Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies: Week 10

Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 10

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate Fantasy Football predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story. That is why we’re looking at Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies for Week 10.

Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation.

Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

Pass Funnel Defenses:

NO (Pass: 29th, Run: 3rd), IND (Pass: 25th, Run 13th), DAL (Pass: 26th, Run: 4th), CAR (Pass: 20th, Run: 7th), HOU (Pass: 15th, Run: 1st)

Run Funnel Defenses:

KC (Pass: 14th, Run: 32nd), LARM (Pass: 12th, Run: 24th), PHI (Pass: 9th, Run: 23rd), CLE (Pass: 2nd, Run: 30th), DEN (Pass: 1st, Run: 21st)

Cleveland ranks 2nd against the pass, and 30th against the run
Atlanta will head to Cleveland this Sunday, and are currently -5 point favorites. This number opened around 3 and has been bet out to where it currently sits. The Falcons will look to continue their winning ways, after winning three games in a row, and hanging 38 points on the Redskins.

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One obvious matchup to take advantage of, is the run funnel defense that is the Cleveland Browns. With Devonta Freeman sidelined, the running game has struggled, but I think they should have success in this spot.

Unfortunately, Ito Smith is cutting into Tevin Coleman‘s workload, so unless you can get Coleman for a cheap price on a DFS site, there is little to be desired from a DFS perspective. The upside for DFS may be capped, but I will be targeting player props for both Coleman and Smith this week.

Los Angeles ranks 12th against the pass, and 24th against the run

These numbers shouldn’t be much of a surprise as Wade Phillips and the Rams intentionally focus on stopping the pass. Phillips is one of the better defenses minds in football and combined with McVay, they are ahead of the curve in terms of the game theory of allowing opponents to have success on the ground.

That being said, Seattle is one of the most run heavy teams in the league and they should be able to take advantage of this. If Chris Carson cannot play, Mike Davis could be in line for a huge role on Sunday.

The Rams are coming off of two marquee games, and this game is sandwiched between a Monday night showdown against the Chiefs, in Mexico. This could be the right combination of Seattle fighting for their lives and the Rams with a bit of a let down. I like the Seattle offense to exceed their projected team total this week.

Overall Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies: Defense

TB (32nd), OAK (31st), ATL (30th), DET (29th), NO (28th), KC (27th)