NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks: 11/16/18
By Joe Metz
Find out how stacking isn’t just a preferred strategy in MLB DFS and how it can work for you in the NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks articles!
Welcome back to another edition of the NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball Stacks! After another day off with a small slate yesterday, we turn our attention to an enticing 8-game Friday night slate.
As I mentioned in my previous stacking article earlier this week, I am unable to play NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball due to job restrictions in the NBA, but I love diving deep into the data behind the matchups, making these articles extremely fun to work on.
With that being said, as a reminder, my articles this season will NOT be your typical position-by-position top play installments. Instead, I am going to highlight the best team and game stacks on the given slate. While stacking in NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball is not as popular as NFL (QB-WR) or MLB (staple cash game strategy), it can prove to be a very useful strategy if approached correctly.
11/16/2018 Slate Outlook:
Tonight should be fun. We’ve got two of the top projected teams in the East squaring off (Toronto and Boston) and another pair of potential playoff teams in the West squaring off (Portland and Minnesota). On top of that, the Brooklyn vs Washington game should provide some fireworks as both teams are rather incompetent on the defensive end, while we have the Division rivalry the Bucks and the Bulls on ESPN.
Value is going to be frustrating to come by from a stacking perspective, as a lot of the teams that offer value aren’t in the greatest of spots.
With that being said, let’s get to the top stacks to target!
NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball – Primary Game Stack: Portland Trail Blazers @ Minnesota Timberwolves
Blazers Team Ranks:
Pace: 17th (102.8 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 4th (111.7 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 7th (104.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)
I promise that I won’t just copy and paste my Blazers write-up from the last article, but they once again find themselves in a fantastic spot tonight.
Damian Lillard ($9.4k FD / $9.1k DK) went off for a near triple-double last game against the Lakers as he posted 31 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds. While he was only able to post 18 points last time out against the Wolves, he was also limited to 28 minutes, far off his season average of 34.1 per game. Plus, the Timberwolves have given up the 4th most Fanduel points per game to PGs over their last 7 games. He’s a great play across the industry.
After an early season slump, it seems like C.J. McCollum ($6.7k FD / $6.5k DK) has finally woken up. Over his last 5 games, he’s averaged 23.2 points, 3.4 rebounds, 2.8 assists and 1.6 steals per game. After losing Jimmy Butler, the Timberwolves perimeter defense took a massive hit. He also rocks a 27.9% usage rate and when you couple that with his price, he makes for an extremely safe cash play with a nice ceiling.
Jusuf Nurkic ($8.1k FD / $7.1k DK) exploded for 58.3 FDP last game with a 21-point, 14-rebound double-double in a season-high 35 minutes. He was also able to add in 7 combined steals and blocks. What’s encouraging, aside from his recent form and minutes, is the fact that he gets another matchup where he should be on the court a ton tonight. They’ll need him to counter Karl-Anthony Towns‘ size and frankly, Towns is not a good defender. He’s still too pricey for cash games on FanDuel, but he’s a great GPP play and a reasonable play in all formats on DraftKings.
Looking at cheaper plays, it’s hard to not love what Evan Turner ($4.5k FD / $4.4k DK) is doing. He’s seen at least 27 minutes in 4 straight games and while he hasn’t been a huge contributor in points, he’s topped 6 assists and 5 rebounds in 2 of his last 3 games. He’s a good bet for 25-30 fantasy points and at his salary, you’ll take that all day.
NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Timberwolves Team Ranks:
Pace: 9th (104.8 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 19th (105.5 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 29th (111.1 points allowed per 100 possessions)
If there’s anything that screams “Say hello to your new coach Tom Thibodeau”, it’s playing 41 minutes in your debut with the team. Enter Robert Covington ($6.5k FD / $5.3k DK). He was able to find a nice level of volume (11 FGAs) and contribute 7 rebounds and 3 combined steals and blocks. It’s clear that he will be heavily involved, making him far too cheap on DraftKings.
Speaking of volume, Andrew Wiggins ($6.9k FD / $6.1k DK) took 22 shot attempts last game en route to a 23 point, 6 rebound and 4 assist outing. Without Butler, Wiggins has a 26.6% usage rate and produces 1.02 fantasy points per minute. If he keeps that rate going and sees 37-38 minutes tonight like he did last game, he should be a shoo-in for 5x value as one of the best mid-tier options on the board.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10.6k FD / $9.6k DK) has been playing out of his mind lately, averaging 29.7 points, 18.7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in 37.2 minutes per game. The Blazers are a middling defense against Cs, but his sheer usage without Butler (30%+) and activity on the glass make him a great play, specifically on DraftKings.
Should Derrick Rose ($7.2k FD / $7.0k DK) sit again tonight, we can safely fire up Jeff Teague ($6.9k FD / $5.9k DK) as one of, if not the best mid-tier play on the slate. Without Rose (and Butler) last game, Teague saw 36 minutes and posted 14 points and 14 assists. That made for his second consecutive game topping 40 fantasy points as he’s averaged 19 points, 12.5 assists and 2 steals per game. If Rose does happen to suit up, there’d be too much ambiguity regarding minutes between the two to justify their prices.
NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball – Secondary Game Stack: Brooklyn Nets @ Washington Wizards
Nets Team Ranks:
Pace: 23rd (101.5 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: T11th (106.4 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 25th (108.7 points allowed per 100 possessions)
It’s rather rare that you’ll find the Nets as one of the teams to target on an 8-game slate, but when they’re in such a pace-up matchup against a bad defensive team, anything can happen.
With Caris LeVert out, we saw an interesting disbursement of his usage. We saw D’Angelo Russell ($7.2k FD / $6.6k DK) attempt a team-high18 shots (making 6), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson ($6.4k FD / $5.6k DK) and Shabazz Napier ($3.7k FD / $3.5k DK) attempt 13 each and Spencer Dinwiddie ($6.0k FD / $5.7k DK) attempt 12.
While none of the Nets saw 30 minutes in the blowout, it’s rather obvious who will see the offensive boost with LeVert sidelined. Russell, as I mentioned in my last piece, should continue to see the most volume but last game was a prime example of how unpredictable he can be. At $7.2k on FanDuel, I’ll pass for someone like CJ McCollum at a cheaper price. His price tag on DraftKings, however, makes him a reasonable mid-tier option.
Dinwiddie sees the second-highest usage rate on the team (27.8%) with LeVert out and averages 1.11 fantasy points per minute. He was able to return value last game, topping 28 fantasy points for a dirt cheap salary on DraftKings. His price on FanDuel is a bit high like Russell’s, but his DraftKings price makes him another fine option.
I assume that Rondae Hollis-Jefferson saw expanded run and usage because Jarrett Allen missed the game causing the Nets to play small-ball, so I’m not too high on him should Allen return to the floor tonight.
The surprise here was Shabazz Napier. He saw a season-high 25 minutes last game and turned that into 13 points, 2 rebounds, 2 assists and 2 steals, returning almost 9x value. He has a 24.7% usage rate with LeVert off of the court and averages a shade under a fantasy point per minute (0.98), making him one of the top value plays on the slate. He should carry heavy ownership across all sites and formats tonight.
NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball: Wizards Team Ranks:
Pace: 7th (105.1 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: T13th (105.9 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 26th (109.8 points allowed per 100 possessions)
What a mess the Washington Wizards have been. After starting the season 1-7, they’ve won 4 of their last 6 games and seem to be finding their groove, starting with John Wall ($10.2k FD / $9.5k DK). He has all three of his double-doubles in his last 5 games and is averaging 20.8 points, 10 assists, 4.4 rebounds and 2.8 combined steals/blocks. His last game against Cleveland was a total dud but he still posted 33.5 FanDuel points in 21 minutes (1.6 fantasy points per minute). The Nets have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points per game to PGs over their last 7 games (51.06) and Wall clocks in as my top overall play on DraftKings and a top 3 stud on FanDuel tonight.
Bradley Beal ($8.8k FD / $8.1k DK) can be a frustrating player to roster due to his reliance on scoring, but he has yet to score less than 17 points in a game this season and has actually started contributing in peripheral categories more consistently. He rocks a 28.8% usage rate, less than 1% behind Wall for the team lead and averages 1.14 fantasy points per minute. If this game stays close, we could see one of the Beal blow-up games. He’s a better play on DraftKings than FanDuel, but makes for a great GPP option across the board.
The small forward carousel of Otto Porter ($5.8k FD / $5.2k DK), Kelly Oubre ($4.2k FD / $4.1k DK) and Jeff Green (4.3k FD / $4.3k DK) has caused more than enough headaches as of late, but has also provided some nice value. Porter is the one I would avoid here, as his minutes and usage are not close to consistent enough to rely on. If choosing one, I would have to recommend Jeff Green based off of recent form. He’s played at least 20 minutes in four straight games, averaging over a fantasy point per minute in that span and averaging 14.8 points and 5.5 rebounds. Should Markieff Morris sit again, we could once again see an expanded role for Green.
Dwight Howard ($7.0k FD / $5.7k DK) has been impossible to trust this season, but any time you have a center against Brooklyn, they deserve consideration. The Nets have allowed the most FanDuel points per game to opposing centers (65.11) and could have problems with Dwight Howard tonight. $7.0k on FanDuel is WAY too much to pay for his inconsistency, but frankly I think he’s an awesome play on DraftKings for $1,300 less. If Jarrett Allen SITS, however, I would likely get off of Howard assuming the Wizards would match the small ball approach of the Nets.
NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball – Top Value Stack: Miami Heat (vs IND)
Heat Team Ranks:
Pace: 12th (104.6 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 20th (105.1 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 17th (106.4 points allowed per 100 possessions)
The value is few and far between tonight, making the Heat once against a de facto option. Mose from The Office..errr, I mean Tyler Johnson ($4.7k FD / $4.3k DK) is fresh off of his best game of the season after posting 24 points and 5 rebounds in 30 minutes against the Nets. This was also a game in which Goran Dragic was completely healthy. He’s seen at least 30 minutes in 4 of his last 5 games and should be a popular value option tonight.
Rodney McGruder ($4.6k FD / $4.8k DK) saw another 33 minutes last game, his highest total in the last 3 games. With Dion Waiters and Dwyane Wade still inactive, we could see him stick around this number tonight. While he’s cooled down considerably since the start of the season, he’s already displayed his 40+ point upside and a relative floor of 20, making him a safe cash option. The return of Wayne Ellington ($3.8k FD / $3.8k DK) is what has really hampered his production.
Ellington has seen at least 26 minutes in 4 of his last 5 games and has topped 21 FanDuel points in 3 of those 5. While that doesn’t sound impressive, that’s still 5.5x value at his current salary. He could be another popular punt option tonight on FanDuel with the burner rule.
NBA Daily Fantasy Basketball – Secondary Value Stack: Memphis Grizzlies
Grizzlies Team Ranks:
Pace: 30th (98.0 possessions per game)
Offensive Efficiency: 21st (104.0 points per 100 possessions)
Defensive Efficiency: 4th (103.1 points allowed per 10 possessions)
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, the Memphis Grizzlies are the least sexy team to roster and root for, but the value is always there.
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Shelvin Mack ($4.8k FD / $4.2k DK) has quietly put together a stellar campaign thus far as the backup PG, having topped 20 FanDuel points in 8 of his last 9 games. He’s seen at least 28 minutes in Memphis’ last 3 games, averaging 12 points, 4.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists with 1.7 steals in that span. In a pace up game against the Kings, we could see similar production tonight.
Opposite of Mack, Kyle Anderson ($5.9k FD / $4.8k DK) has had arguably a slower start to the season than anyone in the NBA. He has, however, picked things up as of late. He’s seen 32.6 minutes per game over the last 10 days (up from 28.1 on the season) and has raised his FG% 5.8% over that span (47.7%). He’s posted 13 rebounds in 2 of his last 3 and should be in line for a productive outing against the fast-paced Kings tonight. He’s a great play on DraftKings at a reduced price and a fine mid tier play on FanDuel, but his ceiling is rather capped with his heightened price tag.
Garrett Temple ($4.6k FD / $4,0k DK) is a player I will continue to write up as a value as long as he continues to get minutes in the mid-to-high 30s. He saw 38 minutes last game and has topped 34+ in his last 3. His scoring has been erratic to say the least, but he’s topped 20 fantasy points in 6 of his last 6 of his last 9 games. That’s 5x exactly on DraftKings, making him a viable value play if you want to dip that low.
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