Fantasy NBA Game by Game Breakdown, Tuesday November 13

It might only be a short three game slate tonight for Fantasy NBA but that doesn’t mean there’s not money to be made and we’re here to break it all down!

Right off the hop, I tend to attack small Fantasy NBA slates like this a little differently. For one, I fail back whatever my normal bet is to a pretty major extent. NBA fantasy has plenty of ups and downs as it is and ownership will be more concentrated than normal. I also don’t really play cash games so I might play the tournament on DraftKings that is a $4 entry and has a three entry max. That way, I can pick a core group of players and sprinkle in others. Let’s get into who you can look at tonight to try to hit big!

Hornets at Cavaliers

Pace Rankings – Hornets at 17th, Cavaliers at 24th

Hornets FPPM Leaders – Kemba Walker, Jermey Lamb, Malik Monk

No matter what size slate we had, we’d be looking at Hornets in this spot. Cleveland is tied for last in defensive rating so far and is bottom 10 in real points allowed. As usual with the Hornets, we have to start with Kemba Walker. He’s sixth in the NBA in touches per game, so the ball is always in his hands. He also backs it up with a usage of 33.9 percent, which has him among the top five in the league. The cherry on top might just be the three-point upside tonight for Walker. He’s attempting 10.7 a game, which is Steph Curry levels. So far, Cleveland is allowing the second highest field goal percentage from 25-29 feet. Walker is also driving to the hoop at a top five rate, which isn’t a great mix for the Cavs giving up the second highest field goal percentage within five feet. Roughly 16 of Walker’s shots a night come from three or within five feet. Walker’s price is enormous but we could get a ceiling game in this one.

Jeremy Lamb and Malik Monk are both interesting options here as well. They both see around 24 minutes a night, play at the shooting guard position against a Cavs defense that is fifth in points allowed to that spot and are sitting between 0.91 and .0.99 FPPM. Monk has the slight lead in usage since he’s not a member of the starting lineup and could be a nice compliment to the core group tonight. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is out for this game so we’ll need to check in during the day to get a lead on where his minutes should go. Over 136 minutes, Monk has been the prime beneficiary with MKG off the floor in usage and FPPM. Tony Parker might not get a ton of minutes but he drives to the basket constantly and 44 of his 108 shots this season have come within eight feet.

Players to Consider – Kemba Walker, Malik Monk, Jeremy Lamb, Tony Parker, Nicholas Batum

Cavs FPPM Leaders(without Cedi Osman) – Jordan Clarkson, Larry Nance, Tristan Thompson

Cedi Osman has already been ruled out with a back issue for this game so we’re looking at what this Cavs offense should be expected to do without him. Not too surprisingly, but Jordan Clarkson is a usage hog without Osman so far this year at 30.8 percent. The FPPM mark isn’t too shabby wither at 1.09 considering Clarkson is more of a shooter. The issue is the minutes aren’t very reliable. He’s been in the 22-26 range for basically the entire year and didn’t see any change this past game with Osman out as well. Tristan Thompson is where I might head from this squad as he’s eclipsed 30 minutes in three straight games. The Hornets also get crushed by centers, giving up the fifth most DK points per game. At his current FPPM pace, Thompson would easily exceed 30 points and has a good matchup to boot. He’s averaging a double double and carries a rebound percentage of just about 18 percent.

Larry Nance is also a fascinating option for this evening. He saw extended run this past game and manage to have a good fantasy game despite going 1-8 from the field and scoring two real life points. I’d be more willing to try to attack a weaker Hornets front court than try to catch Clarkson on extended minutes that haven’t happened yet. If Nance can have a quality fantasy game with that type of shooting, there’s no reason not to go back to him. Collin Sexton also needs to be mentioned with his minutes lately as well. The FPPM without Osman look pedestrian at 0.71 but the 20.4 percent usage rate is intriguing. He’s played 42 and 34 minutes these past two games and the rookie has score 15 and 20 real life points.

Players to Consider – Tristan Thompson, Larry Nance, Colin Sexton, Jordan Clarkson, Rodney Hood, Ante Zizic as a cheap punt

Fantasy NBA – Rockets at Nuggets

Pace Rankings – Rockets at 28th, Nuggets at 25th

Rockets FPPM Leaders – James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela

I’m running the Houston usage without Carmelo Anthony since it appears he will no longer be with the team. Another factor we have to keep an eye on is Clint Capela was forced from the past game with a knee injury. He did come back to that game, but is currently uncertain for this tilt. It does appear he will play because he’s not on the injury report, though things can change fast in the NBA. If he’s out, I’m not 100 percent certain what the Rockets will do. I suppose they’ll go with a smaller lineup and rely on the trio of Harden, CP3 and Eric Gordon but it’s something we’ll have to keep an eye on. Houston has quietly been a bad team this year and we’ve seen some really low prices on Harden and Paul. Harden finally had a monster game Sunday night while scoring 40 real points. Maybe that snaps him out of his funk and it’s still hard to argue with his sky-high usage and FPPM.

It’s hard to explain why Paul has been so poor this season on the face of things. His shots per game, assist ratio and rebounding rate are more or less in line with last season. He’s definitely not shooting as well, especially from the free throw line. Paul sits under 80 percent from the charity stripe for the first time in his career. While that’s not a huge part of his game, it does help explain things a little. His turnovers are also up but he’s also averaging about one steal more per game, negating that aspect for fantasy. For now, it would be down to Harden and Capela for me from the Rockets. If Capela sits, maybe a cheap P.J. Tucker would make some sense. The Rockets could come into this game pretty short-handed so we might just be in a spot where we need to chase minutes. It’ll be a situation that we learn about through the day. Just remember, Denver isn’t an easy place to play, the pace is slow and the Nuggets rank fourth in defensive rating and real points allowed per game.

Players to Consider – James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela(if active), P.J. Tucker

Nuggets FPPM Leaders – Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, Jamaal Murray

Especially if Capela is out for the Rockets, this could really be a smash spot for both Millsap and Jokic. Houston wouldn’t many players that could really hang with those two down low and the rebounding percentage is already a pretty wide gap between the two teams. Houston is 23rd at 48.3 percent while the Nuggets are first and 54.1 percent. Taking Capela out of the mix would really just exacerbate that issue. Using players from Denver can be a hair frustrating because Jokic, Millsap, Gary Harris and Jamaal Murray all have a usage between 23 and 27.4 percent. It also doesn’t help that coach Mike Malone can sometimes jerk you around with minutes but that’s more of a minor tilt than anything to shy away from.

Houston actually hasn’t been that bad defensively this season, only giving up the seventh most real life points per game. Harris really deserves a look here as he’s getting James Harden defense which isn’t always exactly something to fear. Harris is actually right there as a minutes leader and will be tasked with holding Harden in check as much as he can. The flip side of that is his defensive rating has dropped three straight seasons and Harden is the best in the NBA at drawing fouls, tying for second in free throws attempted a game. Harris carries foul trouble risk but has the minutes and Harden does turn the ball over 5.4 times a contest. Trey Lyles is an interesting option off the bench. He doesn’t see a lot of run but carries a 27.0 usage on the season and could be facing a weaker front court.

Players to Consider – Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Jamaal Murray, Trey Lyles

Fantasy NBA – Hawks at Warriors

Pace Rankings – Hawks at 1st, Warriors at 11th

Hawks FPPM Leaders (without Dwayne Dedmon) – Trae Young, Taurean Prince, Alex Len

This game is one you might need to take a stand on. It should have some fantasy goodness but there is definitely blowout risk, despite Steph Curry being ruled out already. John Collins could be back for this game so it’s something we need to keep an eye on. Dedmon missed the last game and could miss this one so we’re pretending he’s going to miss. Young would be a solid option with a 1.24 FPPM mark without these players and is coming off a great game with 20 points and 12 assists. The game is fast-paced and the Warriors are average against the point guard position, though much of that is obviously with Curry.

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Alex Len would take a hit if he’s going to see Draymond Green defense in this spot. The Warriors are one of the tougher teams against centers and sports a 3.5 percent advantage in rebounding percentage. Kent Bazemore and Prince are both fine options but not exactly anyone I’m looking to jam into every lineup. Jeremy Lin has been up and down but has over 20 minutes in two of the last four games. I worry about the Hawks not being able to stick with the Warriors.

Players to Consider – Trae Young, Taurean Prince, Alex Len, Kent Bazemore, Jeremy Lin

Warriors FPPM Leaders – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson

There’s a definite chance that Draymond could sit or at least be limited in minutes since he’s just coming off an injury. Durant has been the monster without Curry and that’s not something that’s going to change tonight whatsoever. This is a very dangerous spot for Atlanta. They face the sixth most three-point attempts and have allowed the third highest percentage. Golden State shoots right under 30 three’s a game and has the highest shooting percentage of any team in the league. Obviously, those numbers take a hit without Curry but Thompson and Durant are more than capable of hitting some trey’s tonight. The only thing really stopping me from playing any of the big names from the Warriors is potentially only getting three quarters from them. I’m perfectly willing to go back to Quinn Cook as a cheap option tonight.

Players to Consider – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson, Quinn Cook

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