DraftKings Early CFB picks November 17: Avoid the blowouts

LOS ANGELES, CA – JANUARY 28: Carey Price #31 of the Montreal Canadiens holds his daughter Liv Anniston in the DraftKings NHL Accuracy Shooting event during the 2017 Coors Light NHL All-Star Skills Competition as part of the 2017 NHL All-Star Weekend at STAPLES Center on January 28, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Early CFB picks November 17: Avoid the blowouts

It’s another Saturday spectacular on DraftKings with 11 early games to pick from. We have the tougher Ohio State, Notre Dame, and Michigan State defenses, and an impending blowout with an awful Louisville team on the slate. And of course, we have plenty of Big 12 action and the stout Michigan D against a solid Indiana offense. Where can we find our best plays?

DraftKings Quarterback Picks November 17

Top Tier:

Will Grier has at least 27 DraftKings points in every game except for the Iowa State debacle. Oklahoma State’s pass defense is bad, so Grier is actually someone I would consider paying up for. I prefer Grier over a struggling Haskins.

Ryan Finley is an interesting pick because Louisville has one of the worst defenses in a power five conference. They are at the bottom of the ACC in just about everything, including points allowed. The only question here is whether Finley will get enough reps to get value. That said, he could have five TD passes in the first half, so I’ll say he’s worth the risk.

Ian Book returns at the right time for the Irish against a porous Syracuse defense. That said, the Orange should score enough to make this interesting and keep Book throwing. Is that a good thing? It should be.

Middle Tier:

Jett Duffey had the game everyone thought he could against Texas. That opens up a whole lot of possibilities against a Kansas State defense that is far better in theory than in practice. The Wildcats D is getting too much credit. They can be torched, and probably will be here. The upside of Duffey is greater than anyone else’s at the position today.

Taylor Cornelius threw for 500 in Bedlam. We do know that Oklahoma’s defense is still one of the worst in the conference. West Virginia is probably in the top half, but Cornelius could still throw for 400 here, especially with the receivers he has to choose from.

Eric Dungey could be sneaky against an Irish defense has has holes in it. Dungey is a gamer, and this is a monster game for the Orange. He beat Clemson in the Carrier Dome last year. Can Dungey knock off another top three team in the state of New York?

Bargain Shoppers:

Despite the tougher matchup, I still really like Adrian Martinez against Michigan State. Only Northwestern and Michigan have kept him under 30 DraftKings points among FBS opponents. I’m not sure the Michigan State defense is in that class.

Tennessee’s D is playing better lately, but Drew Lock is capable of putting up huge numbers. He has 48.81 DraftKings points over the last two games against Florida and Vanderbilt. Tennessee’s defense isn’t the caliber of either of those.

Jamie Newman took it to NC State in his first start. There is no way that Pitt’s defense is as good as the Wolfpack. That makes Newman a very dangerous value play with the receivers at his disposal.

Tyrrell Pigrome isn’t the passer that Adrian Martinez is, but he is still dangerous enough to gash the Ohio State D, and he is just $5,000. If I trusted that Jarrett Guarantano could throw a spiral more than ten yards down the field, he would be a great play against a weak Mizzou secondary.

CHESTNUT HILL, MA – SEPTEMBER 29: Ryquell Armstead #7 of the Temple Owls runs the ball in for a touchdown during the second half of the game between the Boston College Eagles and the Temple Owls at Alumni Stadium on September 29, 2018 in Chestnut Hill, Massachusetts. (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Running Back Picks November 17

Top Tier:

We have several great options at running back today, but my favorite is Ryquell Armstead. I was all over him against Houston, and will be here against a South Florida defense that is just as bad. I expect Williams to have a good game against the Orange and Qadree Ollison to gouge Wake, but they probably wont come near Armstead’s output.

I’m a big Devine Ozigbo fan, but in this tier, as much as I hate to admit it. J.K. Dobbins is the better option against Maryland. The Turtles are weaker against the pass, but Dobbins is the kind of runner that will give them problems. Karan Higdon is worth a look against a poor Indiana rush D, but I do wonder how much run he will get when this game gets out of hand with Ohio State on the horizon.

Middle Tier:

Alex Barnes could end up as one of the better RB options out there. Texas Tech’s defense is better, but Barnes is the K-State offense, especially with Skylar Thompson out. I also expect Reggie Gallaspy to have a huge rebound game against an awful Louisville team.

Olamide Zaccheaus only has 69 rushing yards on the season, but he has averaged 20.5 DraftKings points per game. It’s not touchdowns. That is just how dangerous Zaccheaus is out of the backfield as a receiver. I’m pretty sure that Georgia Tech has no answer for a back with this skill set.

Texas Tech has finally settled on a running back. Da’Leon Ward has the skill set required of a back in this offense, and has responded with 19 receptions over the last three games while also carrying the ball 10 times in two of those games. He looks good against a sneaky bad K-State defense.

Bargain Shoppers:

If Matt Colburn can give it a go against Pitt, I like him for the price. Cade Carney is the same price, but I like him less in the same position if Colburn is out. Damarea Crockett is actually getting more carries than Rountree lately, and I still don’t trust that Tennessee D.

Oklahoma’s running backs destroyed the Cowboys last week, so I really like the value on Kennedy McKoy and Martell Pettaway. Good luck picking which one gets the more meaningful carries though. As with Oklahoma last week, I have no problem hedging your bets and playing both.

STILLWATER, OK – OCTOBER 27: Wide receiver Tylan Wallace #2 of the Oklahoma State Cowboys grabs a 16-yard pass against the Texas Longhorns late in the first quarter on October 27, 2018 at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Oklahoma. The Cowboys lead 31-14 at the half. (Photo by Brian Bahr/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Wide Receiver Picks November 17

Top Tier:

Antoine Wesley has at least 29 DraftKings points in every game since week 7 against TCU. He is probably the best Tech WR since Michael Crabtree, and the numbers keep getting bigger and bigger. I actually trust him a little more than Tylan Wallace, but as we saw with Iowa State, two receivers on the same team can come up huge against the Mountaineers. That leaves Tyron Johnson in play as well.

Kelvin Harmon has a 31.4 DraftKings point game and a 50.7 DraftKings point game over his last three outings. I like him a little less this week since I think this game is out of hand by halftime, but he will be a big part in the game getting out of hand.

My hangup on David Sills is what is always is. I’m not all that worried about the drops, but I am worried about all the other weapons in that offense. I would much rather spend on Greg Dortch, who is the best receiver you’ve never heard of.

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Middle Tier:

Miles Boykin is on my radar in no small part because of the huge game that Kelvin Harmon had against the Orange a few weeks ago. The Irish will have plenty of chances to burn the Orange deep, and Boykin will be on the receiving end of at least one of those shots. My trust in Boykin is up there with that of Wesley and the Oklahoma State receivers, and at a much lower price.

What does option B for Texas Tech look like? 24 catches for 274 yards and four touchdowns over the last four games. T.J. Vasher is still in play here as mid range exposure to this offense. In the same vein, you could have Gary Jennings as well, but West Virginia spreads it around more than anyone else on the afternoon slate.

Stanley Morgan is still a reasonable price, but I do have some questions about just how much Nebraska will get against the Michigan State D. However, Morgan is safe exposure to this offense because only Northwestern has held him under eight receptions in the last six weeks. If Spielman misses this game, Morgan is a must-play option.

Michigan tried to fine tune their passing game in what was a practice against Rutgers. This week may be more of the same. Donovan Peoples-Jones was targeted 10 times last week, and could be again as Michigan tries to make sure all facets of the offense work before the big showdown.

Bargain Shoppers:

Emanuel Hall is back! He has gone mostly unnoticed since his return, but we saw Hall have some huge games before a groin injury. He should recapture some of that magic against Tennessee, especially since Okwuegbunam is out.

Sage Surratt had a career game against NC State last week, and has been elevated to a co starter with Scotty Washington this week. Surratt is on the rise right now, and is a favorite target of Newman, so I really like him as a value receiver this week.

Terry McLaurin is about the only Ohio State receiver who is getting anywhere close to value with the sudden passing game swoon. The Buckeyes should get back on track against Maryland. This will either mean far less production of McLaurin, or that the Buckeyes will enhance what has been working for them lately. I have misgivings about any Ohio State receivers here based on current performance, but if the Buckeye offense has any chance of getting back on track this year, it will be here.

If Michigan State throws the ball, it will likely be to Cody White. This Michigan State offense is bad, but the Nebraska D is worse. This is a great chance to use some cheap Spartans.

Once again, I’m high on the Pitt value receivers. Maurice Ffrench is the main target, but Taysir Mack is healthy, and is arguably the most dangerous piece of this passing game.

Donavan Hale could go virtually untouched against Michigan, but he has 54.6 DraftKings points over the last four games. With defenses keying in on Westbrook, Hale has found himself open. If Indiana has the time to get the ball out, Hale could have a strong game for the price.

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