College Football picks against the spread November 17, 2018

It’s that time of week again! Time for a big college football Saturday with 53 games here. We had eight prior to Saturday, which means that we had 61 total games this week for the third straight week.

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We have to navigate cupcake week in the SEC, which is never fun to pick. There are some monster spreads out there, which makes this an inherently tough week, but there is still money to be made.

For those of you that are new to this, I pick every college football game every week. Not a top five. Not a top ten. All of them. Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread! I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other football.

I also assign a point value based on the confidence I have in each pick. 1 means that I have little to no confidence. 5 is one I would place a decent wager on. I keep track of my record and my points back from year to year. I went 400-75 last season and ended up with 31 points in my point bank. I am aiming for 55% this year. It’s harder than it looks! My best week of the season puts me back above .500 on the season at 305-290. I also had my biggest point gain in a single week since I’ve been assigning points with 49 last week. I not have 25 on the season and 56 in my point bank overall.

As we all well know, this is not an exact science. Due to the volatile nature of betting in general, this is for entertainment purposes only! I cannot be responsible for the loss of money, possessions, spouses, or limbs because of my picks. I can’t have that on my conscious.

Without further delay, we get to the meat of week 12!

(10)Ohio State(-14.5) at Maryland(2):

I don’t like the half, and I like it even less with the way the Ohio State passing game is going. Then there is also the whole looking ahead to Michigan thing. Oh, and it’s a road game. Anything else we want to put against the Buckeyes? No? Good. Give me Ohio State anyway.

(14)Penn State(-27.5) at Rutgers(2):

Rutgers may at well be a FCS team. Still, I don’t see Penn State keeping their foot on the gas enough to cover this. Give me Rutgers.

Middle Tennessee State at (17)Kentucky(-16.5)(3):

I guarantee you the Blue Raiders are a tougher opponent that Rutgers. Still, this looks high. Kentucky thrives on defense and a strong run game. I don’t think Snell covers this by himself, so give me MTSU.

Arkansas at (21)Mississippi State(-21.5)(3):

Not every SEC team has a cupcake this week, though Arkansas is pretty far from a good team. The Piggies are going to feel like a cupcake coming off of Alabama, but I think Arkansas gained a lot of confidence last week against LSU. That’s huge for a young team. Bulldogs win, but don’t cover.

(22)Northwestern at Minnesota(-2.5)(2):

This line opened with Northwestern favored, but took a sharp turn. Personally, I find it really difficult to put any sort of trust in Minnesota. They have been at both ends of the spectrum over the course of the last two weeks. Northwestern straight up.

South Florida at Temple(-13.5)(4):

Ryquell Armstead is going to take over this game just like he did last week. Temple wins BIG.

Michigan State at Nebraska(EVEN)(2):

Nebraska’s defense is terrible, but I think that Michigan State’s offense is worse than Nebraska’s defense. I can’t point to any one reason Nebraska will win if Michigan State shuts them down. The Cornhuskers aren’t particularly disciplined and they aren’t great on special teams. Still, I think Nebraska gets loose once, and that will be enough. I’ll go Nebraska at home.

TCU at Baylor(EVEN)(3):

I have no faith in the TCU offense, and little faith in their defense after the way West Virginia dismantled them. I do think this game stays close, but Baylor has some serious athletes at the skill positions. That will be the difference. Give me the Bears.

Pittsburgh(-6.5) at Wake Forest(2):

This line is up over 7 in some spots and still as low as 5.5 in others. I understand the fluctuation. Wake played a strong game against North Carolina State last week. I don’t have a lot of faith in the Wake defense, but I think their receivers are going to give Pitt a lot of problems. I like Wake straight up.

North Carolina State(-15.5) at Louisville(5):

This is free money. Only the awful Seminoles have failed to cover Louisville this year. The Cardinals are 1-9 against the spread. NC State could win by double this.

(19)Utah(-7.5) at Colorado(2):

This is tough since that Utah offense is reeling, but I still don’t see where Colorado has the athletes to take the top off of this defense like Arizona State did. Utah was actually better without Huntley last week. That should hold true again. I don’t like the half, but I will just lower the bet a little. I still like Utah here.

(23)Utah State(-28.5) at Colorado State(4):

The Rams may have the worst defense in the Mountain West, and this is definitely the best offense in the conference. Until someone proves they can slow the Aggies, I’ll keep taking them with confidence.

Florida International(-5.5) at Charlotte(1):

The Panthers waxed UTSA in the Alamodome last weekend. Is Charlotte that much better than UTSA? I don’t know. I think I have to go with FIU here, ending my Charlotte streak at four weeks.

(12)Syracuse vs. (3)Notre Dame(-9.5) at Yankee Stadium(3):

This is too many. The Irish have had the good fortune of facing underachieving Florida State and Navy teams along with an inept Northwestern offense over the last month since nearly losing to Pitt. Syracuse easily has the best offense Notre Dame has faced this year, and they have struggled with teams that can throw deep. I still like the Orange straight up.

Georgia State at Appalachian State(-28.5)(1):

Wow, that’s a lot. Give me Georgia State, I guess. Maybe because of that half.

UTSA at Marshall(-27.5)(3):

Considering the Herd just beat a pretty good Charlotte team by close to this, and FIU destroyed the Roadrunners at home, I will say this looks low. Give me Marshall.

Louisiana-Monroe at Arkansas State(-7.5)(2):

If Justice Hansen plays like he did last week, the Red Wolves will cover this easily. That’s a big if though. I’ll take the plunge. Give me Arkansas State.

Nevada(-14.5) at San Jose State(3):

This looks low. Nevada decimated Colorado State last week. This offense is humming right now, and the Spartan defense doesn’t scare me one bit. Give me the Wolfpack.

(9)West Virginia(-6.5) at Oklahoma State(3):

Oklahoma State is getting too much credit for gaining a bunch of yards on a bad defense. I think West Virginia makes a statement here. Give me the MountainGriers.

(20)Boston College at Florida State(-1.5)(5):

Well this is bogus. I don’t much care if Anthony Brown plays because AJ Dillon is healthy. Clemson’s defense made an average offense look putrid. Boston College’s strong defense will make the bad Florida State offense look the same. BC straight up.

Tulsa at Navy(-5.5)(3):

This looks backwards. I love it when a name gets credit just for being a name *ahem….Florida State* The same is happening here. Tulsa straight up.

Texas State at Troy(-22.5)(3):

The Bobcats have been absolutely awful on the road. Give me Troy.

Louisiana Tech at Southern Mississippi(EVEN)(1):

I think this is going to be a great game. The line is all over the place. It is only even at one spot, and is as high as -2.5 either way at a few casinos. The consensus is one side by 1.5. That gives me all the reason I need to put the minimum on this and just watch an entertaining football game. I’ll take Louisiana Tech though. They have the better overall body of work.

Wisconsin at Purdue(-4.5)(2):

Surprisingly enough, Wisconsin is actually worse off without Alex Hornibrook. They are likely going to be without his services here as well. That said, we saw a Minnesota defense just dominate this Purdue offense, and they aren’t a good defensive team. Wisconsin is. Jonathan Taylor could bring this home on his own. I’ll go Wisconsin. I’m not sure they win, but this is going to be really close.

Bowling Green at Akron(-6.5)(3):

I’m glad the half is on this side because I think the Zips win by about a touchdown. Give me Akron.

Virginia at Georgia Tech(-5.5)(2):

This is a good Virginia defense. I think they will be able to contain a one dimensional offense. I still like the Hoos straight up.

Miami(FL)(-6.5) at Virginia Tech(2):

That’s an ominous sign when the Hokies are touchdown dogs at home to a reeling Miami team. Both of these teams are playing terrible football right now. This line has climbed three points already, and it will likely climb more before kickoff. The Hokie D can’t stop anyone. Miami can exclusively run the ball and cover this. Lost in Miami’s recent horrible stretch is the fact that their defense has remained pretty solid. I think I have to go with Miami here.

Texas Tech(-6.5) at Kansas State(5):

This is too low. Tech by double digits. This K-State defense has surrendered a ton of big plays through the air this year.

Iowa(-14.5) at Illinois(2):

Wow, I really don’t like that half. However, Illinois has been the benefactor of facing two poor run defenses in a row. Their offense really isn’t that good. Give me Iowa.

Missouri(-6.5) at Tennessee(2):

This has the look of a trap game for Missouri. Tennessee is looking to become bowl eligible here, and the Missouri defense really isn’t very good. However, I think the Missouri offense has the wild card here in Emmanuel Hall. That and the running game is much improved over the last few weeks. I’m still taking Missouri.

USC(-3.5) at UCLA(2):

I expect a good game here. Maybe not good football, but a good game. To me, UCLA looks like the better team right now. I’ll take the Bruins straight up.

Indiana at (4)Michigan(-28.5)(2):

This is too many. First off, Michigan may be looking ahead to Ohio State. Second, even if they aren’t, the Wolverines are going to be more worried about keeping their starters fresh and healthy than with style points. Michigan wins in convincing fashion, but doesn’t cover.

Massachusetts at (5)Georgia(-41.5)(1):

Ugh. Really? Come on…this is just ridiculous. I have to say too many, right? Right? Yeah….probably. Eh…..give me UMass, but this is going to be ugly. Just not that ugly.

Liberty at Auburn(-28.5)(1):

I have no faith in the Auburn offense. Or in Liberty, for that matter. The biggest thing for the SEC this weekend is just to get out unscathed. I’ll go Liberty. Personally, I would rather watch Liberty play UMass and Georgia play Auburn again. Those I could pick!

Air Force at Wyoming(-2.5)(4):

What has Wyoming done to earn this kind of respect? Nothing! The altitude wont matter all that much to a team that plays in Colorado Springs anyway. Air Force straight up.

Oregon State at (18)Washington(-33.5)(4):

Why don’t you try selling some oceanfront property in Vegas while you’re at it guys! I know Oregon State is bad, but come on. This Washington offense has only scored 34 points twice this season. It was against BYU before the offense took off and against North Dakota. No way Washington covers this. Give me Oregon State. North Dakota was the only team Washington beat by more than 30.

Georgia Southern(-6.5) at Coastal Carolina(1):

I don’t really know if GSU is two touchdowns better than the Water Roosters on a neutral site. I’ll go with CCU.

South Alabama at Louisiana(-17.5)(2):

I don’t like that half, but I also don’t see a scenario where the Jags stick around. Give me Louisiana.

Duke at (2)Clemson(-28.5)(3):

I get it. I really do. Clemson’s dominant defensive performance last week actually has people questioning if they can hang with Alabama. But seriously, Duke is not a bad team. They have a solid defense. Clemson’s D is going to dominate this game again, but I don’t see Clemson winning by 30. Give me Duke.

Connecticut at East Carolina(-16.5)(3):

This actually looks low to me. The ECU offense has things figured out, and UConn is in the running for the worst defense in FBS. Give me the Pirates.

UAB at Texas A&M(-16.5)(2):

UAB is a nine win team, people. Of course, they have never played in front of a crowd like the one at Kyle Field. I see the Blazers hanging around for a while, but A&M ultimately has too many athletes. I’ll go A&M.

Kansas at (6)Oklahoma(-34.5)(2):

Oklahoma’s defense still isn’t good, but the Kansas team thrives on taking the ball away. The Oklahoma offense just doesn’t turn the ball over very often. I don’t know if Kansas can force an Oklahoma punt, so I’ll take the Sooners. UPDATE 2:35pm eastern Saturday: A couple of early beers have me coming to my senses. I’m flipping to Kansas because I know how bad our defense is.

Rice at (7)LSU(-42.5)(3):

Come on now. LSU isn’t going to score 42 points. This is too many. LSU might win 35-0, but they will let off and let the third string play at some point.

Mississippi at Vanderbilt(-2.5)(2):

Ole Miss has struggled lately, and Vanderbilt likes to run the ball. We saw Trayveon Williams go berserk on the Land Sharks last week. Ke’Shawn Vaughn will have every chance to do the same. Give me Vandy.

UTEP at Western Kentucky(-6.5)(3):

UTEP isn’t good, but Western Kentucky hasn’t been either. Still, as bad as the Hilltoppers have been, they haven’t been UTEP bad. And they are at home. Give me WKU.

(24)Cincinnati at (11)Central Florida(-7.5)(3):

I was really hoping this line would be double digits so I could go with a big bet here. I don’t see UCF winning by two scores. Honestly, I don’t see them winning at all. I still like Cincinnati straight up because of that defense.

(16)Iowa State at (15)Texas(-2.5)(3):

I really don’t like the fact that David Montgomery is out of this game. However, Iowa State wasn’t going to win this game by running the ball. If we learned anything from Texas Tech last week it’s that you can just throw all over this team and let the chips fall where they may. Iowa State has a good quarterback and some very good receivers. They aren’t the monsters that Texas Tech’s are, but they are plenty good enough to get behind the Texas D. Iowa State straight up.

New Mexico State at BYU(-24.5)(2):

I can’t find it in myself to take the Aggies for anything. Give me BYU.

Arizona at (8)Washington State(-10.5)(3):

Nope, I still don’t see a defense than can stop this passing attack. Give me the Cougars.

San Diego State at Fresno State(-13.5)(2):

The Aztecs may be playing like total garbage right now, but they are still going to ugly this game up with tough defense and 60 running plays. That’s not conducive to the Bulldogs getting out there and running away with this. I’m done with San Diego State, so I’m taking Fresno, but I am going to lower the bet just in case.

Arizona State at Oregon(-3.5)(3):

Let’s recap here. Arizona State beat a Utah team – badly – that Oregon just lost to last week. Sun Devils straight up.

UNLV at Hawaii(-6.5)(4):

Nope. UNLV beat the Aztecs straight up last week. They can handle Hawaii. Lexington Thomas is going to have a huge game. UNLV straight up.

The postponement of the Cal-Stanford game due to wildfires has us at 60 games this week. I went lower on points due to a ton of huge lines. I still only had seven one point games, but I have 23 two pointers and 20 three pointers. Seven four pointers is a modest total, but I only have three five point bets this week, the fewest I’ve had since week 6.