DraftKings NBA Picks November 15: Build around Jokic

DraftKings NBA Picks November 15: Build around Jokic

It’s a light day in the NBA with only three games for our main DraftKings tournament. After the massive slate last night, this one is going to come down to who gets separation where. With Curry still out, there is value to be had with Golden State guards, but which ones?

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Only the Spurs are on a back to back. They rested Gay last night, so keep an eye on this to make sure they don’t rest anyone else.

The money line last night was what has become a modest total this season of 276.25. I turned in one money lineup by playing the Thunder usage game with PG and Schroder along with Lillard. I morphed the other lineup into value with Giannis and A.D., and fell just short. If only I would have used LeBron….

The winning lineup was a pretty strong 364.5 DraftKings points. He built around LeBron and George and got huge value out of Teague and Nurkic. Add that to strong nights from a 2% owned Greg Monroe and a 0.1% owned Josh Jackson, and you have the guy that just won 100k.

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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Chris Paul ($8,000): Paul is usually an afterthought on big slates because if the Rockets are fully healthy he rarely puts up big enough numbers to warrant consideration. I may make an exception tonight on a short slate with the Rockets facing a Warriors team that will at least be without Curry. That will open things up more for Paul, and he can still take advantage if he wants to.

Trae Young ($7,300): Young is going to be up and down all season, and possibly beyond. He was last year in his only college season. Young relies a lot on shots falling, and as an Oklahoma fan, I can tell you that Young takes and misses a lot of what would be called bad shots because he can make them about one out of every three or four tries. The Hawks are so desperate for scoring that they are going to let Young continue to do what he wants. However, with the good and bad shooting comes a gift for finding the open guy. There is a ton of upside with Young, and he is definitely worth paying for on a short slate with a decent matchup.

Honorable Mention:

Quinn Cook ($5,700): The roulette wheel landed back on Cook Tuesday night after it was Shaun Livingston that put up good numbers on Monday. Welcome to life without Curry. Cook is still starting and getting the most chances, so the smart money stays on Cook. However, his numbers could disappoint with the price this high.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($5,300): SGA has done well as a starter for the Clippers. He has played at least 35 minutes and put up at least 28 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. The upside is solid, but SGA is also good enough to use as salary relief in cash games as well.

Dark Horses:

Derrick White ($4,800): The Clippers have been torched by point guards this season, and White has done well in his new starting role. White has at least 5x value in all of his starts this year. That isn’t going to change tonight against the Clippers.

Monte Morris ($4,100): Can we possibly cram any more value into the guards tonight? Morris isn’t starting, but he is playing minutes in the high 20’s to low 30’s. The production has also been there with the minutes. The Nuggets like Morris because he is efficient, selective, and he doesn’t turn the ball over. Us DFS players like Morris because he gives us a lot for a small investment.

My pick: Gilgeous-Alexander(PG), Cook(G), Morris(UTIL); Morris(PG)

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

James Harden ($10,700): Much like Paul, I don’t usually use Harden when the Rockets are at full strength. However, the Beard is the only bona fide stud out there tonight. He has the ability to put up points like no one else can, but is he worth the premium? Harden has only hit 5x value in three of his last ten games, but this is the Warriors. The star could come out tonight.

Klay Thompson ($7,400): Thompson has at least 37 DraftKings points in four of the five games with Curry out. KD is a must play when Curry is on the sideline, but you could argue the same for Thompson. He gets more shots, and his defense still shines through. Thompson is a strong play for the price tonight.

Honorable Mention:

Jamal Murray ($6,500): Murray is a consistent scorer and a decent passer, so you pretty much know what you are going to get with him. The upside is there though since he has dropped 60 DraftKings points a couple of times this year. On a slate like this, I find myself chasing upside. If you follow my picks, we are either going to win big or lose big.

Lou Williams ($6,000): The veteran still keeps plugging along. However, with the Clips this season we are getting some welcome consistency from LouWill. Williams has six straight games with more than 30 DraftKings points. That’s six straight games over 5x value. I’ll take it on a slate like this!

Dark Horses:

Eric Gordon ($5,000): The minutes and shots are there for Gordon, so I’m not all that worried about his recent lack of production. The 6-23 mark from the floor over the last two games is about what I could shoot, but the thing that sticks out to me are the shots (23) and minutes (64) in that span. Gordon’s shot will come back. That makes him a strong value option.

Bryn Forbes ($3,900): Forbes is a solid scoring option for the veteran Spurs, but the lack of production in any other category makes him a tough play, even at this price. We are going to need to come up with value somewhere with a lot of good expensive options on the slate. Forbes is good for 4-5x value. If you are expecting more you will likely be disappointed.

My pick: Thompson(SG); Thompson(SG), Forbes(G)

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bet:

Kevin Durant ($11,100): KD was not money against the Hawks, which is a place where many of us locked him in. I’m ready to go back to the well tonight since Durant is a usage monster with Curry out. Klay is really lighting things up in this particular Curry absence, but his numbers aren’t linked to the success of failure of Durant. Durant was just off on Tuesday night. Don’t expect a repeat of that. The Warriors are still going to be engaged in what should be a Western Conference Finals preview.

Honorable Mention:

Taurean Prince ($5,900): Prince is a very good shooter with range from the outside as well. He also puts up good peripheral stats for a very young Hawks team. We saw stretches like this from Prince last year after the Hawks threw in the towel. Prince is a capable scorer on a team that needs them. 6x value is within reach, but we are also kind of at the mercy of his scoring.

Danilo Gallinari ($5,800): If you thought you never heard anything about the consistent play of Gallinari last year, it’s even worse when he is completely on the West Coast playing on the little brother team of L.A. that most fans don’t even care about anymore. The huge games that Gallo sometimes had in Denver seem to be a thing of the past, but he is thriving playing Robin to Tobias Harris, and has not been under 20 DraftKings points this year. That’s a good floor for a mid range value play.

Dark Horses:

P.J. Tucker ($4,500): Tucker has played a total of 120 minutes, a team high, over the last three games. The problem is that consistent numbers have been hard to come by for Tucker. Still, this price for a guy that is on the floor that much is solid for a value punt. He can’t possibly avoid rebounds or dropping a few points in that much court time. The sheer volume of minutes makes Tucker one of the favorite punts of the night.

James Ennis ($3,700): At this point I trust Tucker’s minutes more, but Ennis is more of a scorer…..usually. He scored just one point in the two prior games while playing 41 minutes before Tuesday’s 16 point outburst. Ennis is the kind of guy that could decide a GPP tonight, for better or worse. He has seen both ends of the spectrum in less than a week.

My pick: Tucker(SF); Durant(SF), Tucker(F)

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($8,200): Aldridge would have been a tough sell for me tonight even if he hadn’t been a total bust last night against the Suns. The silver lining is that LMA only played 29 minutes last night, so the chances of him resting are reduced. Still, if you are planning on Aldridge, you almost have to have at least three players from this game in your lineup just in case we don’t get news before the early games lock. This is especially important if using Harris. If you don’t have Harris, it’s an easy switch to put Harris in for LMA even if you end up eating the rest of the salary. Still, I’m in no hurry to play Aldridge against a sneaky good Clippers front. This is DeMar’s team now.

Tobias Harris ($7,200): Harris continues to carry the Clippers, hitting at least 5x value in seven of six of the last eight games. I will like Harris more if the Spurs elect to sit Aldridge, but even if LMA is in there, few have been able to contain Harris. He is a double double machine and will even give you a handful of assists for your trouble.

Honorable Mention:

Paul Millsap ($5,800): Millsap followed up his best game as a Nugget with a complete disaster against the Rockets. Such is life in a Mike Malone rotation. Just ask Faried about that one. However, this is a revenge game against Atlanta, who also happens to have one of the worst total defenses in recent memory, especially with Dedmon missing out of the middle. If Jokic is out, Millsap is a must play. He may be anyway regardless of the status of Jokic at this price.

Dark Horses:

Jonas Jerebko ($3,900): Jerebko was huge with Draymond serving a team mandated suspension on Tuesday. All signs point to Draymond returning, but what will the chemistry be after the spat between he and KD on Monday? There is a chance that Jerebko still sees enough run to put up solid numbers here. However, Juancho’s minutes seem safer for the moment.

Juancho Hernangomez ($3,800): Juancho has tallied 69 minutes over the last two games, and while the 37 DraftKings points does leave something to be desired, Hernangomez is really cheap for the kind of minutes he is playing. We saw what Juancho can do with big minutes at times last year. It feels like only a matter of time before he goes off. If Jokic sits, Juancho could explode.

My pick: Harris(PF); N/A

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Nikola Jokic ($9,600): Jokic says he is fine after going to the X-ray room after Tuesday’s game. The Nuggets have said absolutely nothing on the subject, so all we have to go on is the word of Jokic. If Jokic is right, he may hit 70 DraftKings points tonight if he plays 30 minutes. The Hawks are that bad up front. If Jokic starts, play him. There is more clear upside for him than anyone else on the slate. By clear upside I mean upside that is not contingent to what happens with another player.

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Honorable Mention:

Clint Capela ($7,000): This is not an ideal matchup for Capela, but if you remember last year’s playoffs, he did well against the Warriors. It’s plug and play for Golden State. Capela will likely draw Draymond, but the ownership is going to be low here. You can gain separation on the field with a contrarian Capela against a statistically strong Warriors interior that couldn’t really handle him last year.

Montrezl Harrell ($6,200): Harrell has played 30 or more minutes three times in the last four games. The Clippers have won all three of those. The one he didn’t? They lost to the Blazers. There are other factors, but it is very clear to me that Harrell needs to see more minutes. He has at least 37 DraftKings points in each of the last three games. The only thing that can slow him down is his coaching staff.

Dark Horses:

Marcin Gortat ($3,400): The Polish Hammer has pounded his way back into the rotation, which is pretty disappointing to me since I missed all of the Boban Marjanovic fun. Gortat is a steal for the price, but he isn’t going to get us much over 20 DraftKings points. Marjanovic is far less effective in limited minutes, so if you must use a Clippers center, let it be the Hammer.

Jakob Poeltl ($3,000): Poeltl the Toeltl may have played his way to chalk tonight against the Clippers no matter the status of Aldridge. He actually outplayed LMA in ten less minutes last night in the desert, and could be in line for decent run here in a primo spot for Pop to rest some veterans. Poeltl for the minimum is chalk on FanDuel, and a decent punt option on DraftKings.

My pick: Jokic(C), Harrell(F); Jokic(C), Harrell(PF), Poeltl(UTIL)

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