Daily Fantasy Football: Week Eleven at Yahoo

Rizzla discusses his week eleven Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football: NFL Yahoo Cup lineup.

Another week of the NFL season is in the books and week ten was not without some excitement. Julio Jones found the end zone for the second straight week while Nick Chubb and Aaron Jones had breakout performances making their daily fantasy football owners rejoice with glee.

My week ten lineup had some hits but as always I attempt to learn lessons from each of the misses. The main misses were part of my Cleveland Browns stack with Jarvis Landry and David Njoku who put up a pitiful 3.2 and 2.3 points respectively. In the case of the former, the main lesson learned here was that despite his role and theoretical upside Jarvis Landry is more of a significant ceiling WR3 than the high end WR2 matchup play he appears to be. And in the case of David Njoku the main takeaway was that under Freddie Kitchens this is going to be a smashmouth offense where only Jarvis Landry is assured a weekly fantasy relevant role through the air, regardless of opponent.

For this week’s NFL Yahoo Cup free roll I followed my usual strategy of filling defense, tight end and quarterback first by identifying the best potential values and then doing the same for both running back and receiver.

Lamar Jackson $20 (27th salary rank; 12th personal rank)

My 12th overall QB for week eleven if he does indeed get the start, Lamar Jackson seems to have a plus matchup on paper versus a severely banged up Cincinnati Bengals defense. The Bengals have surrendered the second most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and have also relinquished the fifth highest yards per carry to opponents at five yards per tote. Lamar Jackson, should he get the start is in a prime position for fantasy success and is bound to be a trendy play this weekend in the GPP contests.

Mark Ingram $15 (35th salary rank; 13th personal rank)

Mark Ingram seems to have a tough matchup on paper as he faces off against a Philadelphia Eagles defense surrendering the fifth fewest points to opposing running backs. Deeper analysis reveals the Eagles have relinquished 103 yards per game and a stunning 7.94 yards per carry to the RB1 types they have faced this season, the latter mark being the number we are focusing on for fantasy purposes. Ingram should see plenty of burn in this contest as the New Orleans Saints look to run out the clock and keep Carson Wentz off the field. Mark Ingram popped up as a stunning value at only $15, especially when his rank of 13th overall in my personal rankings is taken into account.

David Johnson ($26 Salary; 9th salary rank; 3rd personal rank)

The awakened David Johnson has a dream matchup for fantasy purposes squaring off against an Oakland Raiders defense giving up the fourth most fantasy points to enemy running backs. Further cementing DJ’s appeal for week eleven is the great nugget via Mike Tagliere’s primer, that points out that the Raiders have given up 29.4 carries and 5.4 targets per game to opposing running backs. The Raiders inability to stand up against the run on defense coupled with Johnson’s exciting usage under Byron Leftwich as the offensive coordinator give DJ among the highest upsides of any fantasy player this week.

Julio Jones ($31 Salary; 7th salary rank; 2nd personal rank)

The surging Julio Jones faces off against a Dallas Cowboys defense giving up the fourth fewest points to opposing wide receivers. Byron Jones has been a force this season and will spend a lot of time covering Julio but there is still some exciting appeal to this matchup. Looking closer at the Cowboys numbers reveals that they have faced a grand total of two WR1’s all season, surrendering a combined thirteen catches for 202 receiving yards yards (6.5 receptions and 101 yards per game). Julio has averaged 20.9 Yahoo DFS fantasy points per game over his past two contests and remains an elite play on paper when the context behind Dallas’s numbers are taken into account.

Mike Evans ($22 Salary; 16th salary rank; 10th personal rank)

Mike Evans has a plus matchup masquerading as a tough one against a New York Giants defense surrendering the seventh fewest fantasy points to opposing wideouts. Deeper analysis reveals that the Giants have faced only three WR1’s all season in which they surrendered 6.3 receptions and 79 receiving yards per game. The 79 yards per game is a little misleading as the Giants have relinquished 12.4 yards per reception but get a boost from Michael Thomas hauling only four receptions (on four targets albeit) for 47 yards in an easy Saints win. Sitting at thirteenth among receivers with 16.7 yards per reception Evans is in a prime position to exploit the Giants weaknesses against big time receivers. Vegas’ total of 52 adds even further appeal as the line suggests there should be plenty of offensive fireworks and opportunities to rack up fantasy points for one of the leagues brightest talents.

Emmanuel Sanders ($21 Salary; 18th salary rank; 12th personal rank)

Emmanuel Sanders has a date with the San Diego Chargers in week eleven, against a defensive unit giving up fourteenth most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. The Broncos are seven point dogs in this contest signalling that Case Keenum should be forced to air it out. Despite an alarming fourteen percent dip in slot snaps in week nine (65 to 51 percent) and Daesean Hamilton looking ready to be active for week eleven, Sanders still has a plus matchup in this contest with Casey Hayward expected to be glued to number one outside receiver Courtland Sutton. As per Mike Tagliere’s primer (weekly must read) the Chargers potential slot corners have relinquished a 79.4 percent catch rate in coverage, giving Sanders significant upside even if he only sees 45-55 percent of his snaps in the slot.

Zach Ertz ($27 Salary; 2nd salary rank; 2nd personal rank)

Zach Ertz has a tough matchup this week versus a Saints defense giving up the fifth fewest points to opposing tight ends.  In a plus matchup brimming with game script appeal the Eagles enter this one as nine point dogs versus a Saints team tied for surrendering the fourth most touchdowns in the NFL with 19 and the fifth most passing yards. In terms of per game numbers the Saints have given up the fifth most passing yards per game at 311 and the seventh most touchdowns with 2.1 per game. The Saints have faced some solid tight ends this season and have limited their production tremendously but the above numbers were included to highlight Ertz’ true upside in this matchup. Ertz functions as the Eagles 1b at worst on offense and cannot really be grouped or compared to non elite tight ends who sport massive target shares. Ertz is the NFL leader with a 28.8 percent target share and is also first with a whopping 8.3 receptions per game (number two fantasy tight end Travis Kelce sees only 8.6 targets per game) and will see plenty of work as the Eagles look to keep pace with Drew Brees and the Saints.

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Ezekiel Elliott ($25 Salary; 10th salary rank; 5th personal rank)

Zeke has a tasty matchup on tap in week eleven as he squares off against an Atlanta Falcons defense giving up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing running backs. The return of Deion Jones cannot be understated for the Falcons but Zeke should still get all the touches he can handle in a game they Cowboys will look to dink and dunk in as much as possible in order to control the clock. Elliot remains the unquestioned focal point of the Dallas Cowboys offense and remains engine that makes the offensive train go. The Falcons were decimated in week ten where they allowed the talented Nick Chubb to run amuck with 176 rushing yards, 33 receiving yards and two total touchdowns providing further appeal to an already alluring DFS play.

San Diego Chargers ($12 Salary)

Case Keenum is a quarterback I target in DFS. As an opponent. Even without the looming return of stud defensive end Joey Bosa, the Chargers are a surging defensive unit worth targeting in daily fantasy. As for the Case Keenum and the Broncos, they have allowed 3.5 sacks per game over their last two contests and the Chargers have averaged three sacks over that same timespan. If Bosa makes his return the invigorated defensive front could go off for five plus sacks. If Bosa does indeed return he could see limited snaps making three sacks with a pick is looking like the floor here, regardless whether or not he plays. The Chargers stand out as one of the most attractive options this week when salary is taken into account.

Backup Plays

If Lamar Jackson does not get the start we will make two swaps.

For Jackson we will swap in Andrew Luck at $34. Luck has been on fire and is looking as matchup proof as they come with 21 touchdowns in his last six games.

For Julio Jones, who I shed explicitly to make up ground quarterback salary wise, I will swap in the massively talented Corey Davis at $16 who will continue to be a volume monster for the Tennessee Titans as they attempt to keep up with the aforementioned Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts.

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