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Fantasy Basketball NBA Game by Game Breakdown, Thursday November 15

By Adam Strangis

DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 09: Nikola Jokic
DENVER, CO - NOVEMBER 09: Nikola Jokic /
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We’re back with another small three game slate on Thursday night but there’s plenty of fun to be had for Fantasy Basketball NBA this evening!

If you’ve read my breakdowns in other sports, you know by now that these articles tend to see tweaks and evolve through the season. As I listen to what people want to see and what’s helping, I try to gear it towards that end. In that vein, I’m going to start planting my flag just a little more. Instead of just players to consider, I’m going to categorize it into players that I like and players to know. Fantasy Basketball NBA changes in a hurry, as evidenced by the Warriors suspending Draymond Green on Tuesday. I’ll still try to give the plays I want the most at the time of writing. That might not be who I end up with, as Wednesday’s slate illustrated. Let’s get to work!

Fantasy Basketball NBA – Warriors at Rockets

Pace Rankings – Warriors at 11th, Rockets at 28th

Warriors FPPM Leaders – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green, Klay Thompson

The Warriors are without Steph Curry yet again and will be for a little while longer. In his stead, both Klay Thompson and Kevin Durant have a usage over 35 percent but they are expensive. The returning Green is up there as well and I’m a little undecided about using them. On a larger slate, I might just skip them entirely but let’s look deeper to find some value. The danger part for the Rockets defense could be they are giving up the eighth highest field goal percentage on the season. That’s not a good mix with Thompson and Durant, but Thompson might be the edge. He’s only shooting 35.5 percent from three point land on the season but he’s up to 40.5 over the last 10 days. He’s shot 30 three’s over the past four games and should continue to shoot as often as possible with Curry being out.

The complimentary pieces are all interesting but it will be a little tougher to sort through with Green back in the mix. Quinn Cook should see CP3 on the defensive end which takes away a good bit of his appeal. He was also back down to just 22 minutes in the game he played with Green in the lineup. Jonas Jerebko is coming off a monster game but likely won’t start with Green back and every one else is splitting minutes a little too heavily for my liking.

Personal Plays – Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant

Players to Consider – Draymond Green, Quinn Cook, Jonas Jerebko

Rockets FPPM Leaders – James Harden, Chris Paul, Clint Capela

Golden State is one of the best teams in the league against centers and Clint Capela has historically struggled against the Warriors(11.1 points, 6.8 rebounds) and yet he’s still calling to me a little bit in this spot. Unless the Warriors put Green on Capela, there’s not an obvious individual matchup that would concern me. The Warriors are in the top half of the league in rebounding percentage but not by that much. There’s only a two percent difference between Golden State and Houston. Here’s what’s interesting about Capela. The Warriors are allowing the fourth highest field goal percentage on shots within five feet of the hoop. Capela has taken 146 shots and 130 have come from within five feet and he’s shooting over 67 percent.

The next decision is whether we want to pay up for James Harden tonight. He’s been a little more worth the price the past couple games and this is potentially another good spot since it’s the third game in four days for the Warriors. He’s back to leading the league in usage and is third in the league in drives per game. He should be able to take advantage of the Warriors interior defensive issues as well. Chris Paul is super cheap for where we’re used to seeing him but he’s also exceeded more than 40 DK points once in his last six games. He could go under owned against Quinn Cook tonight. I’m not sure I really want to chase the big game from James Ennis from Tuesday night. The minutes were there but he shot 6-8 from the floor. He would be a salary saver only if we think he would see 30+ minutes once again.

Personal Plays – Clint Capela, James Harden

Players to Consider – Chris Paul, James Ennis, P.J. Tucker

Fantasy Basketball NBA – Hawks at Nuggets

Pace Rankings – Hawks at 1st, Nuggets at 27th

Hawks FPPM Leader – Trae Young, Taurean Prince, Alex Len/Kent Bazemore

We have another decision to make with Alex Len tonight because he’s once again cheap but finds himself in a tough matchup. Denver gives up the sixth fewest points to the center position but it’s hard to turn away from his 0.99 FPPM mark seeing as he’s played 27 and 32 minutes the past two games. It doesn’t help that it’s a pretty major pace down spot for Len either but we’re going to have to save money somewhere in these three games. He seems like a prime candidate to save some money.

Trae Young is fairly polarizing. His price just never seems to move and his production has been a total roller coaster. Some nights you’re going to get 30 points and then every once in a while he gets over 40-45 DK points. If you look at just the score last game, 28.25 looks pretty poor. However, he managed to pull that score while scoring just four points. You can spin that as it was encouraging since the real points were so low but there’s no way you can consider him anything other than a GPP option. If we want to get very similar usage and FPPM to Young at a much more reasonable price, take a look at Prince. He also draws one of the best matchups by position against the Nuggets. He’s seen a ton of minutes the past two games and the fantasy points have followed. That’s another reason to pay for Prince tonight. The old man himself Vince Carter had a nice game this past contest and on a short slate, he’s a viable GPP option with a scary low floor. He’s almost totally scoring dependent so understand what you’re getting into.

Personal Plays – Taurean Prince, Alex Len

Players to Consider – Trae Young, Kent Bazemore, Vince Carter

Nuggets FPPM Leaders – Nikola Jokic, Paul Millsap, Jamaal Murray

I don’t need many reasons to play Jokic and he might well be my favorite overall play on the evening. Atlanta sits 28th in rebounding and Jokic could be on triple double alert this evening…provided he plays. He did need an X-ray for an undisclosed reason after his last game so you’ll have to keep an eye in things throughout the day. Jokic said he was fine and I’ll believe him at this point. There is nobody down low that would have a prayer of stopping Jokic in this game, because Alex Len certainly isn’t going to do it. Also, Atlanta is allowing the second highest field goal percentage from three. That’s a small boost for Jokic and other on the Nuggets.

Paul Millsap is up next inn part because of his overall FPPM mark and because of the matchup as well. Since the Hawks are so poor on the glass, Millsap looks like he should crush. However, it would be wise to note the absolute dart throw Millsap has been over his last four contests. His DK points have been 17.5, 50.5, 26.75 and 8.25. There’s no telling what you might get but at under $6,000, he should be worth a look. Since the Hawks are getting beat up with three’s, I like the guard combo of Jamaal Murray and Gary Harris. They both average over 4.5 trey’s a game and about 33 minutes. Both are at really fair price points and could break the slate if they get hot shooting the ball. I would side with Murray if picking only one.

If Jokic is out, Millsap, Harris and Murray get a nice bump and I would imagine Trey Lyles would potentially start and be a great option as well, although likely pretty chalky. Juancho Hernangomez has gotten a boatload of minutes lately and even though he’s not doing much with them, is one of the salary savers if going stars and scrubs. There is blowout concern here so take a long look at the Denver backups if you believe the Hawks get smacked in this game.

Personal Plays – Nikola Jokic(if active), Jamaal Murray, Trey Lyles if starting

Players to Consider – Paul Millsap, Gary Harris, Juancho Hernangomez

Fantasy Basketball NBA – Spurs at Clippers

Pace Rankings – Spurs at 26th, Clippers at 8th

Spurs FPPM Leaders – DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Derrick White

This is the second night of a back to back situation for the Spurs so it somewhat goes without saying to keep an eye on news. For those who are new to NBA DFS, coach Gregg Popovich is notorious for sitting guys whenever he pleases. That would put any of the big name players in the crosshairs as a candidate to have a seat here and that would have a big effect on the game. Provided they’re both in, both DeRozan and Aldridge might go very low owned. People are going to be worried about potentially getting a zero with no game that you can pivot to on DraftKings. I’m actually a little bit of the same way if we have no news before the tip of the 9PM game but if you’re not scared of Popovich, DeRozan would be mix first choice. The usage and FPPM is higher plus I would guess he would be the least likely of the two big names to sit. To me, he might also be a little better suited to a run and gun game that the Clippers play.

More from FanSided

Rudy Gay sat last night and could be in action tonight. He likely would not play a ton of minutes as he averages just 27 a night and is coming back from an injury. He has been efficient with a FPPM of 1.04 and a solid usage rate of 23.1 percent o far this season. Derrick could be a nice source of salary relief but it should be noted that Patrick Beverley lurks. He’s seen his minutes decline the past four games but remains an excellent defender. Davis Bertans would be a very popular option as a salary saver should a teammate miss a game.

Personal Plays – DeMar DeRozan, Davis Bertans(if a player sits)

Players to Consider – Rudy Gay, Derrick White, Marco Belinelli

Clippers FPPM Leaders – Montrezl Harrell, Lou Williams, Tobias Harris

It’s little funny to see the two highest FPPM players be bench players for the Clippers but that’s the situation we’re in. I played Harrell in his last game and he was a monster but he also played right about 10 minutes more than normal. You would need close to the 32 minutes he played at his current production to get around 6x return on his salary and that seems like a poor idea. As much as I hate to do it, Harrell is likely a secondary option at best for me this evening.

Sweet Lou Williams has scored at least 31 DK points in six straight and is also on the bubble as far as salary goes. $6,000 isn’t the worst ever but he would need to have a pretty good night to make it worth it. Much like Harrell, there’s not much that sticks out about the matchup that screams you should play him. The play from this game might be Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It’s not coincidence that Patrick Beverley has seen his minutes go down as the rookie’s has spiked. He’s cleared 34 minutes in three straight games and sits at around 0.80 FPPM. The price is still super affordable for him in this spot and I’m perfectly fine chasing the minutes. He does take a little dip when playing with Williams but that’s nothing to get to worked up over at this point. I would likely rather take the savings on Danilo Gallinari than play Tobias Harris, but they are both pretty safe options.

Personal Plays – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari

Players to Consider – Montrezl Harrell, Lou Williams, Tobias Harris

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