Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies: Week 11

ARLINGTON, TX – NOVEMBER 05: Marcus Mariota #8 of the Tennessee Titans looks to pass in the first half of a football game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium on November 5, 2018 in Arlington, Texas. (Photo by Tom Pennington/Getty Images) Fantasy Football /

Fantasy Football Exploitable Inefficiencies Week 11

While it may be easy to find out how many points or yards a defense has allowed, it’s not necessarily the best predictor of future success. In order to get a more accurate Fantasy Football predictions, sites like Football Outsiders, tease out as much variance as possible, in order to reveal the true story.

Football Outsiders uses a method known as DVOA. DVOA is a method of evaluating teams, units, or players. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Remember, were dealing with extremely small sample sizes in the NFL and Fantasy Football right now, but here are some exploitable match-ups you may want to consider this week.

Pass Funnel Defenses:

NO (Pass: 28th, Run: 3rd), IND (Pass: 27th, Run: 9th), DAL (Pass: 26th, Run: 6th), HOU (Pass: 16th, Run: 1st)

More from FanSided

Indianapolis ranks 27th against the pass and 9th against the run

Tennessee will head to Indy to take on the Colts, after their impressive dismantling of the New England Patriots last week. Not only has this line moved off of a key number, from three to one, but the total has also risen. Indianapolis ranks 27th against the pass, and I would expect a now healthy Marcus Mariota, to take advantage of this weakness. Prior to the last two games (where they scored an average of 31 points), Tennessee faced one of the toughest schedules of opponent defenses. They played Houston (ranked 3rd), Jacksonville (ranked 9th), Buffalo (ranked 2nd), Baltimore (ranked 5th), and the Chargers (ranked 11th). Indy ranks 22nd overall, and will be one of the Titans easiest matchups yet. Combine that with a healthy Marcus Mariota and I love the Titans to surpass their team total this week. With Tajae Sharp and Taywan Taylor banged up, the target distribution should be a bit smaller, and lucrative for fantasy purposes.

Run Funnel Defenses:

KC (Pass: 12th, Run: 32nd), LARM (Pass: 13th, Run: 29th), GB (Pass: 9th, Run: 26th), SEA (Pass: 6th, Run: 20th), CLE (Pass: 2nd, Run: 27th), DEN (Pass: 3rd, Run: 18th)

Overall Inefficient Defenses:

ATL (32nd), TB (31st), DET (30th), OAK (29th), NYG (28th), NO (27th)

Philadelphia ranks 17th overall in defensive efficiency

While the Philadelphia defense ranks 17th in efficiency, hovering around the middle of the pack, they were bullied at home against the Cowboys last week. An inferior Dallas, hung 27 points on Philadelphia, and they’ll now be tasked with defending against the one of the hottest teams in football, the New Orleans Saints. Not only will Philadelphia have bit of a shorter week, after playing late Sunday night, but they’re secondary is currently decimated with injuries. It was announced earlier this week, that they’ll be without the services of Ronald Darby for the rest of the year, as he tore his ACL in last weeks game. Coupled with injuries to Jalen Mills, Sidney Jones, and Rodney McLeod, and an already bad secondary gets even worse. Jones is expected to return this week, but will be nowhere near 100%, and I expect the Saints Offense to get whatever they want against this Eagles defense.

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