenal in that Chargers’ offense.

He’s thrown 2 or 3 TDs in every game this season and he’s got a 4-TD game up his sleeve here one of these weeks.  I love stacking Rivers with Melvin Gordon and/or one of his main receivers Keenan Allen or Tyrell Williams.

FanDuel NFL DFS: Running Back

Chalk: Todd Gurley, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt

Pivots: David Johnson (6900) @KC, Duke Johnson (5600) vs. Atlanta, Dion Lewis (5800) vs. NE

You’ll see a theme here with my selections as each of these of these guys is a pass-catching back playing for a team that is projected to lose, providing them a game script that would result in a lot of passing game work and check-downs as their teams try to come from behind.

The trend on FD has been to pay up at running back in cash games and we almost always see cash game roster construction bleed over into GPPs. Paying down at RB and up at WR and TE is going to give you some unique builds this week.

Playing pass-catching backs on FanDuel is always somewhat risky in that it’s only a half-point per reception scoring. We have a tendency to want workhorse backs and guys who get goalline carries on FD with how important touchdowns are in FanDuel scoring.

However, all three of these guys have serious upside in their current roles and David Johnson is the only one who didn’t get in the end zone last week.

Let’s start with DJ. His Cardinals are massive underdogs on Sunday on the road against arguably the best team in the NFL. However, the Chiefs defense is still ranked next to last and they’ve been gashed by running backs all season long.

Arizona will likely look to feature DJ early and often as he is really their only reliable offensive weapon and he’s pretty game script proof even if they go down big early as he should get plenty of pass game work. Who would have thought two years ago we’d see David Johnson for under 7k on FanDuel.

FanDuel NFL DFS: Running Back

Duke Johnson is coming off his best game as a pro, catching 9 balls for 78 yards and two TDs against those Chiefs last week. He has the ultimate matchup for a pass-catching back as the Browns take on Atlanta at home.

You’d have to think Cleveland looks to keep him involved in the offense based on how explosive he was last week He might end up chalky on Draftkings, but I doubt we see that ownership bleed over into FanDuel.

Dion Lewis has a “revenge narrative” here this week against his former New England squad. I don’t really do narratives in DFS (I know, I’m super boring) because I really need some statistical reasons to roster a player.

It’s hard to quantify how badly a player wants to show up his former team and I know the game is played by humans, not robots, but I need actionable, quantifiable data from which to draw my conclusions.

Ok, so the good news is that Lewis is in a really good spot here without the narrative BS. He’s taken over the Titans backfield in the last two weeks to the tune of 19 and 23 touches. The game script is perfect here as Tennesee is a full touchdown underdog at home to the defending AFC champs and New England ranks 25th in the NFL against pass-catching backs.

FanDuel NFL DFS: Wide Receiver

Chalk: Michael Thomas, Tyler Boyd, Jarvis Landry

Pivots:  Davante Adams (8600) vs. Miami, Tyreek Hill (7600) vs. Arizona

If I’m running out Aaron Rodgers in GPPs, then I’m definitely going to stack him with his favorite target DaVante Adams for a great correlation play. All the buzz around the Green Bay passing game is around the very cheap rookie Marquez Valdes-Scantling with Geronimo Allison out for the year and Randall Cobb appearing to have a diminished role these days.

Consider that Adams has caught a TD in all but two of the Packers’ eight games this year and is averaging just under 11 targets per game.  He’s also third in the NFL with 17 red zone targets this season.  I think people will try to focus on the Green Bay running game with the Packers being 9.5 point home favorites. A low owned Rodgers-Adams stack could result in a massive score this weekend.

The Chiefs have a massive 33-point implied team total but all of their big 3 primary offensive options (Mahomes, Kelce, and Hunt) are all ridiculously priced as FanDuel tries to make you think twice about just loading up on Chiefs every week.

The cheapest way to get exposure to the Chiefs might be with Tyreek “the Freak” Hill, who is coming off two sub-par performances in his last two games.

The Chiefs just simply haven’t needed Hill lately with how efficient Mahomes has been in dropping the ball off to Hunt and Kelce, but Hill still has massive big play potential and can break any slate with multiple TDs off long receptions, punt returns, or even reverses in the running game.

He’s fifth in the NFL in air yards and if he hooks up with Mahomes in the deep passing game, then he could put up a big number on Sunday at low ownership. Don’t forget about the forgotten man in the powerful KC offense.

FanDuel NFL DFS: Tight End

Chalk: Travis Kelce, Trey Burton

Pivots: O.J. Howard (6500) @ Washington, Jordan Reed (5200) vs. Tampa

Both of my pivots are coming from the same game here as the Buccaneers travel to the nation’s capital to take on the Redskins. This game features two bad pass defenses and two QB’s who love to target their tight ends.

O.J. Howard‘s price will make some people think twice (he’s the third most expensive TE on the slate), but I’m willing to pay up for him as in tournaments. Ryan Fitzpatrick loves to target the big guy in the red zone and has tossed him 3 TDs in the last game and half. Howard is clearly being phased into a larger role in the offense while Cam Brate is seeing fewer snaps and targets this season.

Will this be the week that Jordan Reed finally breaks out? It’s been an odd season for the once elite pass-catching TE as he has only one TD on the year and his season-high receiving yards in a game is 65 yards.

Coming into this season, it seemed Reed would be a perfect fit for Alex Smith in the passing game with how well Smith had worked with Travis Kelce in Kansas City. But it’s week 10 and we’re still waiting for that chemistry to develop.

If there was ever going to be a spot it’s going to happen, it’s here. Tampa is 29th in the league against tight ends and their pass defense is frankly just pathetic. Factor in that pass-catching back Chris Thompson has been ruled out and one would have to think that Smith would be looking Reed’s way in the short and intermediate pass game.

Reed does have 9 and 12 target games this season but has caught no more than 7 balls in a game.  5200 for an athlete like Jordan Reed in a spot like this feels almost as criminal as DJ’s price in his spot.

FanDuel NFL DFS: Defense

Chalk: Chicago, New England, L.A. Chargers

Pivot: Detroit (3300) @ Chicago

I made the mistake of fading Chicago’s defense last week and paid for it as they scored two defensive touchdowns while racking up 4 sacks and 3 interceptions. If you have 5000 to spend on a defense, by all means, they’re worth spending up at home for with how turnover-prone Matt Stafford has been in his career.

But I’m always interested in paying down at defense when I can and I think there’s an easy pivot off Chicago to Detroit’s defense in the same game.  The Lions defense played pretty well last week on the road against a good Vikings team, only allowing 18 points and coming up with two turnovers.

Are we sure this Bears offense is really that good?  They rank 17th in total offense and 21st in passing. Sure, the Howard-Cohen 1-2 punch at running back is solid, but if Detroit can slow the run game down and force the Bears to pass they could be in good shape.

The Lions have the #1 “adjusted sack rate” at 10% and 24 sacks on the season. If they can limit the damage in the running game, I think they may just force Trubisky into some bad throws or force him to take some sacks.

FanDuel NFL DFS: Sample Lineup and Slate Overview

To review, I like flipping my roster construction when building GPP lineups, meaning paying up where others are paying down in the optimal cash builds. This week that means paying up at receiver and down at running back.

Remember, the sample lineups are just for illustrative purposes and not intended to be “plug and play” lineups. I am using them to show the types of builds I’m making and what correlations I’m looking at. I made one with Packers stack and the other with a Chargers stack. You’ll notice there’s some chalky plays mixed in with the low owned options I mentioned throughout the article.

Rodgers Lineup

QB: Aaron Rodgers (8600)

RB: David Johnson (6900)

RB: Dion Lewis (5800)

WR: Davante Adams (8600)

WR: Tyreek Hill (7600)

WR: Marquez Valdes-Scantling

TE: O.J. Howard

FLEX: Duke Johnson

DEF: Chicago

Rivers Lineup

QB: Philip Rivers (8200)

RB: Duke Johnson (5600)

RB: Melvin Gordon (8900)

WR: Tyrell Williams (6500)

WR: Michael Thomas (8600)

WR: Tyler Boyd (7800)

TE: Jordan Reed (5200)

FLEX: Dion Lewis (5800)

DEF: Detroit

That’s all I got guys, I hope this article helps you build some GPP winners this weekend. As always, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS with questions and comments and continue to look for in-depth NBA and NFL analysis from me and the rest of the FantasyCPR team!