Fantasy NBA Game by Game Breakdown, Friday November 16

For the first time, we’re diving into a slate that has more than four games! Tonight is eight games so let’s get right to it to break it all down!

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Fantasy NBA – Heat at Pacers

Pace Rankings – Heat at 11th, Pacers at 29th

Heat FPPM Leaders – Hassan Whiteside, Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson

I’m not sure why but it’s still weird to see the Pacers so low in pace. I guess it’s just something that I always assumed. Anyways, Whiteside would make for a very bold play tonight. Not only is he coming off a dud performance, but the Pacers allow the least DK points to opposing centers in the NBA. When everyone is healthy for Miami, they really spread the ball around. Nobody has a usage over 25.8 percent with Richardson and Dragic basically tied. The Pacers weak spot by DK points allowed is shooting guard and that puts both Richardson and Rodney McGruder on the map.

The Heat have both play that spot and while Richardson does average six more points a game, McGruder comes nearly $2,000 cheaper. On the flip side of that, Richardson does get the bulk of the minutes at the 2 when the team is at full strength. I would generally side with Richardson with the higher usage and since he leads the team in touches but keep McGruder in mind if you need someone in that range. Dragic is never really someone who generates a lot of sizzle, but he’s always reasonable and consistent.

Personal Plays – Richardson, McGruder

Players to Consider – Whiteside, Kelly Olynyk, Dragic

Pacers FPPM Leaders – Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner

If you’re spending up this evening, Oladipo has to be one of the players you consider. He leads the Pacers in touches per game and sits third in usage across the league. He just saw this Heat squad a few days ago and went over 50 DK points. He’s shooting more and hasn’t shot quite as well as last season yet so there might be even more coming for him. In addition, his assist ratio and rebounding percentage are both up so if/when the shooting comes around, Oladipo could be a $10,000 player on DK.

Sabonis is always interesting but his minutes have been down the past two games. Even at a 1.26 FPPM mark, he would have a tough time hitting 6x on 22-24 minutes. Tyreke Evans is basically in the same boat. He’s got some upside but the minutes aren’t quite there for him. Bojan Bogdanovic is almost always going to get a ton of minutes and has a solid floor. It’s just a matter if he gets any peripheral stats. Oladipo is going to be the only player I’m truly interested in as many of the other players have some reason to not play them.

Personal Plays – Oladipo

Players to Consider – Bogdanovic, Evans, Sabonis, Turner

Fantasy NBA – Jazz at 76ers

Pace Rankings – Jazz at 19th, 76ers at 9th

Jazz FPPM Leaders – Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, Donovan Mitchell

The Jazz are coming off potentially the worst loss in the NBA this year when they got utterly destroyed by the Mavericks Wednesday night. This is a pace up spot for them and Philly is allowing the seventh most points per game so there should be some fantasy production to have. Gobert draws a tough matchup against Joel Embiid. He’s only squared off against him once and only scored eight points to go along with six rebounds. Gobert is worth a look in GPP because the Jazz need him to be on the floor as much as they can against Embiid.

Favors who has been excellent this season and draws the much better spot, as the Sixers have struggled to defend the 4. That’s even worse now that they traded Robert Covington and Dario Saric so Favors is a very solid cash play this evening. The guess is Mitchell would see the defense of Ben Simmons, who is a solid defender and would leave me a little skittish about playing him but Mitchell can get hot and wreck a slate in a hurry. Philly is 23rd in points allowed so defense isn’t exactly their strong suit.

Personal Plays – Favors, Gobert in GPP

Players to Consider – Mitchell, Joe Ingles, Ricky Rubio

76ers FPPM Leaders – N/A

I’d rather not run the usage because Jimmy Butler has been there for one game and it wouldn’t be an accurate picture. Butler himself played 30+ minutes and is a little tempting here at just $7,300, which happens to be the lowest he’s been all season long. We still are very unsure of exactly how everything fits so he wouldn’t be a core play yet. Embiid had his first career triple double but that’s not exactly likely to repeat. However, Gobert hasn’t stopped opposing centers from scoring a ton of points. Getting Embiid at $10,300 might not happen very often the rest of the season. Utah allowing the ninth highest field goal percentage within five feet and Embiid has taken 111 shots from that range, shooting 62.2 percent. I’m very interested in Embiid just because the price is begging you to play him. Butler shouldn’t crush his value to the extent he’s not playable. J.J. Redick doesn’t have a great matchup but he’s been well over 30 minutes for four games straight and has shot the ball over 43 percent in all four games.

Personal Plays – Embiid, Butler, Redick

Players to Consider – Ben Simmons, Wilson Chandler as a punt

Fantasy NBA – Nets at Wizards

Pace Rankings – Nets at 24th, Wizards at 6th

Nets FPPM Leaders – Spencer Dinwiddie, Ed Davis, Shabazz Napier

D’Angelo Russell has only about 40 minutes of court time in this sample because Caris LeVert suffered an injury that will keep him out for quite awhile no the usage is without him. One of the big questions is can we go back to Dinwiddie? He actually got more minutes than D’Angelo Russell but the price tag isn’t the best. The flip side is it’s really a fantastic spot but that leads me to potentially going to Napier. For those who are new to NBA, he played on Portland last year and was typically very solid when he filled in for Damian Lillard. He received 26 minutes without LeVert and is near 1.0 FPPM and is near the minimum on DK.

Keep an eye on Ed Davis, who drew the start for Jared Allen in this past game. If Allen and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are out again, Davis is well in play against a Washington team that is last in rebounding percentage and is only getting the seventh fewest offensive boards in the league. Davis is snapping up near four offensive boards a game.

Personal Plays – Napier, Dinwiddie, Davis if others are out

Players to Consider – Russell, Joe Harris, Demarre Carroll

Wizards FPPM Leaders – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Dwight Howard

This HAS to be the spot for Dwight Howard, right? He hasn’t been as good as we’ve seen in the past and he’s slightly under 1.0 FPPM but Brooklyn is the best possible matchup for him as far as fantasy points surrendered goes. Brooklyn is 21st in rebounding percentage as it is and Howard is close to averaging a double-double already.

John Wall is really price up to a point where I’m not sure if I’ll pay for him since he would need near 60 points to pay off. At this stage, I would rather play Oladipo. What’s really intriguing is the Nets are allowing the fewest assists per game to point guards. If that trend holds, that’s really a cap on his 8.3 assists per game. I usually never pay for Beal when he’s over $8,000 and I don’t think tonight will be different. The rest of the squad carries a FPPM under 0.90 and isn’t terribly exciting unless you need a last man in.

Personal Plays – Howard, maybe Wall but he’s pricey

Players to Consider – Beal, Otto Porter

Fantasy NBA – Raptors at Celtics

Pace Rankings – Raptors at 13th, Celtics at 20th

Raptors FPPM Leaders – Kawhi Leonard, Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka

I really would tread carefully with the Raptors considering the Celtics allow the second fewest points a game on the season. Serge Ibaka is expected to suit up so that would limit some of the value for the secondary pieces of the Raptors. Kyle Lowry has been dishing the ball like crazy this season and he’s leading the league in assists per game. However, the Celtics are allowing the ninth fewest assists to point guards. To me, Kawhi Leonard is overpriced yet again. He needs 54 DK points to hit 6x and has only been over 50 three times in the past 10 games. He’s not that much further ahead in FPPM to justify that price, especially in a tough matchup. If Ibaka happens to miss, Pascal Siakim would get a bump in minutes but the FPPM basically is leveled out. Something would have to change during the day for me to run to Toronto tonight.

Personal Plays – None

Players to Consider – Leonard, Lowry, Siakim, Ibaka

Celtics FPPM Leaders – Kyrie Irving, Marcus Morris, Al Horford

The matchup isn’t terribly appealing on this side either if we’re being honest. Toronto sits just outside the top 10 in points allowed and Boston likes to spread the ball around as well. Irving is the leader in FPPM but will draw the tougher than normal defense of Kyle Lowry. There just doesn’t appear to be very many spots to pick on here unless someone sits. A player like Horford is always fine for cash because he generally has a solid floor but very limited ceiling. It’s not that I’m trying to shirt shrift this game but I think it could be one of the worst for fantasy on the slate unless players wind up being out.

Personal Plays – None

Players to Consider – Irving, Horford, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward

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Fantasy NBA – Kings at Grizzlies

Pace Rankings – Kings at 2nd, Grizzlies at 30th

Kings FPPM Leaders – De’Aron Fox, Willie Cauley-Stein, Buddy Hield/Marvin Bagley

This is quite the clash from a pace standpoint and you likely have to take a stand on which way you think the game will go. There’s an awful lot of red numbers next to the Kings since the Grizzlies play at the slower pace and they allow the fewest points in basketball. If you think the Kings can just run them out of the gym, it’s going to be a great tournament play.

One of the spots that you could potentially pick on might surprisingly be with Willie Cauley-Stein. The Grizzlies rank 29th in rebounding rate and Cauley-Stein is at a career high 8.6 boards a game. He’s basically dead even in FFPM with Fox and should be called upon to try and match as many of Marc Gasol‘s 33.9 minutes as possible. If Bagley was getting more than 20 minutes a night, I’d be happy to use him but he’s really just a bench guy in a bad spot. I probably won’t mess with the Kings in cash but if you play a lot of lineups, they could be a low owned group that puts you over the top if the exceed expectations.

Personal Plays – Fox, Cauley-Stein

Players to Consider – Heild, Bagley

Grizzlies FPPM Leaders – Marc Gasol, Mike Conley, Jaren Jackson

Of all the players in this game, Mike Conley might well be my favorite. Even if the Grizzlies bog things down, it still should be a little bit of a better game environment. The Kings are giving up the seventh most fantasy points per game He’s seen an increase in raw points, assist rate and even a little bump in rebounding percentage. The usage is approaching 30 percent and Conley is attempting over six three pointers a game. The Kings are currently facing the ninth most three point attempts a game. Conley is also in the top 20 in drives per game, which could present opportunity.

Marc Gasol has been averaging a ton of minutes and sits inside the top 15 in touches per game despite their slow pace. This type of team can only help him, especially since the Kings are just 27th in rebounding. Sacramento is in the top 12 in field goal percentage on shots nine feet or closer. Jaren Jackson has been a total roller coaster but draws an excellent spot. With the Grizzlies in a pace-up spot, I want a lot of Conley and Gasol and not much else.

Personal Plays – Gasol, Conley

Players to Consider – Jackson

Fantasy NBA – Knicks at Pelicans

Pace Rankings – Knicks at 18th, Pelicans at 4th

Knicks FPPM Leaders – Enes Kanter, Tim Hardaway Jr., Noah Vonleh

I would like to think Kanter would get some minutes in this one to try and combat Anthony Davis but that wouldn’t exactly be a plum matchup to pick on. I’d be hesitant to trust it in anything more than GPP formats. He’s been a consistent double-double threat which would be nice at his price point. Again, it’s just a matter of Davis against him.

The rest of the Knicks rotation other than Tim Hardaway is just one massive grab bag. Damyean Dotson is the minutes leader but was just pulled from the stating lineup. Kevin Knox was inserted into the starting lineup and is at 0.79 FPPM. It would probably be a reasonable thought to believe they will try to ride the rookie to see what he can do so the minutes should be in that 25-30 minute range. Hardaway looks terrible via his game log from the last two contests but they’ve also ended in blowouts. That would likely explain what he’s only taken 24 shots combined. I’m always a little skittish of playing pure scorer’s just because if a player like Hardaway doesn’t score, he’s not bringing a lot else to the table with an 11.3 assist ratio and a 5.2 rebounding percentage.

Personal Plays – Kanter, Knox

Players to Consider – Hardaway

Pelicans FPPM Leaders –(with Nikola Mirotic off the floor) Anthony Davis, Julius Randle, Jrue Holiday

The Pelicans are a team with some injury concerns for this game. Elfrid Payton is possibly going to be back for this tilt but even if he is, there’s likely going to be a minutes limit. It’s always hard to get excited for those kinds of players. Mirotic had an ankle injury and took a kick to the region nobody likes getting kicked in but did not appear on the injury report. If Mirotic were to miss, Julius Randle is near a must have even at an elevated price tag. If Mirotic and Payton are both in, Anthony Davis might be the only player I’d chase in a big way.

Here’s the issue with Davis. He’s wildly expensive(as always) and there’s significant blowout risk in this game. If you pay for Davis, there’s a legitimate chance Davis could wind up sitting towards the end. He’s one of the very best players in fantasy but it’s hard to pay off the tag in less than normal playing time. I couldn’t possibly tell you what’s gotten into E’Twaun Moore the past two games as he’s taken a massive 41 shots. That’s just not normal and I can’t pay over $5,000 for him on this slate. Holiday is also far too expensive if everyone is back in action in my eyes, but that could change if Payton is only allowed to play minimal minutes.

Personal Plays – Davis

Players to Consider – Randle, Mirotic, Moore, Holiday

Fantasy NBA – Blazers at Timberwolves

Pace Rankings – Blazers at 16th, Wolves at 7th

Blazers FPPM Leaders – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, C.J. McCollum

Fresh off putting on a show against the Lakers in his last game, Lillard should be considered one of the better options on the slate. He’s taken 65 percent of his shots from either inside five feet or from three point land. That meshes well with the Wolves giving up a top 15 percentage on inside five feet and the eighth highest percentage from three.

The Wolves also have been getting hit hard by opposing centers which will likely draw some people towards Nurkic. He crushed the Lakers on Wednesday as well with over 50 DK points and he’s seen a nice uptick in minutes the past two games. It wouldn’t be surprising to see that continue to try and counter Karl Anthony-Towns. Evan Turner could be a nice salary saver because despite his poor shooting, he’s been contributing rebounds and assists all season. If the shot starts falling, Turner could smash his price tag. C.J. McCollum can always shoot the lights out but I’m not all that interested. He’s still playing almost exclusively with Lillard which caps that upside just a bit.

Personal Plays – Lillard, Nurkic, Turner

Players to Consider – McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu

Wolves FPPM Leaders – N/A

Much like the 76ers, I’m not going to get to far into the usage here because the Wolves have a new look. Jeff Teague has been smashing everything in sight in his two games since returning from an ankle injury but he does draw the toughest matchup on paper that he could. We’ll need to see if Derrick Rose is back in action before making a determination about any point guard for the Wolves. If Rose is in along with Teague, I can’t pay $7,000 for Rose.

Andrew Wiggins is in play as well although I’m usually not one to play him. His peripheral stats have been up lately and if his shot is falling, there is ceiling there. I would definitely feel more comfortable if Rose is out. Robert Covington saw 41 minutes in his first game as a Wolf and he’s definitely in play at his price tag. He contributes through many different categories and is an excellent lineup filler. Finally, Karl-Anthony Towns is an absolute monster without Jimmy Butler on the floor this season. He’s averaging 1.55 FPPM on a 29.2 percent usage and he’s flat out more aggressive offensively. The $9,600 price is fair and Nurkic isn’t someone that would scare me off if that’s the way you want to go. The Blazers do possess the second highest rebound rate in the league but that’s something that Towns can overcome.

Personal Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns, Covington

Players to Consider – Wiggins, waiting on Rose injury situation, Teague

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Fantasy NBA – Bulls at Bucks

Pace Rankings – Bulls at 23rd, Bucks at 5th

Bulls FPPM Leaders – Zach LaVine, Wendell Carter, Jabari Parker

The largest concern in this game is blowout. The Bucks are one of the better teams in the NBA and are currently the largest favorite of the slate. If you believe the Bulls can keep it close, LaVine is under $8,000 and would almost surely have to have a big game. His volume is insane and he’s currently leading the NBA in usage so anytime a player is that “cheap”, he’s worth a look. It’s just a matter of how long this game stays competitive.

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The secondary players are a little harder to get behind for the most part but Ryan Arcidiacono has been starting for Chicago and is pretty cheap. He’s more of a stat stuffer than anything else but the issue is the Bucks are in the top half of points allowed. However, Arcidiacono would likely maintain his streak of seeing 30+ minutes even if the Bulls get worked in this game. Wendell Carter is averaging almost eight rebounds a game and Brooks Lopez isn’t rebounding at all on the other side of this matchup. It’s more of a question if Carter gets drawn away from the basket since Lopez is shooting a lot of three pointers. It’s a Jabari Parker revenge game, I guess but he’s under 0.90 FPPM so far this year.

Personal Plays – LaVine in GPP’s, Arcidiacono

Players to Consider – Carter, Parker, Cameron Payne

Bucks FPPM Leaders – Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton, Eric Bledsoe

I don’t need to talk much about Antetokounmpo as if this game stays within reach, he should totally mash. Chicago is allowing the ninth most points and sits 26th in rebounding percentage and they have nobody that has a hope of containing the Greek Freak. You just have to know that there’s a chance that he sits the fourth quarter if this game is out of hand. If you think Vegas has the 13 point spread right, look at the backups like Malcolm Brogdon(he starts but could get burn in a blowout) and maybe even Ersan Ilyasova. There’s really not a bad play from the Bucks among the big three of Greek, Middleton and Bledsoe. Even Brook Lopez is worth thinking about using. He’s basically become a three point specialist but Chicago gives up the eighth most in basketball. This could be a spot where Lopez pays off.

Personal Plays – Antetokounmpo, Middleton, Bledsoe, Brogdon, Lopez

Players to Consider – Ilyasova, Donte DiVincenco

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