Has Santiago Solari actually changed anything at Real Madrid?

Santiago Solari is set to be given the Real Madrid managers job on a permanent basis, but has he really changed anything over the past few weeks?

Santiago Solari’s interim reign over Real Madrid has gone perfectly. The club secured their fourth win in all competitions under the Argentine against Celta Vigo on Sunday. After such an impressive run of results, Solari seems set to remain Madrid manager until at least the end of the season. It’s hard to argue with the appointment, particularly given the lack of other options, and yet it’s not immediately clear what Solari has changed. Results have improved of course, but what exactly has Solari done differently to his predecessor, Julen Lopetegui?

Since Solari has only overseen four games — all of which came against relatively poor opposition — it’s difficult to draw any sweeping conclusions. However, if there’s one standout feature of his time in charge, it’s an improved record at the back. Under the Argentine, Madrid have kept three cleans sheets, and conceded the first two goals of the Solari era in their last game, a 4-2 win against Celta Vigo.

Solari’s knack of organizing a defense has seemed to have carried over from his previous job in charge of Real Madrid Castilla. One of the few positives of Madrid’s youth side under Solari was their well organized defense, and generally Castilla’s best performers under the 42-year-old were defenders.

And yet while the goals conceded numbers have improve, the more advanced statistics suggest little has changed. Up until their 5-1 thumping at the hands of Barcelona, Real’s defensive numbers were very good. They had allowed the third fewest non-penalty, non-own expected goals (NPxG) and had allowed the fewest passes per defensive action (PPDA) in the league, which suggests their high press was working successfully. Those numbers have persisted under Solari. Los Blancos have the fourth best NPxG in the league and the second best among the top six (behind Atletico Madrid). Madrid also have the fifth best PPDA in the league, second among sides in the top six.

Looking at the  league games Solari has managed, Madrid haven’t given away high xG chances, and their PPDA hovers around 8-12, depending on whether they’re home or away — almost identical numbers to many of Lopetegui’s league matches in charge. Rather than any notable changes in style, then, some rather different factors have contributed to Madrid’s defensive upturn and their improved form overall.

The biggest of these may simply be luck. Solari got an easy start to managerial life at Madrid, facing Melilla, Real Valladolid, Viktoria Plzen and Celta Vigo in his first four matches. Melilla and Viktoria Plzen are obviously a level below the Spanish giants, while Real Valladolid have the third worst attack in La Liga. In three of the aforementioned games (we’ll get to Celta Vigo a little later), Madrid were lucky not to concede. Real Valladolid and Viktoria Plzen both hit the woodwork on at least two occasions, and Melilla consistently found space behind Real’s defense, only for their quality to let them down in front of goal.

Though he hasn’t changed much, it would be unfair to say Solari has done nothing. The Argentine has made some small tweaks of his own that might have contributed. Madrid no longer hound the opponents like they did under Lopetegui, with Solari often asking his team to stay compact and defend in a low block once the opponent make ground in Madrid’s half of the field. Solari has also ditched the goalkeeper rotation policy and started Thibaut Courtois in three of the four games he’s taken charge of, with Keylor Navas’s only game under Solari so far coming in the Copa del Rey. The Belgian seems to have prospered with consistent minutes, making some crucial saves to keep Madrid’s clean sheet record intact up until Sunday.

With all this in mind, it’s ironic that perhaps Madrid’s best defensive performances in Solari’s short tenure in charge was their last game, against Celta Vigo, in which they conceded twice. Nonetheless, Madrid were impressive in how they denied a prolific Celta Vigo attack (the third best in the league).

The performance is made even more impressive considering Madrid’s injury problems. Defensive stalwarts such as Raphael Varane, Dani Carvajal and Marcelo were out from the start and they lost Casemiro, Nacho and Sergio Reguilon to injury during the game.

Madrid’s defense was very much makeshift by the time Hugo Mallo volleyed home Celta’s first, with Javi Sanchez partnering Sergio Ramos in the middle and both Nacho and Alvaro Oridozola limping from knocks they had picked up. Even the host’s second had a bit of fortune about it as the ball deflected off a defender to wrong foot the goalkeeper. The lack of quality chances created by Celta is reflected in their xG for the game, a measly 0.72.

It’s difficult to draw too many conclusions from Madrid’s defensive performances under Solari so far, but should they continue to defend like they did against Celta on Sunday, it seems likely their good defensive work will finally pay dividends in the form of clean sheets, especially as first choice options return after the international break. Then the big question for Los Blancos will be whether they can continue to put chances away at the under end.