NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Wednesday November 14

Welcome to the Wednesday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Tuesday’s NBA DFS slate was an ugly one and predictably the scores were lower than usual as winning GPP scores barely reached 325 points on FantasyDraft. James Harden and Kevin Durant were no surprise as the top 2 performers on the night but seeing Tristan Thompson slot in at the third highest point total at only 20% ownership was really where the difference was made for folks on this tiny three game slate.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Massive Slate – Where do we start?

Let me start by saying – I hate having these super small slates followed by these massive NBA DFS slates – it makes the smaller slates nearly unplayable and the variance increases drastically when your player pool has to cover 10+ games. I am a one line-up guy, I do not mass multi-enter or run optimizers/line-up builders or anything like that – I play my one lineup and enjoy my night, which makes narrowing down the player pool on nights like this that much harder – you need to find the guys you like and simply drown out the noise.

With that being said – going into this slate, as a Jersey boy – the two “local” teams in Brooklyn and New York were games I had circled right off the bat as games I thought we could build around.

Let’s start with the Knicks – because well, the best player in the NBA happens to be on that team – none other than Tim Hardaway Jr. ($13.6K). Let’s put my irrational love for THJ aside for a moment and dig into this OKC-NY game which has some big news that could impact this game and open up some big time value.

First on the OKC side – we already know that Russell Westbrook is OUT which means go ahead and fire up the duo of Paul George ($17.5K) and Dennis Schroder ($14K) as core plays once again. In the last four games, with Westbrook off the court, this OKC duo is accounting for 61% combined usage and will take on a Knicks team that is ranked 25th in the NBA over the last 10 games in defensive rating. The price for PG13 and Schroder is really the only “negative” you can point to in building around them today with PG13 being the player with the higher ceiling and worth the inflated price if I was forced to choose.

The Knicks side of this game could get real interesting as Coach David Fizdale has already stated he is looking to make a line-up change with rookie Kevin Knox ($7.9K) mentioned as being re-inserted into the starting line-up after back to back blowouts. Knox has played 24 and 25 minutes in these last two games which should alleviate any injury concerns and at a price point under $8K, is one of my favorite value plays at first glance.

With a #RevengeNarrative in play for the big men in this game – Steven Adams ($13.5K) and Enes Kanter ($12.3K) get to face-off against each other wit both big putting up 34+ in each of their last four games.

This game has some really solid stacking possibilities as it has the 5th fastest projected pace and with the Knicks shaking up their starting line-up, we could get some elite value – now if the Knicks could just keep the game close so THJ could break Wilt’s record.

NBA DFS – Nets take a big hit:

I do not have a favorite NBA team but living in New Jersey, I always find myself rooting for the Knicks and Nets – and have really enjoyed watching what the Nets are building in Brooklyn. The injury to Caris LeVert was horrible to watch and the reaction from his teammates tell you this was the heart and soul of their young squad, so losing him for the foreseeable future with a foot injury is going to really change the Nets rotations.

When LeVert left the game just before halftime against Minnesota, we got to see what the Nets would run without him as they inserted Spencer Dinwiddie ($9.6K) into the starting line-up. With LeVert off the court this season, no player sees a bigger usage boost than Dinwiddie who jumps up nearly 6%, sporting a team-high 28.7% usage rate in over 200 minutes of action while putting up 1.1 FP/M.

D’Angelo Russell ($12.8K) is the clear top dog in this offense and we saw last game what he could do when Kenny Atkinson leds him run the show. D-Russ, shot the ball a team-high 22 times with 15 3PA and put up 50 fantasy points against Minnesota. Over the last two years, with LeVert out, D-Russ has a 30%+ usage rate while putting up 1.2 FP/M so the upside for another 50 burger is there even in a tough match-up with the Heat.

Now this was the first time in 11 games that Russell played over 30 minutes – the caveat always with the Nets – as Kenny Atkinson is fine going with a deep rotation and spreading out his minutes so be careful assuming Russell is a lock for 30+ minutes.

Jarrett Allen ($10.1K) is questionable to play after missing the last game due to illness which pushed Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($10.1K) into the starting line-up. It was nice of FantasyDraft to price these guys at the exact same level so we can swap them in and out based off Allen’s availability.

If the Nets run the same starting five they opened the second half with against Minnesota – Russ, Dinwiddie, Joe Harris ($9K), Jared Dudley and RHJ – there is a ton of value to be had here with LeVert and his 28% usage rate now off the court.

The Nets are going to need Allen if they want to slow down Hassan Whiteside ($15.4K) here tonight and after getting crushed by opposing bigs like KAT and Jokic in their last few games, Whiteside has one of the highest ceiling of any center on this slate. Whiteside is volatile – both from a production standpoint and a minutes perspective – and we have seen that in his most recent outings against Brooklyn where he has gone for 50+ put also failed to crack 35 fantasy points in the other two games. Centers against Brookyn rarely fails though – so it is tough to ignore the potential of Whiteside especially if Allen misses again.

NBA DFS – Status of Dame:

The big news to watch as we creep towards lock is the status of Damian Lillard who is officially probable to play against the Lakers with a knee injury that forced him to miss practice on Tuesday and rehab the injury for four hours on Monday.

If Dame were to miss – CJ McCollum would become a near must play at over $12K and if Seth Curry ($6K) draws the start, I am not sure how you avoid a minimum priced player in the biggest pace up spot for any team.

As Mike Richman points out – “Lillard said it’s mostly just discomfort. He’ll go through a workout tomorrow before the game and then decide on his availability.” The fact its more a tolerance thing leads me to believe that Dame will play and if so, becomes an interesting GPP option. Any time a player has an injury tag for any considerable period during the day, people tend to overlook them in their player pool and on an 11 game slate that could easily happen here.

Lillard has gone for 45 and 48 fantasy points in two games against the Lakers already this season while McCollum has gone for 41 and 30. If Dame sits – McCollum is chalk but if he plays this back-court could become a lower owned GPP core.

I will say, the fact that the total and line are out already leads me to think Dame will play – totally just speculation but why would Vegas leave the line out there if such a critical piece had any chance of missing this game?

NBA DFS – Look Around the League:

With so many games on the slate – I wanted to touch on a few other key spots tonight quickly.

First and foremost, Jimmy Butler will makes his debut for the Sixers tonight against the Magic and it will be our first chance to see the new look Philadelphia attack. The easiest play here to take a wait and see approach instead of investing $15K for Butler, $16K for Ben Simmons and over $19K for Joel Embiid. There is only one ball to go around and this could be a spot like we see with the Warriors – when everyone is healthy, it becomes hard to count on any of them as DFS options due to their price points and split usage.

The Wolves and Pelicans game looks like a prime stacking spot tonight which is likely why Joe Metz highlighted it in his top stacks article today. Not only do we have a ton of injury news to monitor with Jeff Teague, Andrew Wiggins, Nikola Mirotic and Elfrid Payton all having questionable tags but we also have the likely debuts for Dario Saric and Robert Covington in Minnesota.

This game has the highest projected pace on the slate so loading up here once we sort through the injuries is a viable strategy. You can simply start your builds with the known commodities in Jrue Holiday and Anthony Davis and run it back with Karl-Anthony Towns and ignore the rest of the noise or look to use it for value when/if we get news.

Will Giannis Antetokounmpo be the forgotten stud on this slate? At a price point of $19.5K, the second highest on the slate and facing a Memphis team where Milwaukee see the largest pace drop AND largest projected point drop off their season average – I could see Giannis getting totally ignored tonight in a game that features two of the top 5 defensive teams in the NBA this season which is REALLY intriguing tonight.

Listen, I get match-ups and Vegas totals/pace and all that good stuff but if you step aside for a second and consider that Giannis will be owned a fraction of what guys like AD, KAT, LeBron, and Embiid will be owned – isn’t it worth simply playing the talent here? No player on tonight’s slate has a higher usage rate than Giannis (33%) and his FPPG average of 55 is behind only AD/Embiid so far this season. This is not about the match-up – this is simply about leverage and getting one of the best players in the NBA who will be totally ignored on an 11 game slate.

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

G: D’Angelo Russell 

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G: Spencer Dinwiddie

G: Tim Hardaway Jr.

F/C: Giannis Antetokounmpo

F/C: Paul George

F/C: Kevin Knox

UTIL: Rondae Hollis Jefferson/Jarrett Allen

UTIL: Joe Harris

Slate Overview: This one is a beast – with 11 games the player pool is simply overwhelming and I am sure as the day goes on we will see how the chalk plays out and this becomes a great slate to set your player pool in the morning and then watch how people react throughout the day. If everyone is going to jam in AD/KAT then Giannis could be the over-looked stud that helps set you apart. If Hassan Whiteside is everyone’s cover boy today – pivot to the other side of this game and grab Allen/RHJ as a leverage play. My point is this – do not get married to your line-up too early today. For me, I am going into this slate with a focus on the NY/OKC game and the Brooklyn/Miami game and will see how the news shakes out – for example, if Dame is out then McCollum becomes a lock and I will likely push Seth Curry into my builds but if Dame is in, then it all changes. I will post news on Twitter @2LockSports as it comes through so please keep an eye and let’s enjoy this beast of a slate!

Stay tuned to Fantasy CPR for all the latest NBA DFS news across FantasyDraft, DraftKings and FanDuel each and every day!