DraftKings NBA Picks November 16: Expect another big one from A.D.
By Mike Marteny
DraftKings NBA Picks November 16: Expect another big one from A.D.
We have an eight game Friday in our main DraftKings tournament. In a rare occasion, we don’t have anyone on a back to back tonight, but there are some teams in the first game of a back to back. Usually the Spurs are the only ones that rest players in that circumstance, but keep an eye out just in case.
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It’s night like last night that make you want to quit DFS. Almost nothing went the way it was supposed to. KD and Klay were horrific in a blowout loss to the Rockets. Cook and Harden were nearly worthless for the price as well. Trae Young was horrible. Tucker was in single digits. Gilgeous-Alexander had his worst game in a while.
The money line was a paltry 235.5 DraftKings points last night, but I only broke 200 by less than a point. I had exposure to at least one cancerous play, and there were a ton of them.
The winning lineup was easily the lowest of the season at 309.5 DraftKings points. To understand just how low that is, the cash line has been above that three times already. Bryn Forbes was his low man at 23.75 DraftKings points. This was a night where you just had to avoid awful plays. it wasn’t about value. He built around Beard and DeMar and avoided every bad play. That was more than enough.
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DraftKings NBA Point Guards:
Best Bets:
John Wall ($9,500): Wall laid an egg against Cleveland, which may throw some off the scent tonight. Not here. Brooklyn was not a good defensive team against guards even with LeVert. They may be even worse without him. The way to attack the Nets is with the point and center. Wall is going to be a strong play tonight.
Damian Lillard ($9,100): Lillard flirted with a triple double against the Lakers on Wednesday, and could have a same pursuit against the Timberwolves. Minnesota is a pretty exciting team, but they don’t really play defense. They got a couple of guys to try and change that, but neither can guard the point. Expect another strong game from Lillard here.
Honorable Mention:
Kyrie Irving ($7,700): Irving is finally to the price point where we can consider using him again. His first meeting with Toronto wasn’t a great one, but Irving was off to a slow start for obvious reasons. He has at least 39 DraftKings points in four straight and six of his last seven games. Tonight is going to be more about good picks at low ownership than anything else. Irving could provide that.
Mike Conley ($7,000): It’s nice to see a healthy Conley on the court again. He racked up 44.5 DraftKings points on the Kings the first time around. That’s not a fluke. Conley has put up at least 5x value in three straight games. The Grizz get a tempo bump playing the Kings. I would much rather pay for Conley that play roulette with Derrick Rose‘s status against a good Portland guard defense.
Eric Bledsoe ($6,800): We were pretty excited when Bledsoe landed in Milwaukee, but he never really seemed to mesh with the team for whatever reason last year. This year has been a different story. Bledsoe has four straight games with at least 34 DraftKings points including games against Denver, Golden State, and Memphis, all of whom are in the top ten in point guard defense. Bledsoe could put up big numbers against the Bulls, who have struggled defensively at nearly every position.
Dark Horses:
Spencer Dinwiddie ($5,700): Dinwiddie keeps putting up strong numbers even if he hasn’t seen much of an uptick in minutes. We know that Dinwiddie is the more efficient answer to Russell, and is a much better passer. That keeps his floor better than Russell, but Dinwiddie doesn’t have nearly the upside. I like Dinwiddie more in cash games, but this is a good enough matchup for GPP consideration as well.
Shelvin Mack ($4,200): Mack is playing the sixth man role for the Grizzlies to little fanfare, but us DFS players know who he is. Only Denver has held Mack under 20 DraftKings points this month, or in the last nine games for that matter. Sacramento isn’t going to hold him under that either. Mack is going to play around 28 minutes and get you at least 5x value if you are in the market for that sort of thing.
Ryan Arcidiacono ($4,100): Arcidiacono is probably better left for cash games, but I like my GPP punts to have a strong floor, which Arcidiacono has. In his four starts, Arcidiacono has 20.25, 24, 25.25, and 25 DraftKings points. You know exactly what you are getting. One of those games was against Boston, so I feel pretty good about using him for value in any matchup. For you riverboat gamblers, Shaq Harrison went nuts on Boston in 23 minutes off the bench. His upside is higher than Arcidiacono, but for now the minutes aren’t guaranteed.
My pick: Dinwiddie(PG); Conley(PG), Bledsoe(G), Harrison(UTIL)
DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:
Best Bets:
Victor Oladipo ($9,300): Oladipo has been even better than he was last year so far. That was on display against the Heat in the first meeting with them. Oladipo racked up 52.75 DraftKings points in that game, which was exactly a week ago. Oladipo has three straight games of more than 50 DraftKings points. He should get a fourth here, which makes him worth the price.
Zach LaVine ($7,800): I think we all kind of figured that when LaVine came back to earth, it would be with a sizeable thud. It was exacerbated by the fact that it was on a massive 11 game slate where you really need to hit every position to have any chance to cash. That will probably push a lot of people off of LaVine here, so that actually makes him a pretty interesting pick. It’s no coincidence that it was Boston that shut him down. The Celtics are tough on the perimeter. All that proved is that LaVine is not matchup proof. His matchup against Milwaukee is about in the middle of the pack, which could make LaVine worth a look at what will likely be low ownership.
Honorable Mention:
Khris Middleton ($6,900): Middleton truly is Giannis light. He can do a little of everything to help balance out his scoring, which gives Middleton a nice floor. Middleton has at least 30 DraftKings points in four of his last five and eight of his last ten games. You wont see Middleton put up big numbers with Giannis in there, but he is arguably the most consistent sidekick in the game.
Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,700): Hardaway has let DFS players down two games in a row now, which is going to drive ownership down. I will admit, I was hornswaggled by Hardaway on Wednesday, but tonight I’m seeing dollar signs in an up tempo game with the Pelicans. The Knicks are most devoid of scorers with the exception of Hardaway. Either he scores well above value tonight, or the Knicks lose by 50.
D’Angelo Russell ($6,600): As we expected, the usage on Russell was huge with LeVert out, but Russell still only played 24 minutes and missed 12 of his 18 shot attempts. The high volume is nice, the low minutes are not. Of course, Russell did have some foul trouble in this one, but that didn’t seem to be what planted him on the bench for half the game. I’m on the fence about Russell, but you could be handsomely rewarded if you take the plunge. He is going to get enough shots to make it worth your while. Whether he sinks them or not could be a different story.
Dark Horses:
Andrew Wiggins ($6,100): Wiggins got Wiggy with it on Wednesday, having one of his best games of the last two years with Butler finally jettisoned out. SG is Wiggins’ natural position anyway, so a move back there full time could help him grow into that albatross of a contract. Many are going to shy away against the Blazers, but I could see Wiggins having another strong game.
E’Twaun Moore ($5,200): Moore has set a new season high in scoring in each of the last two games, racking up 84.5 DraftKings points in the process. I expect Moore to be very chalky tonight, but if he stays hot, you’re not cashing if you fade him for a lesser option. This is one area where we are almost forced into a chalk play, even on an eight game slate.
Tyler Johnson ($4,300): You never really know what you are going to get with Johnson, but with his price this low, he is worth the punt. Johnson has at least 20 DraftKings points in five straight and eight of his last nine. One of those was against the Pacers, a game in which he hit 26 DraftKings points. that’s over 6x value, so he is a strong value play tonight.
My pick: Oladipo(SG), Johnson(G), Wiggins(SF); Moore(SG)
DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:
Best Bets:
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,500): Giannis sees red against the Bulls. He has at least 27 points against the Bulls seven times since 2016. Giannis also has at double digit rebounds three times since then and double digit assists twice. The Bulls have made a habit of playing the Bucks tough, so don’t really worry about a blowout here. This is one of the times where it looks like Giannis is a strong bet to hit value.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,000): Leonard hasn’t been all that consistent thus far for Toronto, but those of you that remember all the way back to the beginning of the season remember what Kawhi did to Boston in that game. Leonard racked up 51 DraftKings points on Boston in that game. He will need to do that again to reach cult hero status in a hockey mad city.
Honorable Mention:
Nikola Mirotic ($7,400): I do like having Mirotic eligible at SF for lineup builds tonight since there is a steep drop from the top tier at the position. The Knicks can’t guard anybody, and Mirotic has really upped his rebounding chops this year. The absence of Mirotic from the injury report should signify that he wont be limited either. Mirotic should be well worth the price tonight.
Marcus Morris ($5,800): Morris continues to put up very nice numbers in a bench role for Boston. He was held out Wednesday with the flu, so there is a chance that Morris wont be up to playing, but the Celtics could sure use him against Toronto. Keep an eye on his status leading up to tip if you plan on trying Morris here.
Jabari Parker ($5,700): This is Jabari’s return to Milwaukee, and you know how us at Fantasy CPR like revenge narratives. Parker has had some ups and downs and some inconsistency in his first season in Chicago, but he does have at least 23 DraftKings points in each of the last five games. The minutes are there. The narrative is there. Will Jabari complete the story?
Dark Horses:
Robert Covington ($5,300): I wish I wouldn’t have switched off of Covington on Wednesday. Covington put up 31.75 DraftKings points and played a staggering 41 minutes in his Minnesota debut. Welcome to life playing for Tom Thibodeau. This makes Covington a huge value play, but also one of the worst kept value play secrets in the league tonight.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,900): Aminu puts up numbers across the board, which makes him a popular DFS target since it usually means a solid floor. Aminu has also scored in double digits in each of the last three games as well. We aren’t going to see Aminu put up huge numbers with Covington on him, but another 30+ DraftKings point game is certainly a possibility.
Kyle Anderson ($4,800): Anderson continues to put up consistently strong numbers in big minutes for Memphis. He is mostly an afterthought on offense for the Grizz, but Anderson is attacking the boards and piling up assists lately. That makes him an interesting value pick in a game where Memphis will be playing much faster than they are used to.
Kevin Knox ($4,300): Knox is starting and he is cheap, which is all we ask of Wilson Chandler, right? The difference is that Knox has a lot more upside since the Knicks are just throw crap at the wall to see what will stick. Knox put up good enough numbers in his start on Wednesday to stick, and he could go even higher with the up-tempo Pelicans on the slate tonight.
My pick: Knox(F), Covington(PF); Covington(SF)
DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:
Best Bet:
Anthony Davis ($11,400): Davis has averaged 64.4 DraftKings points per game over his last four games. He’s playing the Knicks tonight. The only thing I am slightly worried about is a blowout limiting Davis’ minutes. Even then, I would still bet A.D. tops 50. Just play him. You don’t need me to tell you that.
Honorable Mention:
Julius Randle ($6,700): Foul trouble destroyed the value of Randle in a smash spot against Minnesota on Wednesday, which could leave ownership far lower than it should be tonight. Randle is going to see big minutes off the bench if he can stay out of foul trouble in this one. There is a really good chance that he does significant damage to the Knicks frontcourt.
Domantas Sabonis ($6,300): Sabonis put up 34.75 DraftKings points in the first meeting with Miami last week. He just continues to put up double doubles nearly every night even if he only plays half the game. The inconsistent minutes for Sabonis limit his upside, but more often than not, Sabonis is a very good mid range play, albeit with limited upside.
Pascal Siakam ($6,000): Siakam has six straight games with more than 28 DraftKings points, but hasn’t been over 37. This kind of consistent output is very reassuring to cash game players, but I kind find use for a sure 5-6x value in my GPP lineup as well. It hasn’t mattered whether Ibaka has played or not, or even started or not. Siakam is a steady source of value.
Dark Horses:
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($5,600): RHJ is pretty much Draymond Green without the attitude. He contributes in every category, and doesn’t mind mopping up the boards or not being involved in the offense. He also comes at a much cheaper price. RHJ is nursing a sore ankle though, so keep an eye on the status. If he plays, he warrants consideration though.
Jaren Jackson ($5,400): Jackson put up 30.75 DraftKings points on the Kings in the first meeting. Jackson has also topped that mark three times in the last six games. We have seen the kind of inconsistency you would expect from a rookie on a team full of veterans, but Jackson should get plenty of chances again tonight.
Wilson Chandler ($3,700): Chandler is starting with the price tag of an end of bench player. That kind of discrepancy alone makes him worth considering. Chandler put up 21.5 DraftKings points in 23 minutes in his first venture into the starting fold in Philly. He will never be a big part of the offense on this team, nor will Chandler play a ton of minutes. What he will do is provide great value until his price increases.
My pick: N/A; Davis(PF), Chandler(F)
DraftKings NBA Center
Best Bets:
Joel Embiid ($10,300): There is probably enough value out there to pair Embiid with Brow if you want. Embiid has turned in 60 DraftKings points in three of the last four games, and Utah has actually had trouble with opposing centers so far this year. That’s surprising considering they were in the top ten last year and didn’t really lose anything up front. At any rate, Embiid is a very strong play again and is worthy of building your lineup around.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,600): I can count the numbers of times I used KAT last year on one hand. However, his recent run sans Butler makes me think that Towns could be back on track. Towns has at least 52 DraftKings points in four of the last five games. Portland is a solid team up front, but I’m not sure it matters with the way Towns is rolling right now.
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Honorable Mention:
Rudy Gobert ($7,500): Embiid hasn’t been as much of a liability on defense this year, but he hasn’t been a rock either. Gobert has at least 30 DraftKings points in every game this year. That’s a decent floor for this price, and the upside is pretty high since I’m not sold on Embiid’s defense just yet.
Jusuf Nurkic ($7,100): The Blazers are finally giving Nurkic ample run, and – big shocker – he’s producing! Nurkic racked up 39 DraftKings points in just 22 minutes against Minnesota earlier this year. The KAT revolution has only been on offense. He still can’t defense worth a lick, so Nurkic could be in for a monster game at this price.
Willie Cauley-Stein ($6,400): WCS put up 35 DraftKings points on Memphis earlier this year. His recent run of production suggests that output is right in his wheelhouse. Cauley-Stein has at least 30 DraftKings points in eight of the last ten games, topping 35 in six of those and 40 in three of them. 5x value is pretty much a given here.
Dark Horses:
Dwight Howard ($5,700): Dust off the old relic and hit the primer button a couple of times. Howard isn’t going to dominate, but he is playing the Nets, so he could feel 27 again for one night. He may even produce like it!
Wendell Carter ($5,300): The Bulls already have nothing to play for, and they are short handed up front. Carter has put together some strong games so far, but still remains pretty inconsistent as most rookies will. Still, Carter has at least 20 DraftKings points in every game he has started. That’s good floor for a bargain play.
Mitchell Robinson ($3,800): The Knicks in their infinite wisdom have slashed the minutes of Kanter to play Robinson. Robinson has been a strong value play for DFS purposes, but the only thing he has actually helped the Knicks do is get a couple of more ping pong balls.
My pick: Towns(C), Carter(UTIL); Nurkic(C)
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