College Football picks against the spread November 10, 2018

It’s that time of week again! Time for a big college football Saturday with 55 games here. We had six prior to Saturday, which means that we had 61 total games this week for the second straight week.

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This is my favorite time of the week. The time when I get to really dive into the spread for the most accurate readings. You know you really love something when you would do it even if no one read it. Back when I first started this on a previous site, I had maybe ten views per week. I still put just as much time and effort into it.

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! A solid week leaves me back at .500 on the season at 267-267. I did gain 14 betting points leaving me at -24 on the season, and 7 points in the black overall.

As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 11!

TCU at (9)West Virginia(-13.5)(2):

I would put more on this, but I kind of think this stays close. TCU really hasn’t done anything to uphold my feeling lately, but I still can’t shake it, so I’m lowering the bet. I’m still not going against WVU at home though.

(10)Ohio State(-3.5) at (18)Michigan State(5):

This is just bogus. I highlighted this in the pick em article. Michigan State doesn’t have the offensive power to push Ohio State like Nebraska did. The Buckeye offense is going to struggle, but I still think they win by double digits.

Navy at Central Florida(-25.5)(2):

UCF wins big, but not this big. Give me Navy.

South Carolina at (15)Florida(-6.5)(1):

The only thing that I’m trying to decide here is if I trust South Carolina or Florida less. The line went up, and I’m not sure I understand why. However, I don’t really like either side of this. Give me Florida, I guess.

Wisconsin at (20)Penn State(-7.5)(4):

That half clinches this. I liked Wisconsin anyway, maybe even straight up. There is no way that Penn State wins this by two scores. Give me the Badgers.

Akron at Eastern Michigan(-13.5)(2):

Akron has not looked great lately, but this is a lot of points. Give me Eastern Michigan, but I don’t have a ton of confidence in it.

Tulsa at Memphis(-15.5)(3):

You know, Tulsa is hanging around teams and playing well right now. That Memphis defense has given up a ton of points lately, and with the way Tulsa is playing, I’m quite sure that Tulsa is going to keep this in single digits.

SMU(-17.5) at Connecticut(5):

Yeah, whatever. When I said UConn was a free space, I meant it. SMU by like 30.

Kansas at Kansas State(-12.5)(3):

This is a rivalry game, and it is ALWAYS close. Even when Kansas has been far down in recent years, they have managed to keep it close most years. This is too many. K-State wins, but not by double digits.

BYU(-13.5) at Massachusetts(4):

This looks low. BYU’s offense has looked much better lately under the new quarterback. I’ll take the Cougars, though UMass will hang around for longer than many think.

Vanderbilt at Missouri(-14.5)(2):

Wow, Mizzou beating Florida really jacked this line up. Maybe too far. I’ll go with Vanderbilt.

Mississippi at Texas A&M(-12.5)(2):

This looks a little high, but Ole Miss is really struggling lately. I have to take the Aggies in College Station.

Illinois at Nebraska(-17.5)(3):

I don’t really care for the half, but I’m pretty sure that Illinois was a fluke last week. I’m also pretty sure that Nebraska wasn’t. Give me the Cornhuskers.

Maryland at Indiana(-3.5)(1):

Yeah, after last week’s mess, I’m pretty sure I like the Turtles straight up. Give me Maryland.

North Carolina at Duke(-10.5)(1):

I really don’t trust a double digit spread in a rivalry game. Especially when the teams don’t really look all that far apart. I’ll take the Tarheels.

Troy at Georgia Southern(EVEN)(2):

I only have one on this in Pick Em for a reason. I do expect a close game here, but I still think Troy is the class of the Sun Belt. I’ll take the Trojans.

UCLA at Arizona State(-12.5)(2):

This game screams letdown. I don’t know if UCLA has the offense to hang around for as bad as their defense is, but I still don’t trust it. I’m taking Sparky, but lowering the bet.

Charlotte at Marshall(-14.5)(3):

This is too many. Charlotte isn’t losing to anyone by this anymore. That game against the Vols will really help the confidence. I wouldn’t be all that shocked if Charlotte wins outright.

Liberty at Virginia(-23.5)(1):

This looks like too many, but Liberty has not played well lately. They may not score in this game, so give me the Hoos.

Bowling Green at Central Michigan(-7.5)(3):

The line opened at -10, and I still would have taken the Chips there. I’m not sure why this is falling. CMU by double digits.

Middle Tennessee State(-14.5) at UTEP(4):

I’m still giving the half here because I’m pretty confident that this line is out of whack. MTSU by at least 20, and maybe double that.

(16)Mississippi State at (1)Alabama(-26.5)(2):

Don’t look for a letdown here because you aren’t going to find it. Roll Tide!

(4)Michigan(-38.5) at Rutgers(1):

Wow, that’s a ton of points. Rutgers may not score, but Michigan probably lets off before they hit 40. They have to think about getting some rest for some big games coming up. Rutgers, I guess, but with no confidence in it.

Oklahoma State at (6)Oklahoma(-21.5)(4):

Oklahoma is going to win this game, but I’m pretty sure it’s going to be a lot closer than that! Give me the Pokes. UPDATE: this line is way too far up. I’m putting four on this now.

Washington State(-4.5) at Colorado(5):

This looks really low. That Colorado defense isn’t going to be able to slow down Wazzu all that much. If Shenault is back, Colorado may hang around for a while, but the Cougars still win by double digits.

Kentucky(-3.5) at Tennessee(4):

Yeah, this is quite a ways too low. Benny Snell could wind up with 150 yards by halftime. Kentucky may not blow out Tennessee, but that is far more likely than the Wildcats winning by just a field goal. Give me Kentucky.

Northwestern at (21)Iowa(-10.5)(3):

Too many. Iowa wins, but only by one score.

Baylor at (22)Iowa State(-14.5)(2):

I really don’t like that half. I’ll take the Cyclones, but am lowering the bet.

North Texas(-14.5) at Old Dominion(1):

Two teams that have made a living of letting me down over the last month, and a tough half to boot. I wouldn’t bet this if you paid me to, but since I have to pick, I’ll go North Texas.

New Mexico at Air Force(-13.5)(3):

Let’s see…..what was more of a fluke last week: New Mexico hanging with a team they had no business hanging with or Air Force hanging with Army. Definitely New Mexico. Give me Air Force.

Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh(-2.5)(4):

Pitt isn’t getting enough credit for beating a pretty good Virginia team. I’ll take the Panthers for this little points. Anything under a touchdown should be money for Pitt.

Purdue(-12.5) at Minnesota(3):

Minnesota is far too young and beat up to hang around, even at home. I’ll take the Boilers.

San Jose State at Utah State(-30.5)(3):

That is a load of points, but I’m not betting against that Aggie offense right now. Not until they face a team that can somewhat run with them. This isn’t it. Give me Utah State.

East Carolina at Tulane(-13.5)(2):

Tulane’s defense is playing well right now, but this does look a touch high. Give me the Pirates.

Appalachian State(-21.5) at Texas State(3):

The Bobcats pulled one out of their arse last week. Don’t count on it happening again. Give me the Mountaineers.

Georgia State at Louisiana(-13.5)(1):

This looks a little bit high with the way that the Panthers have played lately. I’ll take Georgia State.

Louisiana-Monroe(-5.5) at South Alabama(1):

The Warhawks have played well lately, but USA is usually money at home. I’m torn here. Coin flip time! Tails means road team, so give me the Warhawks.

Arkansas State(-6.5) at Coastal Carolina(3):

This looks low to me. Arkansas State has some good players on that offense that I don’t know the Chanticleers can stop. Give me the Red Wolves.

Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic(-17.5)(2):

This line is high, but it is definitely warranted. The WKU offense looks like the Dallas Cowboys right now. Give me FAU.

Oregon at Utah(-3.5)(5):

Tyler Huntley out means Utah has no chance. Oregon straight up. This is the closest thing to a lock I have for you this week.

(24)Auburn at (5)Georgia(-14.5)(4):

This looks low. If Florida couldn’t hang with Georgia, I’m pretty sure Auburn can’t either. Give me the Bulldogs.

Miami(FL) at Georgia Tech(-2.5)(5):

How long has it been since Miami was a dog in a game like this? It’s been a long time. Things aren’t getting better for the Hurricants anytime soon. Give me the Bees. UPDATE: this line is down under three. Raising the bet to 5!

Florida International(-10.5) at UTSA(2):

The Panthers just got blasted at home by their rivals, and the Alamodome is not an easy place to play. UTSA may win this outright. I’ll take the Roadrunners.

Rice at Louisiana Tech(-24.5)(2):

I don’t like the half, but I like the Owls far less. Give me the Bulldogs.

Temple at Houston(-3.5)(2):

This is a tough one being in Houston, but I kind of think Temple wins this outright. I’ll take this set of Owls since I picked against the last ones.

South Florida at Cincinnati(-11.5)(4):

How much does my ten point confidence pick in Pick Em get against the spread? A hell of a lot more than 12! Give me Cincinnati.

Florida State at (3)Notre Dame(-17.5)(2):

I really don’t care if Book plays or not. The Seminoles can’t hang with anyone right now. I’ll take the Irish.

(7)LSU(-12.5) at Arkansas(2):

You know, Arkansas has played like hog dung most of the season, but they always show up for LSU, no matter what state the program is in. The Piggies wont win, but they will make LSU sweat this. Give me Arkansas.

(19)Texas(-1.5) at Texas Tech(2):

I expect a wild and crazy one here as well, but I don’t know if Texas Tech can win this one without Alan Bowman. Their run defense is strong enough, and I’m not sure Jett Duffey can throw to win. That said, the Red Raiders have enough other arms behind him to do so, and Kingsbury isn’t afraid to use them. Give me Texas Tech at home!

Southern Mississippi at UAB(-11.5)(3):

If you think I’m going against the Blazers right now, you’re crazy. This train keeps rolling!

(2)Clemson(-17.5) at (17)Boston College(2):

With the way Clemson is playing, no one in the ACC can hang with them. Probably not even Boston College at home. Give me the Tigers.

Oregon State at Stanford(-22.5)(2):

Come on. Stanford isn’t covering anyone by this much. Give me Oregon State.

California at USC(-5.5)(2):

I’m pretty sure that the Trojans have no right being favored here. I like Cal straight up.

UNLV at San Diego State(-18.5)(1):

SDSU has been so bad about covering that I actually considering taking UNLV…….for about three seconds. Give me the Aztecs. They can’t fail me forever.

Colorado State at Nevada(-12.5)(3):

This looks low. Colorado State is a wreck and is getting no better. Nevada could double this line!

We have another one of the largest slate of the year with 61 FBS vs. FBS games. A good week last week may have boosted my confidence. I only had 9 one pointers, but still 22 two pointers, 16 three pointers is a touch down from last week, but I make up for it with nine four point bets and five more five pointers. Let’s make some money!