James Paxton isn’t the bona fide ace Yankees fans crave, but he still could be a huge boost to Aaron Boone’s rotation in 2019.
Brian Cashman is exploring every possible opportunity to improve the Yankees starting rotation this winter. Much of the focus has been on free agency, but a big trade is also a distinct possibility. While most fans are focused squarely on Corey Kluber at the moment, the odds may favor James Paxton making his way to the Bronx.
The Mariners understand they aren’t going to be contenders in 2019. As such, they’re looking to move veteran talent in an effort to accelerate their rebuild. Seattle officials have already offloaded catcher Mike Zunino to kick off their offseason, and reports from the great northwest claim Paxton could be next. Specifically, the Mariners have tried to engage both the Yankees and Astros on what they might give up in exchange for the talented southpaw.
If Seattle officials believe the Yankees are going to make a similar offer for Paxton as they would for Kluber, they will be sorely mistaken. Paxton doesn’t have the track record of success or health that Kluber boasts. It’s only natural that New York would try to acquire him for a lesser haul of prospects.
That doesn’t mean Paxton couldn’t be a terrific acquisition for Cashman and company. When he’s at his best, he’s absolutely dominant. He pitched just over 160 innings for the Mariners last season with an ERA of 3.76. That doesn’t tell the complete story though. Paxton’s FIP was actually just 3.23. That number, combined with his 208 strikeouts last season show that Paxton could be the ace the Yankees are searching for.
It’s not a certainty though. Paxton’s injury history will give the Yankees serious pause. That doesn’t make a potential deal impossible, but it will significantly lessen what New York will offer Seattle in a trade.
In all likelihood, the Mariners will only be able to extract one premium asset in the deal. Estevan Florial will probably be off the table. The Yankees see him as their center fielder of the future. They’ve been hesitant to include him in a deal for Kluber. Paxton isn’t going to be enough to pry him out of the Yankees farm system.
Justus Sheffield, on the other hand, will be in play. He’s probably the best single asset the Mariners front office can hope for. Seattle might have dreams of bringing Miguel Andujar to Washington, but that deal isn’t going to fly either.
Sheffield can headline the deal, but the Yankees will need to include some other pieces to push the move through. It’s very possible Clint Frazier could be of interest to the Mariners. He’s a controllable outfield bat with power potential. His own injury issues are a concern, but he’s a useful lottery ticket for an organization in need of a talent infusion.
Paxton for Sheffield and Frazier sounds pretty close, but the Yankees might need to sweeten the deal just a little bit more. The Mariners would be smart to push for a young arm like Jonathan Loaisiga. That price is probably a little too rich for the Yankees. Instead, think about a prospect like Domingo Acevedo being the final piece.
Paxton for Sheffield, Frazier and Acevedo would be a good deal for both teams. If the Yankees miss out on Kluber, expect the rumors about Cashman’s conversations with Seattle to heat up instantly. This proposed deal would be a great way for both sides to win the transaction.