NBA DFS Picks and Pivots – Friday November 16

Welcome to the Friday edition of NBA DFS Picks and Pivots, a fantasy basketball column focused on helping you find the best core lineup for this slate of DFS action!

For those of you finding us for the first time, the concept behind NBA DFS Picks and Pivots is to give you a first look at the day’s NBA DFS slate, including our top picks, plays and pivots, using FantasyDraft pricing as a reference to help you build your best fantasy basketball line-up and win big.

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate.

Last night’s three game NBA DFS slate ended with winning GPP scores well below 300 as we had a sloppy game in Houston and a blowout in Denver which took the ceiling away from the top plays and highest owned studs of the night. DeMar Derozan was the top scorer on the night as the only player to eclipse 50 fantasy points on the entire slate!

Picks and Pivots is not a simple “best plays” column but rather it focuses on slate strategy and roster construction to help give you insight into how I will look to play this slate. The goal of this article is to dig through the slate, highlight our top plays and help you identify the best slate strategy across your NBA DFS line-ups.

If you are looking to try out a new DFS site, head on over to FantasyDraft and enter my referral code for 10% rake back on your entries.

As always, we will look to update our final lineup thoughts throughout the day on our twitter account @FantasyCPR so make sure to give us a follow for all the late breaking lineup news.

Without further ado, let’s get into today’s slate!

NBA DFS – Eight Game Slate:

For those of you who may be new to Picks and Pivots, my goal in these articles is to give you a first look and my initial reactions to a slate when I first dig into it. At first glance on this slate, what really stuck out to me is that only half of the games on this 8 game slate have totals of 220 or higher and we have some serious blowout concerns in the two highest projected scoring games (NO/NY and CHI/MIL) with double-digit spreads.

The game that really intrigues me as a core build tonight is the Sixers-Jazz as we get two teams and a handful of core stars that may people may be a bit wary of using quite yet.

On the Philadelphia side, most folks on the big 11 game Wednesday slate took a wait and see approach to Jimmy Butler ($13.7K) in his new role with the Sixers before investing in him and the other Sixers studs. Tonight what really stood out to me on FantasyDraft is how the prices have dropped substantially on the core stars for Philadelphia with Butler, Embiid and Simmons all seeing $1K price drops tonight.

If we dig into the Sixers last game against Orlando we can take away a few things. First, Joel Embiid ($18.3K) is still the top dog here with a 33% usage rate while putting up over 1.5 FP/M on his way to a triple-double (19 points, 13 rebounds and 10 assists).

Ben Simmons ($15.1K) really took a backseat in this one, with his usage dropping from 21% all the way down to 13% while only putting up .74 FP/M which is a substantial drop from his season long mark of 1.24 FP/M. Butler saw an even bigger drop in his production with only .64 FP/M and 21.1% usage which is nearly half his fantasy output on a per minute basis.

Now, everyone expects there to be a usage hit to these guys – to me its the same thing we see in Golden State, when everyone is healthy it just becomes impossible for all the stars to smash – there is only one ball. But here is the thing – the price points are coming down on these guys and if you look at the game flow, the Sixers ran a really right core with 4 of their 5 starters playing 30+ minutes.

I think there are a few changes we will see and it could start tonight. Let’s start with something that is far from analytical but I believe truly matters – that last game was in Orlando – tonight is the first time Butler gets to take the court in Philly – you don’t think the Sixers will make a concerted effort to show off their new star?

Secondly, can we really expect JJ Redick to dominate the usage on this first time like he did last game with a 25.1% usage rate and 1.1 FP/M? At some point Redick will go back to a secondary piece in this loaded line-up and when he does – that usage and those shot attempts are going to funnel to Butler and Simmons. This Sixers trio of Simmons-Embiid-Butler will cost you under $16K per player on FantasyDraft which is a reasonable price to pay for such guaranteed usage and minutes. My guess is most will continue to take a wait and see approach here, but I think the price drop makes them plays to jump on right away.

NBA DFS – Run it back with the Jazz:

After putting up 68 – yes you read that right – SIXTY EIGHT points against the Mavericks last game out, do you really think the Jazz are going to be a team on most people’s radar? What is really interesting about Utah right now is that they have been among some of the worst teams in the NBA in defense, ranking 25th in defensive rating over the last 5 games which is a far cry from the team who lead the league a season ago.

The truth is, this Jazz team is still a very good basketball team with the exact same core from a season ago, and I believe that those humiliating losses can very quickly turn a team’s season around. Look at Utah last season, they got waxed by Atlanta by 24 in mid-January and then turned around to win 13 straight.

This Utah team is the some one that just scored 123 points against the Celtics just two games prior to their debacle so let’s not pretend all of a sudden this Utah team is a stay away especially when you consider that this is a massive pace up spot for them. The Jazz get one of the largest pace boosts on the slate, taking on a Philly team that has run at the 8th fastest pace in the NBA and much like the Sixers, this is a Utah Jazz team that plays their core starters routinely 30+ minutes a night.

The Jazz are quite affordable as well with Donovan Mitchell ($13.5K) and Rudy Gobert ($13.4K) being the most expensive investments while guys like Ricky Rubio and Joe Ingles sit just above $11K.

Look back at that Boston game as an example of how this core four can all get there in the same game as Ingles (50), Gobert (44), Rubio (33) and Mitchell (33) all provided strong fantasy games without overly compromising the others.

Listen, you can cherry pick game logs to make whatever point you want and you can easily look at the Dallas or Memphis game logs and argue this team is a mess and you would not be wrong. What draws me here tonight is that I believe in the talent of Utah to keep this game close, and Vegas seems to agree with a 3 point spread, and you are getting two teams in this game that rely heavily on a core group of players to play the bulk of the minutes which is exactly what you want in a game stack environment.

NBA DFS – Value Plays and Pivots:

Brooklyn was a team that I, and many others, landed on last slate for some value with the injury to Caris Levert and true to Brooklyn form, they played everyone 20-25 minutes and basically none of the “key guys” you likely rosters were able to provide much fantasy value.

Here is the thing – the Nets go from a tough(er) defensive match-up with Miami to now playing the Washington Wizards who rank 27th in the NBA in defensive rating. Add on the fact that two key front-court players in Jarrett Allen and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are questionable and all of a sudden the Nets become a very viable value option on this slate.

The most expensive player on the Nets is D’Angelo Russell ($12.5K) who still managed to put up a FP/M in only 23 minutes of court time against Miami, leading the team with 18 FGA in this game. Dig deeper into that game and you will see D-Russ has a massive 39% usage rate in that game – this is what you are targeting if you play him tonight. If Russell gets the minutes, the usage will be there and the ceiling is 40-50 FPTS easy. The floor is also super low so I would only go here in GPP’s but I cannot avoid the usage and production he has against a poor defense.

Allen Crabbe entered the starting line-up with Levert sidelined alongside Jared Dudley ($6.1K) who continues to get the starting nod and meaningful minutes at near minimum price. The Jared Dudley DFS experience is never enjoyable, but when you have a guy who is playing 24+ a night as he has in 4 of his last five games and has gone for 3.6x value in his last two games with Allen out – it becomes hard to ignore the punt potential here.

If Allen and RHJ miss, it could mean DeMarre Carroll ($7.7K) gets a massive amount of run and after seeing his minutes ramp up from 23 to 27 last game, there is the potential for 30 minutes of court time here with the injuries to the Nets front court. Sure you can play Ed Davis I suppose – but I am not sure I want to pay $800 more him than Carroll who averaged 1.15 FP/M against the Wizards in 90 minutes of court time last season for Brooklyn.

NBA DFS – Sample Lineup and Slate Overview:

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 G: Ben Simmons 

G: Jimmy Butler

G: Donovan Mitchell

F/C: Joel Embiid

F/C: Rudy Gobert 

F/C: Jared Dudley

UTIL: D’Angelo Russell

UTIL: DeMarree Carroll

Slate Overview: Looking at this slate, my guess is the New Orleans-New York game will be a popular stack with the high total and pace but I just think this is a stay away spot right now and that is coming from the THJ fan club president. This Knicks team has been blown out in three straight, the starting line-up is consistently in flux and the Pelicans are getting back to full health with Elf Payton likely returning tonight. With this game in New Orleans, I would rather pivot elsewhere and my initial take is that Philly/Utah is the place to go with a high total and close spread and a clear core of guys who will soak up all the usage and minutes. Keep a close eye on the Brooklyn news as I think this is where we get a ton of our value from on the slate. Good luck and enjoy your Friday!

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