DraftKings CFB picks November 18: Build around the SMU offense
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings CFB picks November 18: Build around the SMU offense.
We only have two games on Friday, but that’s enough for a DraftKings tournament! It’s not like this slate is devoid of talent either. We are going to have some tough decisions to make. Where can we separate ourselves? Let’s take a look!
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The week on international waters kept me off of DraftKings and out of your lives, but I am back for this week’s fun. Expect this until the end of the season, then I’ll find another season to bring you!
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DraftKings Quarterback Picks November 18
Top Tier:
It comes down to Brett Rypien or Brady White here. I’m a little nervous about each of them, and for different reasons. Rypien because New Mexico is worse against the run, and Boise may not throw all that much in a game that shouldn’t be close. White because we saw SMU handle Houston a couple of weeks ago. They are both reasonably priced though, so if I had to use one, I would go White in what should be a pretty close game.
Middle Tier:
The average on Ben Hicks is a little down due to how poorly he had played before getting benched. That seems like a lifetime ago. Hicks has at least 20 DraftKings points in four straight games. The Memphis defense gives up a ton of yards and quite a few big plays, so I like a lot of components of the SMU offense here. It starts with Hicks at a very reasonable price.
Bargain Shoppers:
The only one in this tier is Sheriron Jones. The Boise defense isn’t great, but it is good enough to keep New Mexico under wraps. Jones is still splitting time with Coltin Gerhart. Honestly, neither is a great option, and I would almost lean towards Gerhart based on his better passing ability. This is a total crapshoot either way, and nothing is guaranteed. We are probably better off taking a flier at WR than messing with this.
DraftKings Running Back Picks November 18
Top Tier:
Darrell Henderson is the highest priced RB by a long shot, and he should be. SMU’s defense has been better lately, but I don’t really see them slowing him either. Only Missouri has kept Henderson under 24 DraftKings points. He has been over 30 DraftKings points in four of the last five. It’s expected that Henderson will get us in the high 20’s, and I see nothing that says he wont. This is a great place to start your lineup.
Middle Tier:
Three of the teams in action tonight are running teams, so I fully plan on paying for running backs. Boise can do both, but New Mexico’s run defense is their sore spot, and I expect Alexander Mattison to take full advantage. I would even fade Henderson for Mattison if you want to spend big on quarterbacks instead.
Ke’Mon Freeman has racked up 61.7 DraftKings points in the last two games. And yes, SMU is still a pass first team. Freeman has sent Xavier Jones to the bench, and is primed for a huge game against Memphis at a very reasonable price. Aside from New Mexico, Memphis is the worst defense here, and this game should be somewhat close. I can’t say the same for the other.
Memphis runs the ball enough that I’m not opposed to using Patrick Taylor along with, or independent from, Henderson. Taylor has double digit touches in each of the last five games, so his workload is sufficient and isn’t going to decrease anytime soon.
Bargain Shoppers:
Yes, there is a third Memphis back that is worth our attention on a short slate. Tony Pollard is used almost exclusively in passing situations, and has feasted in this role. Pollard has at least two receptions and at least 30 receiving yards in all but one game this season. Pollard is involved heavily enough that he is a favorite value play tonight considering the game should stay pretty close.
Tyrone Owens is easily the best running back New Mexico has. If you needed further proof of this, he still wasn’t really limited even though he was clearly not 100% last week. Keep an eye on his status here. If Owens is limited at all, I want no part of him against Boise.
DraftKings Wide Receiver Picks November 18
Top Tier:
James Proche has at least 20 DraftKings points in four of the last five games. Proche has been better with Hicks back under center. This is a porous Memphis secondary, so Proche is going to get his in this game.
Damonte Coxie is about the only Memphis receiver you can really trust. The Tigers run the ball a lot, but Coxie still puts up huge numbers. He has 90.7 DraftKings points over the last three games.
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Middle Tier:
The numbers for Reggie Roberson have been almost as good as those for Proche lately. I know that SMU has been running the ball more lately, but I think this is the game where they get back to passing more just based on the weakness of the Memphis secondary. I will have a lot of SMU players in my lineup tonight.
A.J. Richardson is a more attractive option if John Hightower is out again. I’m still sticking to the feeling that I think Boise is going to run a lot more than usual. That is especially true if the are missing Hightower.
Bargain Shoppers:
If I really want exposure to the Boise passing offense, I may go with Sean Modster just because he is so cheap. $4,400 is a low price to pay for a guy who has averaged more than 15 DraftKings points per game this year.
Joey Magnifico is cheap enough that I may use him as a punt play simply because he is a target in the red zone more often than not. Still, I’m only reaching this far down if I have to. I have far more faith in the Memphis run game than passing game.
If you don’t want to play roulette with the New Mexico quarterbacks but need to save money, there is another option: Delane Hart-Johnson. Hart-Johnson has survived the revolving door at quarterback, putting up double digit DraftKings points in all but two games since week 2. For $3,300, you can do worse.
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