FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Thursday, November 15

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown

Hello, fellow NBA DFS junkies and welcome back to the Thursday edition of the FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown. I’m “Thunder Dan” and I love FanDuel NBA DFS more than Nathan Peterman loves throwing interceptions (too soon?)

All kidding aside, my goal every day is to give you my top targets every night for GPP contests for FanDuel NBA.  When making these picks I always take into account salary, ownership, and match-up and I always do my best to give you a clear rationale for why I believe each player makes an elite GPP target.

We have our second 3-game slate this week tonight, which isn’t exactly ideal, but I do really like one of these games both in fantasy and real life.  We might see a lot of chalk on that game, but I’m too concerned with ownership tonight.

I’ll go back to the game-by-game format today as that tends to work better on these smaller slates.  In each game breakdown I always try to give you my preferred options and then a few other secondary options that you can consider if you’re game stacking or if you need some value plays.

Remember, this is a first look article that is intended to get you pointed in the right direction with your research. Always make sure you monitoring Twitter for player updates or getting those push notifications to your phone.  Without any further ado, let’s get into the picks!

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Golden State @ Houston

Let’s go right into my favorite game (and likely everyone else’s) right off the bat. Tonight the Warriors travel to Texas for a potential preview of the Western Conference Finals. This game has a healthy 220 total and if I was a betting man, I’d consider taking the over before it goes up. All three games have similar Vegas totals tonight but this game has the tightest spread with Houston being favored by 1.5 points.

Let’s start with the Rockets, who are playing much better lately. They finally have their core of Paul, Harden, Capela, and Gordon all healthy and have moved on from the Carmelo Anthony experiment (a team playing better without Carmelo? No…)

I’m looking to lock in 2-3 of the Rockets’ core in every lineup and the most logical place to start is with James Harden (11700) and Clint Capela (8100). These two are positively correlated and both have a history against GSW.  I think Chris Paul (9000) is a solid pivot off Capela in what should be a fast-paced game and he’s stackable with Harden.

It’s hard to fit all three of these guys in the same lineup, but there is a fourth Rocket I’d consider adding to your stacks and it’s Eric Gordon (5000), who’s still a solid value for a scorer of his caliber that’s playing 30+ minutes in his last three games.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Houston @ Golden State

With Steph Curry being ruled out for another 5 games, it starts and ends with Kevin Durant (11800) for the Warriors. I’m trying not to read into any of the KD-Draymond drama from the other night and I think both guys are pros who want to beat their main challenger in the West tonight more than they want to beat each other up. I don’t care if he’s 80% owned, he will be in all my lineups tonight as I think this slate dictates that we lock him in.

Klay Thompson (7500) is priced higher than he’s been this season but he’s worth a look considering that he’s averaging 26-3-3 over his last 5 games and has picked up a lot of the slack since Curry has been out.  My stance on Klay remains the same as always – he’s probably not worth his price unless he scores 30+ real-life points, which is something he certainly can do, but he lacks the peripheral stats to have a monster fantasy game without some red-hot shooting.

Quinn Cook (5800) bounced back for a solid 18-4-6 against Atlanta the other night but will have to face Chris Paul defense and I feel like he’s getting priced up to his ceiling. Draymond Green (8000) is always in play for GPP’s and has done work against the Rockets in the past with a solid 9-13-6 line with 3.5 combined blocks/steals over his last five, but I’m not sure he’ll fit my builds at that price. The one GSW value I’m interested in is Andre Iguodala (3900), who has picked up some extra minutes in the last 3 games and could easily pay off his price with boards, assists, and steals. He could be asked to guard Harden and push for 25-30 minutes tonight.

 FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: San Antonio @ L.A. Clippers

The Spurs are coming off a disappointing loss to Phoenix last night and will look to bounce back against the Clippers on the road tonight. That might be a tall task considering how well L.A. is playing right now. The Clippers are riding high after knocking off the Warriors in overtime on Tuesday and this game looks like it should be competitive throughout.

I simply don’t use guards against the Clippers, as their backcourt defenders are really tough and even if Avery Bradley is out, Pat Beverley and the rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander are still a formidable duo. On top of that, San Antonio has a massive timeshare going on with Bryn Forbes, Patty Mills, and Derrick White all splitting the point guard and backup shooting guard minutes.

The targets for San Antonio would be DeMar DeRozan (8900) and LaMarcus Aldridge (8400) if you’re looking to be contrarian and pay up for someone who’s not from the GSW-Houston game. Either of those guys could drop a 50-burger tonight, but I’m not that inclined to roster either of them. One cheap piece from the Spurs that I could be interested in is Rudy Gay (5600) who was rested last night and could pay off his price tag a lot easier than the more expensive Spurs.

I’m probably avoiding the Spurs in this game as they have the second-lowest team total and their best options are priced up beyond what I’m willing to pay, while their cheaper options are not that attractive for fantasy purposes on a per-minute basis.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: San Antonio @ L.A. Clippers

So if you fade the Spurs, can you play some Clippers? Sure! There are a few Clippers that I do like today and it starts with their guards. Pat Beverley (4800) is a pesky defender and stat stuffer who could be a thorn in the Spurs side all night. He doesn’t score in double-digits often, but his ability to rebound and rack up steals/blocks from the PG position puts him in play at this price.

My preferred Clipper guard is the rookie Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6000). He’s taken control of the Clippers backcourt and showing why he was a lottery pick this year with averages of 18-5-3 and 2.7 blocks/steals over his last three games. The injury to Avery Bradley has opened up minutes for the rookie and he’s not likely to ever give them back. He’s played 35, 38, and 39 minutes in those three games and has looked dynamic on offense and defense. He’s finally priced appropriately, but I still love his upside tonight and the one place I like to attack the Spurs is with guards.

There’s not much else from the Clippers that I’m all that interested in as Danilo Gallinari (6500) has really lacked any type of ceiling all season long, and Tobias Harris (8300) and Montrezl Harrell (7500) are both just way too pricey. I know Harrell is rolling, but it might be time to jump off as his price went up a whole 1000 since last game and I just don’t see him going for 40+ again tonight.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Atlanta @ Denver

I think you have to take a stand on this 3-gamer and fade one of these games. For me, it’s this one as Denver is a large 12-point favorite and I think they dismantle the young Hawks team with ease.  Normally I’d have a lot of interest in big men Paul Millsap (6200) and Nikola Jokic (9700) but I just can’t see Coach Mike Malone giving these guys any kind of extended run tonight.  The Nuggets travel to New Orleans on Saturday and I could see Malone wanting his starters rested and ready for a big game against the Pellies.

Lead guards Jamal Murray and Gary Harris are both priced over 7k and using them would prevent us from getting the pieces of the Houston-GSW game we really want.  So it’s the lone cheap starter, Juancho Hernangomez (4100) who I’m interested in as a punt play. He played a whopping 38 minutes on Tuesday and while he didn’t do that much with his minutes, he still made 5x value on his price with 19.8 FD points.

The other bench players that I think could get fourth-quarter run for Denver are Trey Lyles (4600) and Monte Morris (5200). Morris got a price bump after his third straight solid game, but Lyles actually got a price decrease after playing only 12 minutes. He’s still a point-per-minute player and so if he gets his usual 22-24 minutes or more then he’s in a great spot to make value.

For Atlanta, it’s all about finding some value in a few cheap plays. Jeremy Lin (4200) is still cheap enough that he’s usable and getting 20+ minutes off the bench. Omari Spellman (4500) had his worst game in the last two weeks, but it was mainly because he was run off the court against a fast GSW team and it was a poor matchup for him. Dwayne Dedmon has already been ruled out and Alex Len is questionable, so that keeps Spellman and the only other healthy big man Miles Plumlee (3500) in play tonight.

FanDuel NBA GPP Breakdown: Sample Lineup and Slate Overview

To recap, I am prioritizing the GSW-Houston game as the main game I want exposure to tonight. The Harden-KD stack is the centerpiece of my “stars and scrubs” roster construction and I’ll likely have at least one or two other Houston core pieces in there as their tight rotation makes them appealing in what should be a close game.

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I’m only using value pieces from the Denver-Atlanta game as I think it’s likely to get out of hand and therefore the starters on both sides are not likely to make value.

A contrarian move would be to stack the late game with some Spurs and Clippers, but I’ll likely just use a few affordable pieces from that game instead.

Here’s where I am at this morning. Keep in mind these sample lineups are for illustrative purposes are not intended to be plug-and-play lineups. There’s still a lot that could happen that could change roster construction during the course of the day.

PG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (6000)

PG: Jeremy Lin (4200)

SG: Eric Gordon (5000)

SG: James Harden (11700)

SF: Kevin Durant (11800)

SF: Juancho Hernangomez (4100)

PF: Trey Lyles (4600)

PF: Omari Spellman (4500)

C: Clint Capela (8100)

That’s all I got today, folks! I hope you enjoyed my slate breakdown and I appreciate you taking the time to read my article. Be sure to share it with friends and fellow DFS players, leave comments or hit me with other feedback or questions on Twitter.  Good luck in your contests!