There was no drama for the latest College Football Playoff rankings, but let’s imagine a doomsday scenario where everything that can go wrong, does.
“You wanna get nuts, let’s get nuts.”
That’s the line said by Michael Keaton as Bruce Wayne in Batman during one of his encounters with The Joker, and it’s the inspiration behind this doomsday scenarios story about all the things that can give the College Football Playoff committee a massive headache as they try to sort out the madness.
After the entire Top 10 won their games last weekend, there wasn’t any drama expected for Tuesday night’s unveiling of the latest College Football Playoff rankings.
Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame and Michigan remained in the top four with Georgia and Oklahoma the first two out. Fans have assumed there isn’t much drama left for the final weeks with the exception of a game or two to decide the Big Ten and SEC champions. However, let’s envision all of the scenarios where all the crazy things that can happen to disrupt the status quo do actually happen.
1. Michigan doesn’t win the Big Ten
Michigan is a two-point favorite to beat Ohio State in their regular season finale that’ll decide the Big Ten East champion who plays Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game. The easy scenario for the committee is that the Wolverines beat Ohio State and then Northwestern to punch their ticket to the Playoff.
2. Ohio State wins the Big Ten
It’ll get messy if Ohio State beats Michigan because they would then be among the candidates to fill the fourth spot. It would open up the Pac-12 and Big 12 champion if they have one loss. The Big Ten could be left out if anyone other than Michigan wins the Big Ten. Northwestern winning the Big Ten wouldn’t get them in the Playoff, but it would get them a Rose Bowl berth and shake-up the New Year’s Six bowls. I’d give the Buckeyes a 20-25 percent chance of making the playoff.
3. West Virginia and Oklahoma beat each other
The two are in a first-place tie in the Big 12 and will meet in the season finale. Provided they are still in first place with one loss apiece, they will then meet one week later in the Big 12 Championship Game. The committee will be hoping one of them sweeps both games so they could potentially pluck a one-loss Big 12 champion. The Big 12 might be rooting for that as well because if one wins the season finale but then loses the conference championship game as a two-loss champ, there won’t be a Big 12 team in the playoff.
4. Syracuse beats Notre Dame
The Fighting Irish will get in if they are undefeated. They will put their undefeated record on the line on Saturday afternoon against 8-2 Syracuse who is their toughest remaining opponent. That said, the Irish are still a 10-point favorite. Without a conference championship game to play in, Notre Dame wouldn’t have a game against a great team to make up for that loss in short order. With conference championships a big point of emphasis for the committee, Notre Dame would effectively be eliminated without an unblemished record. I expect there will be a lot of fans of Syracuse this weekend to root against Notre Dame’s playoff chances.
5. How the SEC gets two teams in again
Many have already awarded Alabama the national title, but it’s no sure thing they even win their conference. Then again, Alabama showed last year they don’t need to be SEC champions to be national champions. But if Georgia hands Alabama their first and only loss of the season in the SEC Championship Game and it’s a close game, the SEC will get two teams in. If Alabama loses, I can’t see them dropping from No. 1 to No. 5. In this scenario, Clemson, Notre Dame, Georgia would be in with Michigan and Alabama vying for the last spot. I think the committee would determine Alabama’s a better team than Michigan, leaving the one-loss Big Ten champion out.
6. Washington State keeps winning
Gardner Minshew has been one of the greater success stories this year after transferring from East Carolina to put up big numbers in Mike Leach’s offense. However, the Cougars have virtually no chance to make the playoff. In order for Wazzu to have a chance, they’d need Alabama and Clemson to win out. They’d need Notre Dame to lose, Ohio State to beat Michigan and Oklahoma and West Virginia to beat each other. If all of those things happen, Washington State might sneak into the No. 4 spot if they win out, including registering a blowout win over Washington for some much-needed style points.
7. Clemson loses
I think Clemson losing is the most unlikely thing to happen, even when viewing this through a doomsday scenario lens. It’s more likely Alabama loses to Georgia, Michigan loses to Ohio State, Notre Dame loses to Syracuse or the Big 12 teams beat up on each other more than South Carolina or Pitt beating Clemson. It’s just not going to happen. Well, it’s most likely not going to happen. But if it did, things really get nuts, because it opens up scenarios for Georgia if they beat Alabama, the Big 12 and Pac-12 champs could slide in or a one-loss Notre Dame.
8. Everybody loses and UCF finally gets in
Hey, if you wanna get nuts, we gotta get nuts. UCF came in at No. 11, the highest any Group of Five team has ranked in the playoff history. That might be the only consolation because they could go undefeated for a second straight year and not sniff a playoff berth. Unless that is, everyone in front of them loses, twice.