DraftKings NBA Picks November 17: Avoid the high priced pitfalls

WASHINGTON, DC – NOVEMBER 14: Dwight Howard #21 of the Washington Wizards reacts after a play against the Cleveland Cavaliers during the first half at Capital One Arena on November 14, 2018 in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Will Newton/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Picks November 17: Avoid the high priced pitfalls

Saturday is even bigger than Friday with 10 NBA games, but only nine make the cut for the main DraftKings tournament. The 5pm eastern start between the Nets and Clippers misses the cut, and takes some of the value off of this slate.

DraftKings NBA Point Guards:

Best Bets:

Jrue Holiday ($8,100): Elfrid Payton was on the court for a whopping eight minutes before getting hurt again. That just thrusts Holiday back into the primary ballhandling role again, where he has flourished so far. Holiday still gets his shots there, but he has at least eight assists in ten straight games. I’ll take that with good shooting any day. The matchup says Oladipo is a good pick, but I’m not touching him after last night. The top of point guard is littered with land mines.

Dennis Schroder ($7,900): That’s back to back 40+ DraftKings point games for Schroder, and a third is inevitable against the Suns if Westbrook remains out. There are rumblings that Westbrook may play, so keep a close eye on this. If Westbrook plays, it destroys the value of both Schroder and Westbrook because Westy likely wont be 100%, and likely wont play a full game against the Suns.

Honorable Mention:

Kyrie Irving ($7,700): Much like last night, Kyrie looks cheap for what he is capable of. The only thing giving me pause is Irving’s monster night last night. Why? The game went into overtime. The Celtics aren’t likely to rest Irving all together, but this team is so loaded at guard that they may limit his minutes.

Jamal Murray ($6,300): The Pelicans will pace up anyone, even the sluggish Nuggs. Murray was a points per minute monster in the blowout of Atlanta on Thursday. If Murray sees his normal 35 minutes in this one, he could come close to 6x value tonight. Of course, with as crazy as the NBA has been this year, 6x value barely puts you in the money most nights. There is clear upside here though.

Dark Horses:

Lonzo Ball ($5,400): On paper this is not a great matchup, with Rondo out for a month or so, Ball is pretty much the only point guard the Lakers have. Ball is going to be playing as many minutes as he can handle now, but he is still priced as a guy in a timeshare. Until the price adjusts, I’m okay using Ball in any matchup, even one like this that looks tough.

Monte Morris ($4,300): Many, including myself, were big on Morris starting over Murray on Thursday, but that actually killed his value. Morris was an afterthought on offense with the first teamers. Now he will be back on the second team where he can resume his huge numbers against the Pelicans’ second unit. Many will be off of Morris, which is all the more reason to use him as a value pick again.

Jeremy Lin ($3,900): Allow me to present an alternative to the Bulls spinning wheel at point. Arcidoacono, Blakeney, and Shaq Harrison are all seeing about the same minutes. I would rather go with a somewhat sure thing in Lin. Lin has back to back 6x value games, and I don’t think it’s all because Young couldn’t hit a shot. The Hawks are going to give Lin decent run at both guards slots, so he is worth a look if you need to go really cheap.

My pick: Holiday(PG), Ball(G), Morris(UTIL); Murray(PG), Shaun Livingston(G)

ORLANDO, FL – NOVEMBER 14: Jimmy Butler #23 of the Philadelphia 76ers is seen during a NBA game against the Orlando Magic at Amway Center on November 14, 2018 in Orlando, Florida. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Alex Menendez/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Shooting Guards:

Best Bets:

Devin Booker ($8,000): Kawhi destroyed the Celtics again last night. If only he could play them every game! I still have feeling that, like Kyrie, Toronto may give him extra rest against a Bulls team that isn’t much of a threat. I’ll move on to Booker. While this isn’t a great matchup on paper, Booker has started to contribute in other ways even when his shot isn’t falling. That gives Booker a more consistent floor to go with his massive upside.

Jimmy Butler ($7,500): Butler’s second game in Philly went much better as he was 12-15 from the floor while dishing out seven assists. Butler’s arrival has hurt Simmons the most, and maybe affected Embiid a little. However, if Embiid is forced to miss this game, Butler is the biggest lock of the season at this low of a price. Stay tuned!

Honorable Mention:

Klay Thompson ($7,300): We can just chalk up Thursday night as an outlier, right? Well, if it weren’t for all the drama in OakTown this week, maybe. Still, this is a dream matchup for Klay, and up until the disaster against the Rockets, Thompson was doing really well with Curry out. I may even trust Thompson more than KD tonight.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,000): This whole season has been a sophomore slump for Mitchell thus far, but his game last night against Philly provides some hope. Boston is a tough matchup, but I do kind of get the feeling that the Celtics are going to rest some people after the overtime game last night. If they do, Mitchell is worth a look to see if he can build off of last night and to capitalize on low ownership.

Dark Horses:

Gordon Hayward ($5,300): It’s the revenge game for Hayward, but the bad news is it comes on the heels of a game in which Hayward played 39 minutes. Boston brought him along slowly over the first month, but playing him the night after he notched 39 minutes seems like a big leap for the Celtics. I have a feeling they are going to sit Hayward all together, which is unfortunate given the narrative and Hayward’s 36.25 DraftKings points night last night. If Hayward isn’t limited in any way, I’m all in for this price.

Jeremy Lamb ($5,100): We saw the struggling Donovan Mitchell come up big against he Sixers last night, so it is certainly possible that a hot Lamb could put up huge numbers here. Of course, that is contingent on Charlotte keeping his minutes up. Lamb played more than 30 minutes for the first time all season against the Cavs and he responded with 37.5 DraftKings points. Don’t be surprised if Lamb turns in another outing like that.

Terrence Ross ($5,100): Ross has seven straight games of more than 20 DraftKings points, going over 25 in four straight and five of the seven. The Lakers are mostly a mess defensively, so Ross can put up big numbers once again on the starters or the bench. It really doesn’t matter at this point.

My pick: Thompson(SG); Ross(SG)

SACRAMENTO, CA – NOVEMBER 10: LeBron James #23 of the Los Angeles Lakers gets ready before their game against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center on November 10, 2018 in Sacramento, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Small Forwards:

Best Bets:

LeBron James ($11,200): LeBron’s price sank to its lowest point of the season on Wednesday. All The King did was rack up 80 DraftKings points on the Blazers to send his price way back up. It’s to a point to me where I don’t want to pay it, especially considering Orlando’s good defense of the position so far this year. However, this is LeBron back in the east for one night. We could see another big game here.

Kevin Durant ($10,600): Durant was about the only Warrior with a decent stat line against Houston on Thursday, and he was still way short of where we needed him. I understand a Durant fade tonight, and I will admit that it’s going to be hard for me to use him, but this is a great matchup for the entire team, and a great chance for KD to re-establish his dominance with Curry out.

Honorable Mention:

Paul George ($9,900): I’ll make this as simple as possible. If Westbrook is out again, you couldn’t pay me to not use George in this matchup. If Westbrook plays, you couldn’t pay me to use George at this price.

T.J. Warren ($6,000): The drop at SF is steeper than at any other position tonight. On paper this may look like a bad matchup, but Warren put up 34.5 DraftKings points against this same team on on Monday. Warren is on fire right now, and is honestly too cheap at this price. He has at least 42 DraftKIngs points in three of the last four games.

Dark Horses:

Jae Crowder ($4,500): Crowder ate his former team alive in the first meeting this year, putting up 39 DraftKings points on them. That was three games ago. Crowder barely has 39 DraftKings points (41.75) in the three games since. That is the kind of risk you are dealing with tonight, but there could be a handsome reward waiting.

Juancho Hernangomez ($4,100): Hernangomez dominated against the Hawks with 40.25 DraftKings points. It was also his third straight game logging over 30 minutes. Atlanta was the only blowout in that span, so Hernangomez is going to see good minutes regardless. There is strong upside with him against the up-tempo Pelicans.

James Ennis ($4,000): The fact that Ennis plays better defense than both Tucker and Eric Gordon has landed him back to back games of big minutes and big production. Ennis has 58.75 DraftKIngs points in the last two games. He is a must play for value while his price is this low. Send a thank you card to Carmelo after you lock in Ennis.

My pick: Warren(SF), Hernangomez(F); Ennis(SF)

NEW ORLEANS, LA – OCTOBER 19: Anthony Davis #23 of the New Orleans Pelicans reacts during a game against the Sacramento Kings at the Smoothie King Center on October 19, 2018 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Power Forwards:

Best Bets:

Anthony Davis ($11,100): I could bore you with numbers, but I wont. I’m all about simplicity tonight. Davis is healthy. Play him. Period. No other player hits 6x value at this price with any kind of consistency. Davis not only hits that, but routinely smashes it.

Aaron Gordon ($7,700): Gordon, now healthy for the time being, has actually been very consistent over the last couple of weeks. Gordon’s calling card is usually inconsistency, so it’s really nice to see this. Gordon has between 36 and 44 DraftKings points in each of his last six outings. If he goes outside of that range against the Lakers, I would bet it’s because he goes above 44. I like the floor and the upside on Gordon right now.

Honorable Mention:

Domantas Sabonis ($6,400): The Hawks may well be the worst defensive team in the NBA. They are in the bottom five at every position right now. I may not trust Oladipo or Collison, but this is a place where the frontcourt can crush the depleted Hawks. Sabonis has at least 30 DraftKings points in five of his last six games. Six of seven is pretty much a certainty here.

Pascal Siakam ($6,200): Siakam has at least 28 DraftKings points in each of his last seven games, topping 30 in six of those, and in nine of the last ten. You may not be able to trust Ibaka, but the consistency of Siakam is worth paying for in cash games, and is also worth your while in GPP formats.

Paul Millsap ($6,200): Millsap has at least 48 DraftKings points in two of the last three games. The one he missed was against a strong Houston front. I don’t know if Millsap is back or not, but he can dominate when the matchup is right. The Pelicans are offensive juggernauts, but don’t really defend well. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Millsap in the 40’s once again.

Dark Horses:

Jabari Parker ($5,700): Parker did get his revenge on the Bucks last night with 35 DraftKings points in that one. It’s going to be tougher going against Toronto, but Parker’s strong play as a starter makes him a decent mid range value play. With both Markkanen and Portis still out, we know the minutes are there for Parker.

Omari Spellman ($4,200): Keep an eye on the status of Taurean Prince here. Spellman played more minutes and played very well with Prince out. There are a lot of injuries in the Atlanta frontcourt right now, so Spellman should get decent run regardless. It is just more guaranteed if Prince is sidelined again.

Jonas Jerebko ($3,700): Dallas isn’t all that big up front, so I would expect Jerebko to see the best run of minutes with Draymond out tonight. The upside is limited since Jerebko has only played more than 25 minutes once all season (it was 26 minutes). Still, I expect strong per dollar value here.

My pick: Sabonis(PF); Davis(PF), Jerebko(F)

PHILADELPHIA, PA – OCTOBER 18: Joel Embiid #21 of the Philadelphia 76ers reacts against the Chicago Bulls at the Wells Fargo Center on October 18, 2018 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

DraftKings NBA Center

Best Bets:

Joel Embiid ($10,700): The price on Embiid is a little tougher to pay considering the swollen hand issue and on the second game of a back to back. I guess we really will find out if Embiid can beat a team with one hand tied behind his back. Do we want to pay to see it? It seems to me like this is a situation best avoided, but Embiid is a special talent. If anyone can do it, he can.

Nikola Vucevic ($8,400): The Lakers duo of McGee and Chandler isn’t stopping anyone in the middle right now, so I would much rather go with Vucevic over Jokic in the battle of Nikolas. Jokic was solid against the Pelicans in the first meeting, but his price is once again to the point where Jokic only hits value against really weak teams in the middle. Vucevic has a much better matchup, and is $800 cheaper.

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Honorable Mention:

Steven Adams ($7,200): The questionable status of Westbrook is holding every Thunder player hostage. Adams has been big with Westbrook out, putting up at least 35 DraftKings points in every one of those games. If Westbrook is back, I don’t trust Adams either since his rebounds and shots go down dramatically with Russ on the court.

Julius Randle ($6,500): The numbers say this matchup isn’t very good. Randle will tell us exactly what we can do with those numbers. He racked up 44.5 DraftKings points on Denver in just 26 minutes a couple of weeks ago. If anything, Randle has been even better overall since then. I expect another strong game from Randle here.

Serge Ibaka ($6,100): The Bulls are either beat up or inept up front with the exception of Carter. While I do think that Carter becomes a good defender at some point, he isn’t now. Ibaka has been huge for the Raptors this year, and is thriving along Siakam. Expect the Toronto front to dominate the Bulls up front. Ibaka even had a strong game against Boston last night.

Dark Horses:

Wendell Carter ($5,200): Carter is almost exclusively a cash game play since he doesn’t have a ton of upside and he has at least 20 DraftKings points in every game since becoming the starter. However, with Carter’s price on the rise, he is hitting 5x value less and less making him far less attractive in GPP formats.

Myles Turner ($4,600): Turner is a good play when the matchup is right. It was last night against Miami, and it is tonight against a weak and bruised Atlanta front. If Collins does make his season debut tonight, Turner is a slightly less appealing option, but I don’t think Collins plays a ton of minutes. This is still a strong value spot for Turner.

Kevon Looney ($3,700): Predicting who will get the better run with Draymond out is just like predicting who will succeed with Curry out. I like Livingston if gambling on a guard because of the much lower price, but it is much more convoluted up front since the prices are nearly identical. Looney is probably the safest pick since his minutes have been consistent whether Draymond plays or not. The bad news is that Looney is still the bench option when Green is out as well.

My pick: Vucevic(C); Embiid(C), Ibaka(UTIL)

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