DraftKings CFB Late picks November 17: Attack the weak defenses

CINCINNATI, OH – DECEMBER 03: Moe Petrus #57 of the Connecticut Huskies prepares to snap the football during a play against the Cincinnati Bearcats on December 3, 2011 at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The Bearcats defeated the Connecticut Huskies 35-27. (Photo by Tyler Barrick/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Late CFB picks November 17: Attack the weak defenses

Our night selection on DraftKings has six games with Cal and Stanford being pushed back to December 1st because of the wildfires. There are two Big 12(10) games that are going to account for a lot of the offense on this slate, but if you want to use the big names from those games, we are going to have to dig for some value. I’ve got a few ideas for you.

DraftKings Quarterback Picks November 17

Top Tier:

Kyler Murray is the clear top option here. Kansas’ defense has struggled, but has thrived on creating turnovers. Oklahoma doesn’t turn the ball over, so this offense is going to be free to shred the Kansas defense. McKenzie Milton is the only other elite priced QB, and there is no way I’m using him against the stout Cincinnati D. If you paying up for a quarterback, it should be Murray.

Middle Tier:

Sam Ehlinger continues to put up strong numbers since his return, racking up 109.26 DraftKings points in three games since leaving the Baylor game and missing the next week. Iowa State’s run defense is much better than the pass defense, so I’m not opposed to using Ehlinger here. Texas is going to have to throw in this one, and their receivers are going to give Iowa State problems.

Vanderbilt’s defense isn’t quite as good as it looks on paper, but I’m not wild about Jordan Ta’amu if his ankle isn’t 100% healthy. I’m also not all that crazy about Trevor Lawrence against a veteran Duke defense. The obvious pivot here is to Kellen Mond since UAB’s numbers are skewed by inferior competition. I expect to see Mond somewhere in the low 20’s for DraftKings points, so that should put him at about 3x value.

Bargain Shoppers:

The Texas defense has been ripped up the last few weeks, but few have noticed since the Longhorns keep winning. This is the perfect spot for Brock Purdy. His price is reasonable, and he is actually my second favorite QB on this slate. Texas is going to give up a ton of yards through the air in this one, and Purdy is going to reap the rewards.

Desmond Ridder looks really good for the price as well since the struggles of the UCF defense are much publicized (by me anyway). Ridder has at least 20 DraftKings points in three straight games, and he has a legitimate shot at 30 here.

Tyler Johnston is a nice place to look for value here. A&M’s defense is pretty good, but I think UAB is going to have to throw to keep this interesting. This is a GPP only dart, but it’s a pretty well aimed one. I would rather use Johnston at super flex than a backup RB or a third receiver. I also really think that Peyton Bender is going to be lost in the shuffle against a bad Oklahoma defense. There is potential there as well, but I don’t think Kansas has the receivers for Bender to reach the upside here.

COLUMBIA, SC – OCTOBER 13: Trayveon Williams #5 of the Texas A&M Aggies runs with the ball against the South Carolina Gamecocks during their game at Williams-Brice Stadium on October 13, 2018 in Columbia, South Carolina. (Photo by Streeter Lecka/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Running Back Picks November 17

Top Tier:

Travis Etienne is the highest priced running back with good reason. Most of the chunk plays Duke has given up have been on the ground, and the Tigers have shown they will run Etienne as much as he can handle it. Trey Sermon is a good option as well, but the Oklahoma backfield is loaded. Etienne is a much safer play.

Trayveon Williams has 80.5 DraftKings points in his last two games, and one of those was against a pretty good Auburn defense. UAB’s front doesn’t scare me at all. I wouldn’t be shocked if Williams outscored all running backs on this slate. Ke’Shawn Vaughn get the same Ole Miss team that Williams went over 200 on last week, so he is worth a look as well.

Middle Tier:

Oklahoma’s run defense isn’t really the problem, but I still see a solid game from Pooka Williams, especially since he isn’t all that expensive. I prefer Pooka over David Montgomery against Texas.

I find myself leaning more towards Kennedy Brooks over Sermon again. Brooks is the more explosive of the two, and Oklahoma is going to have plenty of room to run in this one. The only thing that worries me a little is if the game gets out of hand and Oklahoma goes further down the depth chart instead of letting Brooks rack up carries.

Michael Warren is enough of a factor out of the backfield to consider against UCF here. UCF has a pretty good run defense, but Warren has at least two catches in all but one game over the last two months. He isn’t going to have a huge game like he did against South Florida, but Warren provides a more solid alternative to Brooks.

Bargain Shoppers:

Isaiah Woullard is an interesting play if Scottie Phillips is out. Phillips gave it a go against A&M, but was nowhere near 100%. I kind of think Ole Miss will hold him out here so he is completely healthy for the Egg Bowl, which is their bowl game. That would make Woullard a feature back at a low price, and worth a look even against a decent Vanderbilt front.

Khari Blasingame is worth a GPP dart since he is also involved in the passing game more than Vaughn is. However, this is a sizeable risk since Blasingame often struggles to get ten touches per game.

LAWRENCE, KS – NOVEMBER 3: Wide receiver Hakeem Butler #18 of the Iowa State Cyclones celebrates his touchdown with offensive lineman Julian Good-Jones #51 in the first quarter against the Kansas Jayhawks at Memorial Stadium on November 3, 2018 in Lawrence, Kansas. (Photo by Ed Zurga/Getty Images) /

DraftKings Wide Receiver Picks November 17

Top Tier:

A.J. Brown is a guy you want in the lineup, even against a pretty good pass defense. However, you can make a case for Lil’Jordan Humphrey over him here. Iowa State’s secondary has been torched at times, and Texas is good enough to do that. I would rather mitigate the risk with Brown by paying up for Humphrey and use Lodge as my go to Ole Miss receiver instead.

Kalija Lipscomb had a big game against Missouri, and Mississippi’s pass defense is just as bad. We could see another big game from Lipscomb, who may get lost in the shuffle with all of the other good receivers out there.

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Middle Tier:

It’s hard to pick a piece of the Oklahoma passing game and stick with it. Hollywood has had the bigger games recently, but Lamb still seems to be the guy when they absolutely need yards. I’m likely avoiding this entirely. It’s just like West Virginia. Too many capable pieces.

Hakeem Butler is a much better bet. I’m stacking the Iowa State passing game in this one in one lineup, and using Butler in every lineup.

Steven Sims could be a sneaky play here. Sims had his best game against Kansas State last week, and will be able to find holes in the porous Oklahoma secondary as well.

Dedrick Snelson has been the target that Milton looks for most lately because teams are wise to Gabriel Davis. You could make a living in the middle tier of receivers tonight and come out pretty close to if you used three top guys. There is a ton of value in this tier.

If Cincinnati is going to pull the upset, Kahlil Lewis is going to have to have a big game. Rashad Medaris is worth a look in the value tier as well.

Bargain Shoppers:

Texas A&M has actually been hurt on deep passes, but I do question UAB’s ability to go deep. If they can, Xavier Ubosi is the best pick to be on the receiving end of it. Andre Wilson is worth a look as well because he is getting some carries out of the backfield to get him the ball.

I will just say this: Deshaunte Jones is WAY TOO CHEAP against Texas. Jeremiah Booker looks good as a secondary option against the OU defense as well.

I kind of expect Clemson’s passing game to operate much like it did against the strong defense of Boston College last week, which could mean another big game for Hunter Renfrow. Duke’s D is pretty strong, and Renfrow is the right guy to chip away at it.

Next. ESPN College Pick Em picks week 12. dark

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