NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Monday November 12
Welcome to the Monday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!
For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.
Nothing welcomes you back to NBA DFS quite like Sunday’s slate where I loaded up on Tim Hardaway Jr. and the Knicks only to see them get their doors blown off at home against the Knicks. THJ never fails! Looking back the slate was largely low scoring with the exception of James Harden who dropped 65+ fantasy points as the clear top play and at only $17K on FantasyDraft, was able to do it at a relative discount to what we would normally be paying for The Beard.
Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.
As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.
Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!
NBA DFS – Injuries To Impact the Slate:
With a big eight game NBA DFS slate to start off the week, we have a ton of injury news which will open up a ton of usage and value on tonight’s slate.
Russell Westbrook has already been ruled out for tonight’s game with Phoenix which means another night for Paul George and Dennis Schroder to run the show in OKC. PG13 is averaging nearly 47 fantasy points in the three previous games that Westbrook has missed but would need 50+ to pay off his $17.8K price tag while Schroder would need well over 40 fantasy points to pay off his 13.7K price tag which may be asking too much considering he has failed to reach that mark in the last three games Russ has missed.
The Warriors will once again be without Steph Curry tonight which means Quinn Cook ($9.6K), fresh off his 40+ fantasy point outing should get another crack at the starting PG role for the Dubs. The price point is still low enough that there is profit potential to be had here but the match-up with the Clippers is much tougher than the one he just faced against Brooklyn. Keep an eye on the status of Draymond Green as well, who is officially questionable which could mean another start for Jordan Bell ($7.4K) or Jonas Jerebko ($6.2K).
Much like is the case with OKC, when Curry is off the floor, the usage really find its way to two key pieces in Kevin Durant ($19.5K) and Klay Thompson (12.9K). This GS-Clippers game really interests me the more I look at the Vegas data as even with Curry out, this is still projected to be one of the fastest paced games on the slate and we have a pretty set core to build around in this game environment. Against the Nets on Saturday, KD had a 33% usage rate with 1.85 FP/M while Klay led the team with a 38.8% usage rate and had 1.2 FP/M of output himself. This duo combined with Quinn Cook (28% usage rate and 1.4 FP/M) makes for an interesting three-man stack here again tonight with Curry out of the picture.
Speaking of tight core rotations, if you are going to run out three Warriors tonight – then I think running it back with a few Clippers makes the most sense given this game has a high total and tight spread. Looking back at their previous game with the Bucks, you can see the Clippers ran 6 players 30 or more minutes while no other players topped 20 minutes – meaning we have an obvious core to build around.
Any time I start with the Clippers, I am going to look at Lou Williams ($11.8K) who leads the team in usage this season at 32.4% and now has back-to-back games of 30+ minutes. The volume of shot attempts continues to be off the charts for Lou Will with nearly 18 FGA per game over his last five outings and if he is going to get that kind of volume and minutes at this price – I am simply locking him in. Remember – this is a guy who went for 50 real life points against the Dubs last year in Golden State – that is the kind of upside you are looking at here.
The best part about the Clippers is this becomes a team that is relatively easy to stack with KD/Klay because the price points remain super reasonable. Tobias Harris ($13.5K) is the priciest option, while fellow front court mates Danilo Gallinari and Montrezl Harrell both remain under $12K and the back-court duo of Patrick Beverley and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will only cost you roughly $8K per player.
If the Clippers are going to continue to run this 5-6 man core at 30+ minutes a night, it is tough to over-look the point per dollar upside they possess and their price points remain low enough that you can easily stack them with a Durant/Klay/Cook trio and go hard after the late night hammer.
NBA DFS – Butler to Philly and Monday Night Value:
With Jimmy Butler finally out of Minnesota and on his way to Philadelphia for a package including Dario Saric and Robert Covington – we could find value in both Minnesota and Philadelphia tonight with both teams looking short-handed.
Philly played on Saturday without Saric/Covington and we saw some value pieces get some serious run for the Sixers as a result. Landry Shamet ($6.6K) got the start alongside JJ Redick and ended up playing 42 minutes for the Sixers and a OT game against Memphis, shooting the ball thirteen times with a whopping ELEVEN three-point attempts. Now, he only made one – but if you are going to guarantee me these kind of minutes and anywhere near that shot volume for just $600 over the minimum price on FantasyDraft, it is tough to ignore the upside. T.J. McConnell ($7.1K) played 34 minutes off the bench and as usual, showed his massive upside when given court time as he racked up 33 FPTS in 34 minutes on the back of 16 points, 7 assists and 3 rebounds.
UPDATE – The Sixers have announced that Redick will start alongside Wilson Chandler tonight. Chandler will be limited to around 20 minutes which certainly takes him out of our player pool but it also limits the minutes upside for the fringe pieces on Philadelphia who saw the uptick in run on Saturday.
The Minnesota side of this trade is really where I am focused though tonight with Butler out-of-town, Jeff Teague already ruled out and Andrew Wiggins marked as questionable after missing Friday Night’s game against the Kings. So let’s see – no Butler, Teague and possibly no Wiggins and we get a match-up against the Nets – lock button on a certain Karl-Anthony Towns ($16.2K) who feels entirely too cheap considering the Nets give up the most FPTS to opposing Centers this year and will soak up all the usage!
Derrick Rose ($13.6K) is the clear second play here on Minnesota but the price is getting to where I think we should jump off – I get the added usage and his insane level of production but you are going to need 40+ FPTS to pay off this salary and he has only done that three times all year.
The “Centers against Brooklyn” thing is going to make KAT a popular play but do not overlook the fact that Towns is one of the worst defensive centers in the NBA, ranking 46th of 56 Centers in DRPM last season. Jarrett Allen ($10K) is going to be on the court a ton against KAT tonight and this is a player who just went for 32, 35 and 44 fantasy points in his three previous games before a game environment against the Warriors that pushed him off the floor.
NBA DFS – Sample Line-Up and Slate Overview:
Please note – the sample line-up noted here is for illustrative purposes only and is not meant to be an optimized plug and play line-up.
More from FanSided
- Shohei Ohtani Rumors: The best trade package from every NL East team
- Cardinals Rumors: Surprise extension, Dylan Carlson-Yankees link, Rays trade idea
- USWNT vs. Vietnam: Key takeaways before they take on the Dutch
- NFL rumors: 49ers trending toward contract drama with defensive star
- Steelers avoid any camp drama with latest roster move
G: Lou Williams ($11.8K)
G: Klay Thompson ($12.9K)
G: Shai Gilgeous Alexander ($8.3K)
F/C: Kevin Durant ($19.5K)
F/C: Karl-Anthony Towns ($16.2K)
F/C: Jarrett Allen: ($10K)
UTIL: Tobias Harris ($13.5K)
UTIL: Patrick Beverley ($7.8K)
Slate Overview: As I typically do in my first look Picks and Pivots, I attempt to narrow down my player pool to a set of games that I really like and this time is no different. With so many top-tier plays expected to miss tonight’s games there is going to be some serious usage to go around on the Warriors, Thunder and Sixers/Wolves – this is a spot where O think you focus in on the clear beneficiaries and let others get cute. The biggest piece of news I want to watch for is the status of Draymond Green as his defensive presence could push me away from the Clippers front-court if he is active but if he is out – the Clippers remain a strong part of my core alongside the Durant/Klay duo. Good luck tonight all!
dark. Next. NBA DFS GPP Picks - Monday November 12
Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR each and every day for all the latest NBA DFS and Fantasy Basketball news and analysis!