Alabama can’t beat an NFL team, but how many teams could they cover a hypothetical spread?
It seems to happen every year with the debate about whether Alabama could beat the worst NFL team. Last week, it came up again when there was a 28.5-point spread for a mythical Alabama vs. Buffalo Bills game. Sure, it’s a fun debate to discuss among friends and Twitter friends alike, but let’s be clear, there is zero chance the best college team ever could beat the worst NFL team. Alabama would have lost to the winless Cleveland Browns last year and they’d lose to the Bills this year, regardless of Nathan Peterman, Matt Barkley or Josh Allen under center.
There’s even less of a chance of Alabama and an NFL team ever sharing the field because they’d have to be compensated and it’s just too complicated to make happen. Forget about the injury concerns and the logistics of it all. It’s just not happening. But having said that, we like to have fun and we like to inspire debate and engage in conversation. So forget about beating an NFL team, could Alabama cover a mythical spread vs. any of the 32 NFL teams?
Westgate bookmaker Jeff Sherman came up with hypothetical point spreads for Alabama vs. every NFL team as seen on The Action Network. Key notes are the spreads are based on playing on a neutral field under NFL rules and a general assumption that the NFL teams would take the foot off the gas after a big first half. This is gonna be fun. I’m going to go through every spread and declare whether Alabama would cover the spread or not.
How many NFL teams could Alabama cover the spread?
Bills favored by 28.5 – Doesn’t cover
The Bills just scored 41 points with Matt Barkley under center so imagine what they’d do against a defense that allowed 31 points to Arkansas.
Cardinals favored by 30.5 – Doesn’t cover
This would be a game with a heavy dose of David Johnson pounding the rock against Alabama’s front and getting him in space in the passing game.
Raiders favored by 31.5 – Doesn’t cover
I had to give this some serious pause. The Raiders are really bad after selling off Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper, leaving David Carr with no help and no defense. Still, I’d take the Raiders to cover the spread.
Jets favored by 34.5 – Doesn’t cover
Put out Sam Darnold or Josh McCown, it doesn’t matter. Alabama wouldn’t be able to score enough against the Jets defense to cover the spread.
Browns favored by 35.5 – Doesn’t cover
If the winless Browns under Hue Jackson would have no problem with Alabama, I don’t think the Browns with Baker Mayfield and an upgraded roster would struggle. How would Alabama cover Jarvis Landry? How would they stop Nick Chubb behind an NFL offensive line when they couldn’t stop him behind a college line last year? That’s why they’d cover the spread.
Giants favored by 35.5 – Doesn’t cover
Everyone wants to rag on Eli Manning, but he’s got a pair of rings and can still throw the ball when he gets solid protection. I think the line would give him a chance to do that and fire deep balls to Odell Beckham Jr. all game and there’s no answer for Saquon Barkley.
49ers favored by 35.5 – Doesn’t cover
Okay, this is interesting if Nick Mullens is the starter. I don’t think the 49ers are very good and this could be a game that looks pretty ugly compared to the other hypothetical matchups. Still, everyone on the 49ers is a pro and I think George Kittle could have around 15 catches for 175 yards and a few touchdowns in this contest.
Dolphins favored by 36.5 – Doesn’t cover
If Brock Osweiler is under center, I’d give serious thought to taking the points in this contest. If Ryan Tannehill is quarterbacking the team, I don’t think there’s any doubt that they would cover the spread. Adam Gase would have a great game plan with Kenyan Drake and Frank Gore gashing the Alabama defense. Plus, there’s gotta be some payback for the way Nick Saban left the Dolphins after only two years to take the Alabama job. They’d run up the score.
Buccaneers favored by 37.5 – Doesn’t cover
This would be a defense that allows Tua Tagovailoa and his young receivers to score some points. The Bucs secondary is brutal, but the Bucs offense, albeit dysfunctional at times this year, is loaded with playmakers. How is Alabama going to cover Mike Evans, DeSean Jackson, Chris Godwin and former Alabama tight end, O.J. Howard? They can’t.
Colts favored by 39.5 – Doesn’t cover
The spreads are getting larger and we’re still not even to the playoff-caliber NFL teams yet. That’s a sign just how big of a gap we’re talking here. Alabama wouldn’t be able to generate a pass rush against the Colts improved offensive line that hasn’t allowed a sack in a month. This would be a game the Colts run the ball down their throat for four quarters.
Broncos favored by 39.5 – Doesn’t cover
For a split second, I was tempted to take the points. The Broncos traded away their top receiver, Demaryius Thomas, but still, the offense has Philip Lindsay and an underused Royce Freeman to control the ground game. They still have Emmanuel Sanders to serve as an all-around threat on the perimeter. But the biggest reason I’m laying the points is Von Miller would have like 10 sacks and not give Tagovailoa a chance to throw.
Lions favored by 39.5 – Doesn’t cover
Matthew Stafford is known for his fourth-quarter comebacks with the Lions, but he wouldn’t need to lead one here as the Lions would race out to a massive lead in the first half. Even without Golden Tate, the Lions have too many weapons, especially Kenny Golladay, and emerging running back Kerryon Johnson who ran for 104 yards and a touchdown in his last game vs. Alabama while at Auburn.
Titans favored by 40.5 – Doesn’t cover
We’re into the 40-plus point range now. The Titans are coming off a big win over the Patriots when Marcus Mariota played one of his finest games as a pro. Between Dion Lewis and former Alabama Heisman winner, Derrick Henry, the two would run over and around the Alabama defense. Emerging wide receiver Cory Davis would be too tough to slow that the Crimson Tide would need to dedicate at least three defenders to shadow him every play.
Jaguars favored by 40.5 – Doesn’t cover
I think Alabama could get a couple Blake Bortles interceptions in this game. But, I don’t think they’d need to force him to throw too often. I know Leonard Fournette couldn’t find any running room against Alabama when he was at LSU, but considering he has full-grown adults blocking for him now against college kids, I think the room for him to run would be vast. Jacksonville’s defense has had issues this year, but good luck trying to get open against Jalen Ramsey or protect long enough with Calais Campbell and Yannick Ngakkoue.
Redskins favored by 40.5 – Doesn’t cover
Can you imagine Adrian Peterson running against a bunch of 19-22-year-olds? Goodness, it would be a massacre with Peterson running for like 400 yards. I don’t think Alex Smith would light up the scoreboard in the passing game, but he’s got an array of weapons, especially if Jamison Crowder is healthy, to spread the field and keep the Alabama defense honest. Nevertheless, this would be a win for the team in the nation’s capital.
Cowboys favored by 41.5 – Doesn’t cover
Alabama couldn’t stop Ezekiel Elliott a couple of years ago in the College Football Playoff and they definitely wouldn’t be able to stop them with Tyron Smith and Zack Martin blocking for him. Dak Prescott played Alabama tough when he was at Mississippi State so he won’t be daunted by a Saban defense. The Cowboys defense is getting better with Leighton Vander Esch and Jaylon Smith having really good seasons at linebacker.
Bears favored by 41.5 – Doesn’t cover
Mitchell Trubisky is putting up big numbers and getting better every week. Allen Robinson and Khalil Mack are back from their injuries and the Bears have a real good shot at a playoff spot. Alabama might be able to slow the Jordan Howard-led run game to a degree, but there’s no chance they’d keep the Bears under 55 in this game.
Falcons favored by 41.5 – Doesn’t cover
Matt Ryan is having a really good year and former Alabama receivers Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are two big reasons why. Even with Devonta Freeman out, the play of Tevin Coleman has helped make up for his loss. The defense hasn’t been as great as it can be, but I think they’d be able to keep Alabama under 14 points.
Seahawks favored by 41.5 – Doesn’t cover
The Seahawks just went head-to-head with the Rams, who might be the best team in the NFL. If they can almost beat the best NFL team, surely, they can boat race Alabama on a neutral field without the 12’s cheering them on.
Bengals favored by 42.5 – Alabama covers
I think this game would see Andy Dalton throwing to A.J. Green at every opportunity and there’s no one on Alabama who can stop him. They’d have to commit pass interference penalties all day to keep him from catching the ball. If they go away from that, they can run Joe Mixon 25 times and watch him churn up big chunks of yardage. But, with the Bengals having an aversion to defense and just firing coordinator Teryl Austin, I think Alabama can find a way to score 10-17 and cover the spread.
Texans favored by 42.5 – Doesn’t cover
It would be fun to see Deshaun Watson against Alabama again, wouldn’t it? Alabama couldn’t stop Watson when he had college receivers and linemen playing with him, so there’s no chance they could stop him with an NFL line and DeAndre Hopkins
Packers favored by 43.5 – Doesn’t cover
Aaron Rodgers is still the Packers quarterback so good luck slowing that train.
Ravens favored by 43.5 – Alabama covers
I don’t know if Alabama could score against the Ravens defense. The Ravens offense might not scare Alabama but I don’t think they have the explosive offense that could rack up points in a hurry to cover such a large spread. I think the Ravens would win by a score like 49-6, but that’s not good enough to cover.
Eagles favored by 44.5 – Doesn’t cover
The reigning Super Bowl champs might struggle to get back to the playoffs, but they wouldn’t struggle to score points against Alabama. Carson Wentz would hook up with Alshon Jeffery, Zach Ertz, Golden Tate and Nelson Agholor early and often. Further, the ground game, while a sore spot this year, they’d be able to provide enough of a balance to keep the Tide off-balance all game.
Vikings favored by 44.5 – Doesn’t cover
The Vikings were considered one of the leading contenders to make the Super Bowl this year. After a bit of a bumpy start, the Vikings are rounding into form and Kirk Cousins, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are a dangerous aerial assault for the Tide to defend against and with Dalvin Cook finally getting healthy, this team is too dangerous to stop offensively. I think the Vikings would score 60-plus points against Alabama. The Vikings defense is great on all three levels and this one could get ugly.
Panthers favored by 44.5 – Doesn’t cover
Alabama doesn’t have fond memories of Cam Newton and they wouldn’t get any better if this mythical matchup took place. Newton is having an MVP-caliber season and Christian McCaffrey could run for 150 and catch for 150 in this game. Plus, how is anyone going to block Luke Kuechly in this game? They can’t.
Chargers favored by 45.5 – Doesn’t cover
Quietly, the Chargers are playing like a team that could make some noise in the playoffs. Philip Rivers continues to get it done and Melvin Gordon is developing into one of the best backs in the league. The defense might yield a score since they don’t have Joey Bosa, but I think this is a 50-point win for the Chargers.
Steelers favored by 47.5 – Doesn’t cover
With or without Le’Veon Bell, I like the Steelers to cover this spread. Ben Roethlisberger is coming off a five-touchdown performance vs. the Panthers so what do you think he’d do against a bunch of college kids? He’d probably have five touchdowns by the end of the opening quarter. And forget about anyone on Alabama being able to take down James Conner who has played admirably in the place of the absent Bell.
Chiefs favored by 49.5 – Doesn’t cover
I think the Chiefs would have this covered by halftime. Patrick Mahomes would just need to throw the ball 70 yards downfield and let Tyreek Hill to run underneath it. Rinse and repeat and the Chiefs win by 70-plus. The Chiefs don’t have a defense, so Alabama could score on the Chiefs, but nowhere as much as they’d need to cover a near-50-point spread.
Saints favored by 49.5 – Doesn’t cover
Much like the Chiefs, I think the Saints would hang half-a-hundred on Alabama before the break. There’s just too many weapons for them to defend against. In college, you might have a great quarterback or a great running back or a great quarterback and receiver, but with the Saints, they have all of that and more. Drew Brees and Michael Thomas would be able to do whatever they wanted in this game and former Alabama backs, Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara, would average a first down for every touch. I think the Saints could score 100.
Rams favored by 49.5 – Doesn’t cover
The Rams could give Todd Gurley the ball 25-30 times and that should be enough to cover the spread. The Rams offensive line would overpower the Crimson Tide and Gurley would have one long run after another. It would be so unfair, but the Rams also have Jared Goff, Brandin Cooks and Robert Woods to deploy in a game they’d score into the 70s with ease. The defense would likely get in on the scoring too because Aaron Donald, Ndamukong Suh, Michael Brockers and Dante Fowler, Jr. would have a field day and the Alabama offensive line would stand zero chance of giving Tagovailoa any time to get a throw off.
New England favored by 51.5 – Doesn’t cover
Puh-lease. This would only be worth watching to see the handshake between Saban and his one-time mentor Bill Belichick after he and the Pats hang 100 on the overmatched group of college kids.
Final Verdict: 2-30 vs. the spread. I don’t know what it says for the state of the AFC North that the two teams I think they’d cover are the Bengals and the Ravens, but what’s clear is no matter how dominant Alabama is in college football, they’d be humbled as soon as they set foot on an NFL field.
What do you think about this hypothetical exercise? Do you think Alabama could cover the spread against more than the two I picked? Do you think they could win any of these outright? Sound off in the comments and let us know how many NFL teams you think Alabama could cover the spread against.