FanDuel NFL DFS: Week 11 GPP Pivots
Welcome back to the Week 11 edition of FanDuel NFL DFS Pivots! I’ve been grinding out 5-6 NBA articles a week these days but I still love writing about NFL once a week. Thanks to everyone who read last week, I had such a strong reception in the DFS community that I wanted to get back to making this a weekly column for the rest of the season. As always, I’m looking to give our loyal FantasyCPR readers some GPP pivots off the chalk for your Week 11 Fanduel NFL DFS contests!
We had some nice success last week with an Aaron Rodgers-Devante Adams stack, David Johnson, and Tyreek Hill. I hope you played some of those guys and had some solid lineups. This week looks like another great slate with some clear chalk, but some excellent pivots.
I’m going to go position by position and try to identify the chalk plays at each position and then recommend my preferred pivot. The goal here is to try to find a lower-owned play that outperforms the chalkier play, giving you leverage over the field in your GPPs.
I use a variety of sources to identify ownership, and by this point in the week we start to see the DFS community start to consolidate ownership around 2-3 plays at every position, leaving a number of solid players in good spots overlooked.
Remember, you don’t need to build an entire roster of contrarian plays! What you need to find is the low-owned player or stack that goes off and shoots you ahead of the competition. Pairing low-owned plays with chalkier plays is usually the best strategy when making those GPP builds.
Chalky plays are usually good plays, but not they fail just about as often as they succeed. NFL, like every other sport, is filled with variance and anything can happen on any given Sunday! (Imagine I read that in my Al Pacino voice!) Let’s get into the picks this week!
FanDuel NFL DFS: Quarterbacks
Chalk: Cam Newton, Drew Brees
Pivots: Ben Roethlisberger (8000), Carson Wentz (7700)
In the sake of full transparency I’ll admit that I am a Pittsburgh Steelers fan, however, I rarely use Big Ben in DFS. This is the week that I want to load up on Roethlisberger in GPPs and I think should be pretty contrarian based on his road splits and the public perception that the Jaguars defense is good. Heck, the little ranking on the FanDuel player card shows Jacksonville as the first ranked pass defense and that red should scare plenty of DFS players away.
But you and I know better. We know that Big Ben is coming off a dominant 5-TD performance against the Panthers last week. We know that the Steelers will have had 9 days off to rest and prepare for this game. We know that their offense is absolutely firing on all cylinders. And we know that the Jags defense is reeling, allowing 27 points per game and 367 yards of offense. Last year, Roethlisberger threw 5 interceptions in this matchup during the regular season, but then also threw 5 TDs against the Jags in the Steelers 45-42 loss to Jacksonville in the playoffs. I think Big Ben comes out chucking and I don’t think the Jags banged up secondary will be able to cover all of his weapons down the field.
I’m going to stay in the state of Pennsylvania here with my second pick and roll with a underpriced Carson Wentz. Wentz is sandwiched between two DFS darlings in Deshaun Watson and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Wentz saw his pass attempts climb all the way to 44 last week in a loss to Dallas and it feels like Philly is going to be in a position where they’re going to need to throw a lot this week as they face the red-hot Saints and their powerful offense this week.
The Saints have the ultimate reverse funnel defense as they rank first against the run and 31st against the pass and a lot of that probably has to do with game script as they’re opponents are forced to pass to try to score with them. Wentz has been solid but not spectacular all season and I think this could be the week he breaks out for a big 3-4 TD game and he’s certainly a threat to run one in, too, as he averages over 3 rushes per game but is without a rushing TD yet this year.
FanDuel NFL DFS: Running Backs
Chalk: Ezekiel Elliot, Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon
Pivots: David Johnson (7900), Kerryon Johnson (6200)
We’re going with a “Johnson and Johnson” theme again this week only this week it’s Kerryon instead of Duke as the cheap Johnson. I see no reason not to go right back to David Johnson, who finally broke out last week for 33.8 FD points, racking up 183 total yards and 2 TDs. He’s facing a Oakland defense that’s ranked near the bottom of the league against the run and pass-catching backs. With Arizona being a home favorite, I think it’s a great spot for DJ to get another 25-30 touches and absolutely smash this price.
Kerryon Johnson finally got 20 touches again last week and he crushed it with 89 yards and 2 TDs. It’s almost like the Lions realize that he’s their best offensive player and decided to feature him. His competition for carries LeGarrette Blount only had 6 carries and Theo Riddick caught 6 balls but no carries. Johnson’s involvement in the passing game is encouraging with 15 receptions on 19 targets over the last three weeks. Carolina’s defense has been exposed and I like the Lions to give them a good game this week. While others are rostering CMC, you could pivot to Johnson and save a ton of cap. I’d be surprised if he cracked 5% ownership.
FanDuel NFL DFS: Wide Receivers
Chalk: Julio Jones, Michael Thomas, Odell Beckham
Pivots: Keenan Allen (7600), Amari Cooper (6600), Corey Davis (6200)
If you’re playing Big Ben, then I think Antonio Brown (8500) and JuJu Smith-Schuster (7200) are both stackable and lower owned. But I want to focus on three underpriced guys who should get a ton of volume this week.
Keenan Allen has been inconsistent week to week, mainly because the Chargers offense has been so balanced with contributions from Melvin Gordon on the ground and in the air as well as more targets being spread around to Tyrell Williams and Mike Williams. But a few weeks ago, Allen complained about his diminishing role and has since had 19 targets in his last two games. He’s showing up as questionable on the injury report, but I expect him to play and I think he’ll likely go overlooked with the number of good receiving options on this slate. 7600 for a #1 WR with two TD upside is just way too cheap.
Amari Cooper has to be loving life in Dallas. He went from one of the worst teams in the AFC to a team that has a chance to contend for the playoffs in the weak NFC East. The Cowboys wasted no time getting him involved as Dak Prescott has targeted him 18 times in his first two games. He’s already scored one TD and is always a red zone threat. The matchup couldn’t be better against Atlanta’s 30th-ranked pass defense. He’s way too cheap for a guy with his projected volume and red zone opportunities.
Will Corey Davis end up chalky? When I first picked out my guys to write-up a few days ago I thought there’s no way he will, but he’s gaining some momentum this week as I’ve seen him touted a few other places. I don’t really care what his ownership is, to be honest, he’s just so underpriced for his volume and matchup. 20 targets the last two weeks and a TD last week make me feel confident that Mariota is going to continue to look for his talented young wideout against the Colts this weekend.
FanDuel NFL DFS: Tight Ends
Chalk: Zach Ertz, Austin Hooper
Pivots: Evan Engram (5800), Jonnu Smith (5300)
It’s hard to know which piece of the Giants offense to like this week, but I think Barkley and OBJ are going to be the highest owned of any of Eli’s weapons. And I would rather have someone give me papercuts on my tongue than ever roster Eli Manning in any DFS contest, so that leaves me with the Giant’s uber-talented young tight end, Evan Engram.
It’s maddening how the Giants haven’t used him more often and he’s battled injuries throughout the season. The good news is the matchup couldn’t be better as Tampa struggles to defend…well every position, but specifically they rank in the bottom 5 against tight ends. Hopefully, Eli looks for Engram often and he can get us 5-6 catches and a TD.
Jonnu Smith is a nice pivot off Corey Davis and an excellent stacking option with the very cheap Marcus Mariota. Mariota looked good the last two weeks and has found Smith for a TD in both of those games. His target volume has not been there (only 5 in 2 games) but the red-zone targets have been as he seems to be emerging as a receiver than Mariota can trust down by the goalline
FanDuel NFL DFS: Defense
Chalk: Chargers
Pivot: Redskins (3600)
I’ll just start by saying that I absolutely want some shares of the Chargers defense even if they are chalky. With Joey Bosa back, they look good and they’re at home against a struggling Broncos offensive unit. I will be using them in cash games and I think paying up for them in GPPs may actually be somewhat contrarian. But if you can’t afford them, then Washington is a great choice for a full 1000 less in cap.
I’ve been playing the ‘Skins defense for a few weeks now and while they burned me badly against Atlanta, they bounced back nicely last week and held Tampa to only 3 points while forcing 4 turnovers. I like them a lot this week against a Texans team that is struggling to protect their QB, DeShaun Watson.
I love taking defenses at home, and I think the Washington front four will get after Watson for some sacks or force him into some bad throws. The Redskins’ 10.5% adjusted sack rate is third best in the league and Watson has already thrown 7 picks and fumbled 7 times.
FanDuel NFL DFS: Sample Lineup and Slate Overview
I really love some of the builds I’ve been making with this player pool and I want to stress that you don’t need to have a low-owned player in every roster spot. Some of the names I mentioned as chalk, I will be playing alongside some of the pivots that I wrote up.
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Stacking is important in any DFS sport, but especially in NFL DFS. I try to build my QB-WR stack first in many cases and then fill in around it. If you’re good, you can build in multiple mini-stacks into the same lineup so that you have several different plays that are highly correlated.
Here’s one way to build a lineup with some of the players I wrote up. Remember that the sample lineup is purely for illustrative purposes and it’s not necessarily a plug-and-play lineup. I just like showing how the builds come together to give you an idea of how to start building yours.
QB: Ben Roethlisberger (8000)
RB: David Johnson (7900)
RB: Kerryon Johnson (6200)
WR: Antonio Brown (8500)
WR: Amari Cooper (6500)
WR: JuJu Smith-Schuster (7200)
TE: Evan Engram (5800)
FLEX: Corey Davis (6200)
DEF: Redskins (3600)
That’s all I got guys, I hope this article helps you build some GPP winners this weekend. As always, don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS with questions and comments and continue to look for in-depth NBA and NFL analysis from me and the rest of the FantasyCPR team!