College Football Results Against The Spread Week 11 2018

College Football Results Against The Spread Week 11 2018

From what I caught on the radio starting my drive back home from south Florida on Saturday, I think I had a pretty good week. I need it for bowl season! I also need it to salvage any modicum of credibility I may still have.

I had a solid week in ESPN College Pick Em, so hopefully that is another good omen. All three games that I missed were in the lower part of my confidence picks, and I wouldn’t have missed all of those against the spread.

Here we will recap my picks against the spread. The winner against the spread will be in BOLD. My result will follow. Let’s get to it!

In case you want to follow along:
Tuesday-Friday
Picks for week 10

Let’s check the damage from this week.

Kent State at Buffalo(-23.5): HIT! Buffalo still covered even after taking the fourth quarter off. Of course, it helped that Kent didn’t score on the first team defense.

Ohio(-3.5) at Miami(OH): MISS! Not only did Miami not get covered, they managed to win this outright.

Toledo(-3.5) at Northern Illinois: HIT! I didn’t see Toledo winning outright, but I really didn’t see them getting buried either. The Huskies offense is peaking at the right time.

Wake Forest at North Carolina State(-16.5): HIT! I figured this was too many points, but I really didn’t think Wake would win outright. The Deacons are finally getting this young offense sorted out, and the defense looked very solid in this one. They should rebound in time to make that all important bowl game for a young team.

Louisville at Syracuse(-20.5): HIT! Taking Louisville to get covered has been the easiest money of the last month. That and picking Buffalo to cover. Vegas will catch up eventually, but for now, enjoy the free money!

Fresno State(-2.5) at Boise State: MISS! This was a strong showing by the Boise defense. They showed that they may still be kind of the Group of Five hill. Now if we could only get them to play UCF…..

TCU at West Virginia(-13.5): HIT! This was the kind of mojo that has been missing for the Mounties since the loss in Ames. WVU didn’t play all that well, and still dominated every phase of this game.

Ohio State(-3.5) at Michigan State: HIT! Offensive ineptitude was on display in this one. Michigan State was only able to score on a trick play, and the Ohio State offense needed until the fourth quarter to figure out this defense. Ohio State’s special teams play is what really set them apart though.

Navy at Central Florida(-25.5): HIT! It’s not the offense. UCF just doesn’t have the defense to cover lines like that this year.

South Carolina at Florida(-6.5): MISS! This was actually a good and entertaining game, but I should have known better than to pick Florida to cover after the Missouri debacle.

Wisconsin at Penn State(-9.5): MISS! Is it actually possible that Coan is worse than Hornibrook? Why can’t Wisconsin find a quarterback, but they can get a dozen running backs?

 Akron at Eastern Michigan(-13.5): HIT! It’s a good thing the Eagles had a big fourth quarter.

Tulsa at Memphis(-15.5): MISS! That’s what I get for being quite sure about anything…..

SMU(-17.5) at Connecticut: MISS! I had this prediction firmly in hand until SMU gave up 40 second half points, including 26 in the fourth quarter. Pricks…..

Kansas at Kansas State(-12.5): HIT! I didn’t really understand the firing of David Beaty in the middle of the season, especially when you let him finish it out. Not only that, but Beaty, with nothing to lose, still didn’t get aggressive in this game. I thought Kansas actively tried to make it close, not go for the win. Which I guess could be why they fired Beaty in the first place.

BYU(-13.5) at Massachusetts: HIT! UMass did hang around…..kind of. This was relatively close, but they were never really a threat to win.

Vanderbilt at Missouri(-14.5): HIT! It’s going to be tough to pick Missouri’s last couple of games because Emmanuel Hall is back in the mix, but doesn’t quite look as comfortable as he did early in the season yet. It will happen at some point, and this offense will regain that explosiveness that has largely been missing since the Purdue game.

Mississippi at Texas A&M(-12.5): HIT! It’s a good thing for me that the Aggies had a big fourth quarter.

Illinois at Nebraska(-17.5): HIT! The Nebraska defense nearly gave this away, even after Illinois fumbled every chance they got.

Maryland at Indiana(-3.5): HIT! Maryland didn’t win outright, but I’ll take a win any way I can get it.

North Carolina at Duke(-10.5): HIT! This is why rivalry week is so hard to pick. Yes, I know…..that’s looming. Which is part of why I need a big week.

Troy at Georgia Southern(EVEN): HIT! I guess I had more confidence in this one than I though considering I put two points on it instead of just one.

UCLA at Arizona State(-12.5): MISS! My first intuition was right. If I would have listened, I would have a nice nine game win streak going, which is still my longest of the season at eight.

Charlotte at Marshall(-13.5): MISS! Charlotte finally lost me a bet. Oh well, it was a good run! So long, and thanks for all the fish!

Liberty at Virginia(-23.5): MISS! If I would have hit this one, it would have been totally by accident. I never dreamed the Flames would hang 21 on Virginia, with none of them coming in the fourth quarter.

Bowling Green at Central Michigan(-7.5): MISS! Well, the only difference is I would have looked like more of a fool if I had taken CMU at -10.5.

Middle Tennessee State(-14.5) at UTEP: HIT! This line was out of whack, but not by as far as I originally thought.

Mississippi State at Alabama(-26.5): MISS! It’s hard to call this a letdown considering the Bulldogs didn’t score.

Michigan(-38.5) at Rutgers: HIT! Much as I thought, Michigan turned this into a glorified practice…..and still almost covered.

Oklahoma State at Oklahoma(-21.5): HIT! I knew this line was way out of whack. I’ve watched every Oklahoma game this year. I know how bad the defense is, and I’m not sure Bob Diaco makes it any better (he doesn’t).

Washington State(-4.5) at Colorado: HIT! This Colorado defense has to improve a lot to shock one of the top Pac 12 teams. I’m not sure that happens this year.

Kentucky(-11.5) at Tennessee: MISS! Well, there’s the Kentucky team we are used to. Choking in the SEC.

Northwestern at Iowa(-10.5): HIT! Can we make fun of the Big Ten yet? Which is more amusing: Iowa not even scoring what they were favored by or Northwestern winning the West despite going 0-4 in non conference play. Discuss.

Baylor at Iowa State(-14.5): MISS! Again, my intuition was right. That’s two I’ve given up this week. Lost in this was a rather interesting fight, and I’m still not sure why David Montgomery was tossed.

North Texas(-14.5) at Old Dominion: MISS! I should make a zero point bet, but that kind of defeats the purpose, doesn’t it. It’s games like this that make me want to.

New Mexico at Air Force(-13.5): HIT! This was probably an easier pick than I made it out to be.

Virginia Tech at Pittsburgh(-4.5): HIT! I never though Pitt would win by 30. This Hokie defense is a huge liability. The only place that they have really felt the loss of Josh Jackson is when they have to punt the ball back so quickly.

Purdue(-12.5) at Minnesota: MISS! How in the world does Minnesota allow 55 to Illinois, then one week later hold arguably the best offense in the conference to 10? I’m not the only one that lost money on this.

San Jose State at Utah State(-30.5): HIT! Chew on this one for a second: Oregon, widely regarded as one of the most explosive offenses around, only beat the Spartans by 13. The Aggies just ran them by 38. I want to see Utah State play Oregon in a bowl game!

East Carolina at Tulane(-13.5): HIT! ECU is finally starting to come around, but Tulane’s offense really isn’t built to cover spreads like this.

Appalachian State(-21.5) at Texas State: HIT! Just another methodical beatdown in the Sun Belt for App State.

Georgia State at Louisiana(-13.5): MISS! A 20 point fourth quarter allowed the Cajuns to snatch this one from me by a half.

Louisiana-Monroe(-5.5) at South Alabama: HIT! Yeah, I know. It’s kind of sad that a coin flip decided a game that was decided by 28 points on the field.

Arkansas State(-6.5) at Coastal Carolina: HIT! This is what the Red Wolves are capable of when Justice Hansen isn’t working his second job as a turnover machine.

Western Kentucky at Florida Atlantic(-17.5): HIT! It wasn’t just Devin Singletary in this one. “Backup” Kerrith Whyte ran for 163 as well!

Oregon at Utah(-3.5): MISS! My closest thing to a lock turned out to be a total bust, but at least I got one more five pointer right than I lost this week. That hasn’t always been the case.

Auburn at Georgia(-14.5): HIT! The bad part for Auburn is that this was one of the better games they played this year, and they still lost by 17.

Miami(FL) at Georgia Tech(-2.5): HIT! The Canes are lost right now. It was 85 when we got off the boat in Miami at 8am last Saturday. The seat under Mark Richt is even warmer than that…..

Florida International(-10.5) at UTSA: MISS! Sure. I say UTSA may win outright, and they lose by 38.

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Rice at Louisiana Tech(-24.5): MISS! I still don’t like Rice, but I think this was the best game they have played all season. I may have to adjust my picking on them over the last couple of weeks.

Temple at Houston(-3.5): HIT! This was a great game if you like offense, in particularly great offensive performances by individual players. D’Eriq King threw for five touchdowns for Houston. Not to be outdone, Ryquelll Armstead ran for 210 and six rushing touchdowns for Temple.

South Florida at Cincinnati(-11.5): HIT! The Bulls did make me sweat this one.

Florida State at Notre Dame(-17.5): HIT! The Seminoles made Brandon Wimbush look like the Brandon Wimbush of last year. It probably wont matter. This job is still Book’s when healthy.

LSU(-12.5) at Arkansas: HIT! This is one thing you can count on Arkansas for: They will hang with LSU. Anything else is just guessing at this point. This team is all over the place.

Texas(-1.5) at Texas Tech: MISS! This was a good game like I expected, but I think the pick was more wishful thinking on my part. However, if you would have told me that Duffey throws for 444 and Wesley hauled in eight for 171, I would have predicted a Tech win too. I really can’t see any good reason for Texas winning this. Still.

Southern Mississippi at UAB(-11.5): MISS! Could anyone else have taken UAB to overtime on the road right now? This was a really good showing by the Eagles. Unfortunately, they still may not make a bowl.

Clemson(-17.5) at Boston College: HIT! The Boston College defense played very well, but Clemson’s defense was nothing short of great. Boston College couldn’t even muster 100 yards of offense in this one!

Oregon State at Stanford(-22.5): MISS! There is the closest to healthy that Bryce Love has looked in the last two years, but it was the Stanford passing game that was on display here.

California at USC(-5.5): HIT! This game looked like USC was going to run off with it, then the Cal defense clamped down with a massive third quarter to steal one in the Coliseum.

UNLV at San Diego State(-18.5): MISS! They sure as hell can! Losing to UNLV? Really? A new low for the Aztecs. What we did learn here is that Lexington Thomas may have been the best running back in the game. No, he doesn’t play for Running Back State.

Colorado State at Nevada(-12.5): HIT! Not only did Nevada double this line, they tripled it! Sorry for not giving you guys enough credit!

It turns out my premonition was spot on. I easily had my best week of the year, and one of the best of my career. I went 38-23 on the week to put my season total at 305-290. The 51.3% is a little lower than where I wanted to be, but I am happy to be that far above .500, my high mark for the year so far.

With such a good week, I should be quite a ways into the black this week. Just how much did we make?

This week’s totals follow the number. The season totals are in parentheses.

1. 4-5 (49-43) = 6
2. 14-8(117-112) = 10
3. 10-6 (83-78) = 15
4. 6-2 (36-35) = 4
5. 4-2 (20-22) = -10

My five point picks are still severely lacking overall, however I managed to get all of my other picks into the black. I had a big week, winning 49 betting points, which finally puts me into the black at +25 on the season. It feels good to finally contribute something positive to my coffers here.

Make sure to come back for this week’s picks against the spread, our ESPN College Pick Em Picks, and our DFS picks for the NFL, MLB, PGA tour, and of course, college football! We have all of your needs covered!