NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks: 11/9/18
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks articles!
Welcome back to another edition of NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks! We took yesterday’s 4-game mini slate off and return tonight with a 7-game Friday NBA slate to close out the work week. Unlike past slates, this one is a bit tougher to dissect from a stacking standpoint with no Pelicans, Warriors, Lakers, Bucks, etc. on the slate.
As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
11/7/18 Recap:
Wednesday’s stacking article centered around the Timberwolves vs Lakers late-night showdown and didn’t disappoint. The game ended with 224 total points and stayed close throughout. Derrick Rose (38.1 FDP) and Taj Gibson (42.7 FDP) were the article standouts from the Minnesota side of the ball while LeBron James (52.5 FDP) and Brandon Ingram (41 FDP) paced the Lakers offensive attack.
While players like Karl-Anthony Towns and Mike Conley disappointed, Tim Hardaway Jr. (49.7 FDP) and Dennis Schroder (40.4 FDP) were two more standouts from the write up.
11/9/18 Outlook:
Tonight’s slate is rather interesting from a stacking perspective, as we have no star-studded teams in action and there isn’t a matchup that will jump off the pace at you when you look at the Vegas data.
With that being said, we still have teams in great spots to target, starting with our Primary Game Stack!
Primary Game Stack: Minnesota Timberwolves @ Sacramento Kings
Timberwolves Team Ranks:
Pace: 12th (104.1 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 14th (105.8 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 29th (113.2 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Timberwolves are one of the teams becoming a regular in these articles for a handful of reasons; they’ve had an injury carousel at point guard for the entire season, opening up a ton of opportunity for some value players, and Jimmy Butler is a rest candidate just about every game.
Tonight, we already have news that Jeff Teague will again be out, leaving Derrick Rose ($6.0k FD / $6.8k DK) to man the backcourt yet again, in a pace-up game with a competitive Kings’ team. He’s experienced a renaissance year thus far, averaging 18.6 points, 4.6 assists and 3.4 rebounds per game primarily as in a reserve role. With Teague out, Rose sees his usage rate spike to a team-high 31.5% and averaged 1.15 fantasy points per minute. He’s a core cash play tonight.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9.6k FD / $8.9k DK) surprisingly had a down game against the Lakers after posting 23 fantasy points in the first quarter, but finds himself in another smash spot tonight.
The Kings surrender the 3rd most points per game in the paint (54.0) on the season and have been brutalized by Towns over the last year and a half. In his last 5 games against Sacramento, he’s averaged 28 points, 13.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists and 1.2 steals per game. That track record and the Kings’ interior struggles make him one of the top centers on the slate.
Both Andrew Wiggins ($6.7k FD / $6.2k) and Taj Gibson ($5.3k FD / $4.9k DK) have been outperforming salary-based expectations with relative consistency lately and see minutes in the mid to high-30s. In a game that I actually expect to be close, both are great plays with high floors for cash games.
The question here is whether or not Jimmy Butler ($9.5k FD / $8.6k DK) plays or not. If he suits up, he immediately becomes one of the top point-per-dollar plays on DraftKings, as the Kings rank in the bottom half of the league in fantasy points per game allowed to SGs (41.57) and his ability to stuff a box score night in and night out. If he SITS, all of the players mentioned above receive massive upgrades and making at least 3 of the 4 core plays.
Kings Team Ranks:
Pace: 2nd (109.0 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 9th (108.6 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 21st (108.2 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Kings have been one of the early surprises of the 2018-19 campaign, ranking top 10 in offensive efficiency and top 3 in pace on the season. This also makes for a very fantasy-friendly game script.
De’Aaron Fox ($7.5k FD / $6.9k DK) has been the motor of this offense, averaging 18.7 points, 7.3 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 1.2 steals per contest. He’s been taking roughly 13 shots per game, taking control of the offense and shooting 50% from the field.
While Tyus Jones is an elite defender, I expect Derrick Rose to command the PG minutes for the Wolves. Rose ranked 77th out of 82 qualified PGs in defensive real plus/minus last season. Fox is a great play on DraftKings and an elite GPP play on FanDuel.
Young center Willie Cauley-Stein ($7.3k FD / $6.6k DK) has also had an impressive season, averaging roughly 16 points and 9 rebounds per game.
He’s struggled a bit against Minnesota, averaging only 13 points and 6 rebounds per game, but the Wolves have allowed 55.06 FanDuel points per game to opposing centers this season while allowing 25.96 raw points per game to them. Like Fox, he’s more of a GPP play but he could be a low-owned gem if he hits his stride.
With Bogdan Bogdanovic ($4.0k FD / $4.4k DK) back from offseason knee surgery, he saw 18 minutes last game and was eased back in a bit quicker than I expected him to be. While his minutes will still likely be limited, $4k on FanDuel is far too cheap for a player of his caliber, especially assuming that Buddy Hield ($7.4k FD / $6.7k DK) starts and sees Jimmy Butler defense.
Nemanja Bjelica ($6.5k FD / $5,7k DK) is the final player on the Kings that catches my eyes. He’s held off Marvin Bagley for the starting PF job and has topped 28 FanDuel points in 5 of his last 7 games with 3 of them going for over 40.
His minutes have decreased over his last two games (he also only shot 2-13 in that stretch), but in a game against his former team, I’m willing to hop on the revenge narrative train on DraftKings for a reasonable price in a bounce-back spot against a team that struggles mightily against stretch 4s.
Secondary Game Stack: Washington Wizards @ Orlando Magic
Wizards Team Ranks:
Pace: 8th (106.2 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 21st (103.5 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 27th (111.5 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Wizards have been playing awful basketball this season, there’s no lighter way to put it. Frankly, this is not a game that I expect many people to target, but I see a ton of fantasy potential.
With such a tight spread and two horrible defensive teams, we could see a ton of easy buckets. John Wall ($9.9k FD / $9.1k DK) seems to want to start taking the winning into his own hands. Over his last two games, he’s averaged 25 points, 8.5 assists, 3 rebounds and 4 steals per game for a shade under 52 fantasy points per game.
DJ Augustin is not a player that should be feared defensively, making this an exploitable matchup for Wall. Priced at under $10k on both sites on a slate with a lack of enticing studs, he’s one of my top plays of the slate.
Piggy-backing Wall is his partner in crime Bradley Beal ($8.5k FD / $7.8k DK). While he’s typically more scoring dependent, Beal has recorded 6 blocks over his last two games and has grabbed at least 6 rebounds in 3 of his last 5.
The Magic rank in the bottom third of the league against SGs in terms of fantasy production, as they allow 41.99 FanDuel points per game to the position. I don’t have much interest on FanDuel, but his salary makes for a reasonable play on DraftKings.
Otto Porter ($6.6k FD / $5.2k DK) finally had his breakthrough game last game, posting 19 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 blocks and 2 steals in 37 minutes. It was the third time in his last 4 games seeing at least 30 minutes after receiving 30 minutes in only 2 of his first 5 games.
While the Magic are relatively stingy against the SF position, his $5.2k price tag on DraftKings makes him a super solid cash game play.
Dwight Howard ($6.9k FD / $6.0k DK) has had an up-and-down season for the Wizards, playing only three games after returning from an injury. He posted 20 points in his first game but only grabbed 3 rebounds.
He recovered with 21 rebounds over his last two games but only has 18 points in that span. If he can build on the increase in minutes over the last three (23-30-32), he should be able to improve play in a revenge spot in his return to Orlando.
Magic Team Ranks:
Pace: 20th (102.1 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 29th (98.9 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 19th (107.8 points allowed per 100 possessions)
If I were to tell you that the Magic were becoming a rather consistent source of fantasy production, you would call me crazy. Well, they are.
Aaron Gordon ($7.9k FD / $7.5k DK) has been the epitome of a point-per-minute machine lately, as he’s averaged 1.16 over his last three games. He posted a season-high 6 assists last game to add on to his 15-point, 10-rebound double double in 28 minutes against a tough frontcourt in Blake Griffin and Andre Drummond.
He should have a much easier time against the Wizards’ Markieff Morris tonight, as they rank in the bottom third of the league in FanDuel points allowed per game to PF with 49.82. He should come at virtually no ownership tonight, making him a great GPP play and also a nice leverage play in cash games.
The addition of Dwight Howard makes me a bit more hesitant to recommend Nikola Vucevic ($8.6k FD / $8.1k DK), but his production has been great this season despite shooting under 50% from the field over his last 5 games.
In that span, he’s shot 18.5% from three and 47.1% overall. On the season, however, he is still shooting 53% from the field and 45% from beyond the arc, indicating that he should be able to snap out of this slump.
While rebounds may be harder to come by against Howard, he should be able to maximize his perimeter game against a lackluster perimeter defender. He’s my top GPP center of the slate.
Evan Fournier ($6.9k FD / $6.4k DK) has been nothing short of consistent as of late, posting 33.6, 33.7, 33.7 and 45.5 FanDuel points over his last four games.
He’s seen 30+ minutes in three straight games and while his 12 steals over the last 4 games is rather unsustainable, he’s more than making up for it on the offensive end. He’s a better point-per-dollar play on DraftKings tonight, but makes for a fine mid-tier option across the board.
Finally, one of the best value plays on the slate tonight is D.J. Augustin ($4.8k FD / $4.5k DK). He’s topped 30 fantasy points in 2 of his last 3 games and has also seen 30+ minutes in 2 of those 3. He’s averaged 6 assists over that span while also posting 16+ points in 2 of the 3.
He’s a high usage player for his price and should have ample steal/block opportunity against John Wall tonight.
Top Value Stack
Miami Heat
Pace: 10th (104.8 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 17th (104.5 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 14th (104.8 points allowed per 100 possessions)
This value stack is rather contingent on the status of Goran Dragic, who missed last game with an ankle injury. Should he sit, we can go back to the well with Tyler Johnson ($4.7k FD / $4.3k DK), Rodney McGruder ($4.9k FD / $6.0k DK), and Justice Winslow ($5.6k FD / $5.6k DK). Winslow has joined the starting lineup recently and has been contributing in every category of the box score.
Over his last 3 games, he’s averaged 13.3 points, 7 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.7 steals in 34 minutes per game. It’s hard to find minutes like that at his price, so I recommend taking advantage.
Dwyane Wade has already been ruled out with the birth of his daughter, making Rodney McGruder one of my favorite plays on the entire slate. He’s slowed down after his scorching start to the season, but has still seen at least 31 minutes in every game this season.
He shot 2-9 last game but made up for the poor offensive performance by securing 10 rebounds. If he can bounce back from the field, he’s a sure-fire bet to crush value.
Johnson has also been a great play sans Dragic, as he’s posted at least 22.9 FDP in 4 of his last 5 while topping 30 minutes for the first time this season last game. If Dragic sits again, he should be looking at another hefty minutes allotment with Wade out as well.
Next. NBA FanDuel November 9th. dark