NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks: 11/14/18
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks articles!
Welcome back to the NBA Daily Fantasy Stacks article via Fantasy CPR! It’s been a few days since my last article due to a busy weekend and the fact that last night was only a 3-game NBA slate (deeming stacking to be more so a game-by-game breakdown). With that being said, we are right back to it with an action-packed 11-game slate.
As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
NBA Daily Fantasy Slate Outlook: 11/14/18
This slate should be a TON of fun. We have Jimmy Butler‘s debut in Philadelphia, the Minnesota Timberwolves in an awesome matchup without Butler and a handful of blowouts to avoid.
At first glance, we want to target the pace-up / high-O/U games like POR/LAL and NOP/MIN, but there is a third game that I think will fly under the radar that carries a ton of fantasy value. I’ll touch on it in the top/secondary value stack section, but for now, let’s get to the main game stack of the night.
Primary NBA Daily Fantasy Game Stack: Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers (227 O/U)
Blazers Team Ranks:
Pace: 17th (102.5 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 4th (111.9 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 5th (102.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)
In their two meetings against the Lakers this season, the Blazers are averaging 121 points per game while the average point total of the two games has been 235.5. If that doesn’t scream fantasy friendly then I don’t know what does.
Damian Lillard ($9.3k FD / $8.8k DK) has been his usual self this season, posting a usage rate of 21.6% while recording 1.26 fantasy points per minute. In his first two meetings with the new-look Lakers this season, he’s averaged 29 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists and 2 steals in 35.6 minutes per game. At that salary on both FanDuel and DraftKings, he makes for an elite play in all formats.
The “2” in the Blazers’ 1-2 punch, CJ McCollum ($6.4k FD / $6.6k DK) comes into tonight’s matchup at a discounted rate as he’s experienced an up-and-down season, but the down hasn’t come against the Lakers. He’s averaging 25.5 points per game in his two meetings with them this season without recording a single steal or block. I expect the steals number to change, as McCollum is an exceptional perimeter defender and it’s only a matter of time in such a pace-up game. With KCP seeing less and less minutes this season, McCollum should have room to breathe and is a great value tonight, especially on FanDuel.
Jusuf Nurkic ($8.0k FD / $6.5k DK) has been extremely difficult to pinpoint this season due in large part to his erratic playing time. He hasn’t seen more than 30 minutes in all but 2 games this season, but comes into tonight in great form. He’s fresh off of a 18-point, 17-rebound double-double in 27 minutes against the Celtics and is averaging 1.36 fantasy points per minute this season. He’s only averaged 23.6 minutes per game in his first two against the Lakers this season but has been able to turn that into 15 points, 11 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1 block per game. He’s very reasonably priced on DraftKings, making him a great mid-tier play, but he’s priced too high for my liking on FanDuel.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5.3k FD / $4.9k DK) and Evan Turner ($4.3k FD / $4.4k DK) are two players that are always worth consideration in up-tempo matchups given their abilities to stuff the stat sheet. Aminu will be tasked with guarding LeBron James which helped him top 34 fantasy points last time out with expanded opportunity for peripheral stats. Turner seems a shade under-priced on FanDuel for having recorded 24+ fantasy points in 2 of his last 3. Both are viable value plays across the board.
NBA Daily Fantasy – Lakers Team Ranks:
Pace: 3rd (107.4 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 10th (107.1 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 18th (106.9 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The Lakers have finally put a string of wins together, coming in on a 3-game winning streak with 2 days of rest.
LeBron James ($11.2k FD / $10.3k DK) is always the centerpiece of a Lakers stack and tonight is no different. He’s posted an average of 27 points, 8.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists and a block per game in his first two against the Blazers this season but statistics don’t matter here, he’s never a bad play. He feels a tad under-priced tonight given the game script, making him arguably the top overall play on the slate.
The second-most reliable threat on this Lakers team has surprisingly been Kyle Kuzma ($6.3k FD / $6.0k DK). He’s got the second highest usage rate on the team (24.3%) and has produced just under a fantasy point per minute. He’s topped 30 minutes in 8 of his last 9 games and should see similar run tonight, making him a viable mid-tier play.
Fellow forward Brandon Ingram ($6.0k FD / $5.7k DK) has been much more inconsistent this season as he’s been rather one-dimensional. He makes for more of a GPP play this season as his floor is considerably lower than expected while still possessing a 45-50 point ceiling. The game-stack is the only reason I would target him tonight.
With Lonzo Ball ($5.7k FD / $5.4k DK) and Rajon Rondo ($5.2k FD / $5.2k DK) splitting the PG duties, we’ve seen their fantasy ceilings capped. That has also led to a drastic decrease in their respective prices. While Ball has failed to score in double-figures in 4 of his last 5 games, he’s been able to contribute across the board and record 30+ fantasy points in 2 of those outings and 24 in the other. At his price, he’s a phenomenal GPP option. Rondo is also interesting, but the decline in minutes has me inclined to go with other options in the same price range.
Secondary NBA Daily Fantasy Game Stack: New Orleans Pelicans @ Minnesota Timberwolves (220 O/U)
Pelicans Team Ranks:
Pace: 4th (106.9 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 6th (111.1 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 23rd (108.6 points allowed per 100 possessions)
After a hot start to the season, the Pelicans saw themselves drop 6 straight before coming into this game winning the next 3. They’ve been arguably the streakiest team in the league this season, but definitely one full of fantasy goodness.
Anthony Davis ($12.3k FD / $11.3k DK) seems to be over his elbow injury, as he’s averaged 27.7 points, 16 rebounds, 6.3 assists and 2.7 blocks per game over his last three games. The Timberwolves rank in the bottom third in the league in fantasy points allowed per game to opposing centers (56.80), cementing his spot as a top 3 play on the slate. The $1,000 price discrepancy makes him an appealing play on DraftKings, but nonetheless I won’t talk you off of him regardless of site tonight.
With Jimmy Butler now in Philly, Jrue Holiday ($9.0k FD / $8.5k DK) could be in for the biggest night of any Pelican. He’s stepped up tremendously this season, posting over 40 fantasy points in 9 of his last 10 games. If we are going off of that alone, we could consider his FLOOR to be 4.4x on FanDuel and 4.7x on DraftKings. Obviously we want to target 5x, but that’s a super solid floor. Minnesota was dead last in the league in defensive efficiency WITH Jimmy Butler, so lord knows what will happen without him. Fire up Holiday as an elite play in all formats.
With Nikola Mirotic ($7.7k FD / $7.5k DK) sitting out the last two games with an ankle injury and questionable for tonight, we could potentially see Wesley Johnson ($3.5k FD / $3.4k DK) draw another start and see 20+ minutes. While he doesn’t make for a strong play on DraftKings, the burner rule on FanDuel makes him an ideal punt. Should Mirotic suit up, I would consider him strictly a GPP play with a potential minutes cap.
If Mirotic sits, Julius Randle (7.3k FD / $6.9k DK) would continue to be the primary beneficiary. In the two games Mirotic has missed, Randle has started and averaged 36 minutes, 19.5 points, 13.5 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1 block per game. He would be a fantastic GPP play should Mirotic sit.
NBA Daily Fantasy – Timberwolves Team Ranks:
Pace: 9th (104.6 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 15th (105.8 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 30th (112.7 points allowed per 100 possessions)
With the Jimmy Butler saga behind them, the Timberwolves can finally move on and build around Karl-Anthony Towns ($10.5k FD / $9.5k DK), who should be a monster with Butler gone. In their first game without him, Towns posted 25 points, 21 rebounds 3 assists, 2 blocks and a steal. He did have 10 turnovers, but that line makes for Towns’ 3rd 50+ fantasy point outing in his last 4 games. If Minnesota wants to stay in this game, he’s going to need to keep his foot on the gas pedal. With Wiggins and Teague questionable, we could see an even bigger usage rate, making Towns a no brainer on DraftKings under $10k.
Derrick Rose ($7.2k FD / $7.2k DK) should also see a massive spike in production, as he holds a team-high 32.4% usage rate without Butler and averages 1.23 fantasy points per minute. Over his last 4 games, he’s played an average of 36.2 minutes, posting 24 points, 5 assists and 3.5 rebounds per game. What’s scary is that he’s getting better as the season progresses. His price seems high at first glance, but given the recent form and usage bump sans Butler, you can justify it on both sites in all formats, especially if Jeff Teague sits.
While Andrew Wiggins ($6.7k FD / $5.7k DK) should see a bump in his rates without Butler, the re-emergence of Derrick Rose has me questioning if it’ll be as drastic as some think. He’s still priced under $6k on DraftKings, making him a good play if he suits up assuming the shot volume will be there.
The two newcomers, Robert Covington ($6.6k FD / $4.7k DK) and Dario Saric ($5.2k FD / $4.5k DK) come in extremely cheap on DraftKings and could make for interesting plays in the case that they suit up. It is expected that Saric will slide into the starting PF role, which could give someone like Julius Randle fits when he draws him to the perimeter. He’s strictly a GPP play until we gain some clarity regarding his role, but the ceiling is there should he start.
NBA Daily Fantasy – Value Stack – Brooklyn Nets (vs MIA)
Nets Team Ranks:
Pace: 24th (100.9 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 12th (107.1 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 24th (108.6 points allowed per 100 possessions)
After Caris LeVert suffered what appeared to be a season-ending injury Monday night, the NBA welcomed good news Tuesday afternoon when it was reported that LeVert avoided major ligament damage and broken bones and is expected to return this season.
In the meantime, there will be some beneficiaries from a fantasy standpoint. From a scoring standpoint, it’s hard to imagine that D’Angelo Russell ($7.5k FD / $6.7k DK) won’t see a significant uptick in volume. He’s always more of a GPP play, especially given his current price, but we could see a TON of shots here.
What’s extremely surprising, however, is the fact that Spencer Dinwiddie ($5.8k FD / $4.9k DK) sees the highest usage rate (28.7%) of the main rotation players with LeVert off of the court. He’s cheap across the industry and should carry virtually no ownership tonight.
I would have to imagine that DeMarre Carroll ($4.0k FD / $4.1k DK) will also be a beneficiary of the extra minutes and usage as he makes his way back from injury. He saw a season-high 23 minutes last game, indicating that the training wheels may be off for the season. He’s proven his ability to provide the necessary scoring that’s left behind by LeVert and is also able to contribute in the peripheral categories.
NBA Daily Fantasy – Value Stack – Miami Heat (@ BKN)
Heat Ranks:
Pace: 12th (104.2 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 19th (104.7 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 20th (107.2 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The secondary value stack conveniently happens to be faced off with the primary one, technically making this a value game stack.
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The Heat have been a reliable source of value throughout the season and I don’t expect that to change tonight. Rodney McGruder ($4.6k FD / $5.2k DK) has quietly had a fantastic season, averaging 13 points, 5.3 rebounds, 3.5 assists and just under 1 steal per game. He’s seen less than 30 minutes in the last two games (first time all season), so we could see his role being scaled back a bit, but I don’t think he’ll have a problem maintaining a fantasy-relevant role in the rotation. He’s a fantastic play on FanDuel at under $5k.
Fellow wing Wayne Ellington ($3.7k FD / $3.9k DK) has seen some reliable minutes since returning from injury and remains dirt cheap. He’s really only reliable in the scoring category, but having topped 14 raw points in 3 of his last 4, he’s more than capable of reaching 5x value on points alone at his current salary. With Dion Waiters remaining out and the status of Dwyane Wade up in the air, he could once again but one of the top punts of the night.
While he isn’t a typical “value” play, Hassan Whiteside ($9.2k FD / $8.4k DK) comes in as one of the top PP$ (point per dollar) value plays on DraftKings. He only saw 21 minutes while being dominated by Joel Embiid last game, but in the 3 games prior, he had been averaging 18.3 points, 18 rebounds, 5.7 blocks and 2 assists per game. The Nets allow the 2nd most fantasy points per game in the league to opposing centers and with Jarrett Allen questionable, they could be even more depleted in the front court. Unless he somehow gets into foul trouble, I see no way in which Whiteside doesn’t feast tonight.
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